Russia’s Syria Gamble

                             by David Parmer

The question is not why are the Russians in Syria now; they have been there since the 1970s. Russia’s last naval base outside its homeland is in Tartus, Syria. And Syria buys Russian weapons, and has done so for a long time. No, the question is why has Russia stepped up in the autumn of 2015, deployed more than 50 aircraft of all types and put 4,000 pairs of boots on the ground, and started a massive bombing campaign in support of the Assad regime that reportedly has exceeded 1,000 sorties? Why?

The simplest reason is probably that Russia sees intervention in the Syrian conflict as being in its self-interest. Putting aside Russia’s natural support for its main Middle East client, which is a “no-brainer”, there are two likely reasons for Russia’s current Syria policy:

1) Foreign Fighters: There are an estimated 7,000 Russian fighters who have joined ISIS in Syria as well as 1700 of Russian origin in Iraq. It is likely that Russia would rather take on and destroy these fighters here (Syria) and now than have them become battle hardened and bring their extremism back to Mother Russia.

2) To Prevent a Failed-State Vacuum: Russia’s (and everybody except ISIS’s) worst nightmare would be Syria turning into another Somalia. A lawless, wild west in Russia’s back yard is simply not an option. So Russia has decided to prop up its client Assad and keep him in the game deciding that the alternative (a failed state and a power vacuum) would be unthinkable. One way of looking at this would be to consider that even though Russia is keeping the house of cards upright for its own purposes, it is doing the region and the world a service, since, in our inner-connected world, there is no more “over there”—in our digi-sphere we are all in it together.

Is Russia’s ploy going to work? Is the Russian variable the one that will stabilize things in this conflict? Perhaps it is too early to tell, but Mr. Putin has put his chips on the table and the wheel is spinning.

Foreign Fighters In Syria:

https://www.rt.com/news/320705-russia-isis-syria-asean/

Putin on Foreign Fighters

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/612755/Vladimir-Putin-warns-thousands-Russian-Jihadis-fighting-Islamic-State-Syria

Photo: Russian Federation MOD

 

Ma-Xi Meeting, What’s Up?

                              by David Parmer

Republic of China President Ma Ying-jeou will meet PRC President Xi Jinping on November 7, 2015 in Singapore. The schedule includes a short meeting followed by dinner. “Historic” is certainly appropriate to describe this meeting, as heads of the two governments have not met since the Nationalists (KMT) fled to Taiwan in 1949.

But what is the purpose of the sudden meeting? Reuters reported that President Ma said that the meeting is about normalizing future relations and helping reduce hostilities in the short term, but it is not about the January 2016 Taiwan elections.

121108120057-xi-jinping-file-story-top_AAHC

All things being equal, the KMT will chalk up a loss to the opposition Democratic Progressive Party in the 2016 elections. It looks like it will not be a question of a loss, but rather how big a loss. The KMT apparently realized this and dumped its candidate Hung Hsiu-chu so that it did not suffer a humiliating defeat. Party chair and New Taiwan Mayor Eric Chu has stepped up as the KMT’s presidential candidate.

One reason the KMT is so unpopular is that many see it getting too cozy with the PRC to the detriment of Taiwan’s political and economic interests. So why the meeting? How can the meeting possibly help the KMT in the short run?

Please log in an give us your thoughts on this issue.

 

COP21—Tackling Climate Change in Paris

                 Paris 2015 At A Glance

What: 21st Session of the Conference on the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21/CMP11).

When: November 30, 2015—December 11, 2015

Where: Paris, France Le Bourget

Who: World leaders from 80 countries including those of the USA, China, India and Great Britain, and 40,000 delegates from 195 nations.

Why: The meeting will attempt to arrive at an universal and legally-binding agreement to limit greenhouse gassed to keep global warming within 2°C of pre-industrial levels. The meeting will also attempt to generate $100 billion/year support for developing countries to combat climate change.

What else: The World Climate Summit will be held on December 6, 2015 during COP21. The World Climate Summit has been held in parallel with COP since 2010. It Is the premier forum for business, finance and government to exchange views during COP.

Your thoughts: Do you have any thoughts on COP21 or climate change that you would like to share? Log in and let us know.

 logocop21-ppal_reduit

http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/cop21-cmp11/what-cop21-cmp11

Photo: Paris by night. NASA.

 

PM Abe: “The TPP Will Make Our Lives Richer”

                    “Let Us Stop Fearing Reform”

Led by Japan and the United States, countries that share the values of freedom, democracy, fundamental human rights, and the rule of law will work on creating an “ocean of liberty and prosperity” in the Asia-Pacific region. Yesterday, an agreement in principle was reached on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

So began Mr. Abe at his press conference on October 6, 2015. Mr. Abe outlined the key points of the TPP agreement from the Japanese standpoint. He began by explaining how the agreement would benefit Japan in three areas:

  • Making lives richer
  • Providing Opportunities
  • Protecting what must be protected

Mr. Abe then went on to answer questions from reporters about the agreement. The full text is printed below.

______________________________________________

Press Conference by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

Tuesday, October 6, 2015

Opening Statement by Prime Minister Abe

(Introduction)

We are now seeing the long-awaited start of a new Asia-Pacific century.

Led by Japan and the United States, countries that share the values of freedom, democracy, fundamental human rights, and the rule of law will work on creating an “ocean of liberty and prosperity” in the Asia-Pacific region. Yesterday, an agreement in principle was reached on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

A vast economic zone on an unprecedented scale involving 800 million people, and accounting for close to 40% of the world’s economy is to be created. Japan will be playing a central role in this process. The TPP truly constitutes a grand plan for the long-term future of our nation.

(TPP: Making Our Lives Richer)

The TPP will make our lives richer.

It does not only mean that “national borders for trade” will disappear, allowing us to buy diverse products from around the world at lower prices. 

It will also mean that consumers will increasingly be able to avoid the regrets that come from being sold pirated and counterfeit goods. Phone roaming charges while traveling overseas may also become cheaper, and the personal information of consumers will also now be firmly protected as it travels throughout cyberspace. 

The benefits of the TPP agreement do not only lie in the removal of tariffs. Cheap and shoddy goods and services will be rejected. The TPP is an ambitious initiative to share fair common rules in which high levels of quality in a wide range of different fields, from services to intellectual property, will be properly recognized and appreciated, and to construct a sustainable economic zone.

(TPP: Providing Opportunities)

The TPP will provide us with opportunities.

The main beneficiaries of those will be small- and medium-sized businesses and small-scale firms that possess brilliant and outstanding capabilities, and people in the local regions who produce unique regional specialties.

The tariff on eyeglass frames, which is currently nearly 10%, will be reduced to zero. This is a perfect opportunity to further expand the global presence of Fukui Prefecture’s “Sabae brand” eyeglass frames. 

The 20% tariff on Japanese tea will be reduced to zero. The day may soon arrive when Shizuoka and Kagoshima Prefectures become known as among the world’s leading tea producing areas. 

Tariffs on ceramics, which in some countries exceed 30%, will also be reduced to zero. I am sure people around the world will be charmed by Japan’s finest traditional ceramics, such as Mino ceramic ware from Gifu Prefecture and Arita and Imari porcelain from Saga Prefecture.

It is my hope that highly motivated people in the local regions and youths will take full advantage of opportunities on the world stage that the TPP provides them with.  

(Pressing Forward Where We Should, Protecting What Must Be Protected)

There will be new rules to protect the investments of those who dive boldly into rapidly expanding overseas markets.

When investing in TPP member countries, the governments of those countries will no longer request transfers of technologies or make other such unjust demands. Our persistent efforts in the negotiations have ensured that Japan’s propositions are incorporated into the agreement.  

Over the course of our involvement in the TPP negotiations, we have repeatedly talked of the principle of pressing forward assertively in areas where we should, while also protecting what must be protected. 

Japan’s world-class universal healthcare system will be staunchly maintained. Food safety and security standards will also be tightly guarded. Japan’s sovereign right to implement legitimate regulations will in no way be compromised. Stipulations confirming this have been incorporated into the agreement with regard to Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provisions.

The promises that the Liberal Democratic Party made to the nation prior to Japan’s participation in the TPP negotiations have all been firmly kept. I would like to stress that fact today.

Above all, our stance of not accepting the elimination of tariffs with no sanctuary was a major prerequisite for our participation in the negotiations.

We strived right to the very end to protect important products that have long underpinned Japan’s agricultural sector—particularly, rice, wheat and barley, sugar cane, sugar beet, beef and pork, and dairy products.  

As a result, we were successful in ensuring these products were excluded from the list of tariff elimination. We also acquired the establishment of a new safeguard mechanism with which to restrict imports as an emergency measure in the event that imports of those agricultural products were ever to suddenly increase rapidly.

I believe that by actively leading talks during the tough negotiations, we were able to obtain the best possible result from the perspective of Japan’s national interest.

(TPP Task Force)

However, I am well aware that there are many who are very concerned that they may no longer be able to continue farming activities once Japan enters the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The Government is as determined as ever to continue to protect Japan’s beautiful rural landscapes, traditional villages, and agricultural tradition of extending helping hands to each other—aspects of Japan that are our national pride and constitute an integral part of our national character. 

I will be taking the lead in working on this initiative. I will establish a TPP Task Force that will include all Cabinet Ministers. The entire Government will take responsibility for implementing comprehensive measures to the fullest extent possible. I will begin issuing concrete instructions once Minister Amari arrives back in Japan and submits his report to me. 

I will work in a manner that is sympathetic to the concerns of farmers, taking all possible measures to make absolutely certain that agricultural producers can continue their work with peace of mind. One of those measures will be to ensure that, by taking necessary steps, the total distributed amount of rice — for which a new import ceiling will be set — does not increase. 

Agriculture is the very foundation of our nation. However, the farming population has dropped from over 16 million in the post-war period to the current figure of 2 million. This means that the farming population has decreased to one-eighth of its post-war size over these last 70 years, and the average age of those in the sector is now over 66. 

We have to consider the TPP agreement as a chance rather than a threat. We have to consider it as a catalyst to reform agriculture, making it possible for youth to passionately devote themselves to pioneering new horizons.

With the TPP agreement, the tariffs imposed on agricultural produce in many countries will be eliminated. 

Japan has many kinds of sweet and juicy fruit varieties that differ from those of other countries, including Hokkaido Prefecture’s melons and Oita Prefecture’s pears. The agreement provides a considerable opportunity for Japan’s famous and delicious rice varieties such as Niigata Prefecture’s “Koshihikari,” Miyagi Prefecture’s “Hitomebore,” and Aomori Prefecture’s “Tsugaru Roman” to take on the global market. 

Marbled Wagyu beef has apparently recently become popular amongst New Yorkers, who are particularly sensitive to new trends.

However, the 26% tariff that is imposed on the beef inevitably makes it an expensive product. This has acted as a major barrier to export.    

The TPP agreement will remove this barrier. No tariff will be imposed on the export volume up to 40 times more than the current level. In addition, in the future, all restrictions will be eliminated. I am certain that this presents a major opportunity to let people in the United States learn more about, and enjoy more of, Japan’s delicious Wagyu beef.

The Government intends to provide its full support to those who see the TPP agreement as an opportunity to tackle the global market.

(Conclusion)

For nearly 20 years, Japan’s economy has suffered the effects of deflation.

People feel undervalued and undercompensated no matter how much of an effort they make. An inward-looking mindset has been pervasive throughout Japan, and people have been reluctant to take on new challenges. I think everything is the result of such mindsets and fears. 

Domestic and overseas economic conditions are in continuous flux, affected by factors such as the ongoing effects of the low birthrate and aging population, economic globalization, and the rise of emerging countries.

Let us stop fearing reform. We must be brave and take on new challenges. Now is the time to innovate and to step out into a world that has now opened up.

The TPP agreement is only the start of this process. Beyond TPP, there is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), through which we will work together with other Asian nations to create even larger economic zones. We are also aiming to conclude EPA negotiations with Europe by the end of the year, and we will need to accelerate that process. I am determined that Japan continue to demonstrate its leadership.

70 years ago, Japan lost everything.

However, we were quick to participate in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and make progress with trade liberalization. We built up new industries such as automobile and electronics and boldly went into international competition. In only 20 years, we grew to become the world’s second largest economy after the United States.

Our current prosperity is thanks to the grueling efforts of our predecessors. Current generations also have a major responsibility to devote their energies to ensuring the further growth of Japan before passing the nation on to our children’s and grandchildren’s generations.

In order to fulfill this responsibility, and together with the people of Japan, I would like to take a new step forward here today. I would like to ask for the public’s understanding and support of Japan’s participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

I will end my opening statement here.

 

Questions and Answers

REPORTER (KOBAYASHI, HOKKAIDO SHIMBUN): My name is Kobayashi from Hokkaido Shimbun, one of the coordinators of the press club. 

Two years ago you made the decision to participate in the TPP negotiations after promising to the public that you would pursue the best path from the standpoint of Japan’s national interests. Although business figures have welcomed the agreement, people in agricultural organizations and others have suggested that certain aspects of the agreement including the new import ceiling on rice that you just mentioned runs counter to the Diet resolution which prioritizes the maintenance of inviolable areas of trade, including the five sensitive agricultural product categories, and does not rule out Japan’s exit from the negotiations if these could not be maintained. Do you believe that those inviolable areas of trade that Japan needs to protect are in fact protected under the agreement? Could you please also share with us specific details about the timing and scale of the measures to be implemented with the aim of helping domestic industries that will be affected by the agreement?

PRIME MINISTER ABE: In April 2013, with regard to the TPP negotiations, a resolution was adopted by the Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Committees of the House of Councillors and the House of Representatives. The resolution states that rice, wheat, beef, pork, milk products, sweetening resource products and other sensitive agricultural, forestry and fisheries products should be exempt or taken for re-negotiation so that they can continue to be reproduced; No approval should be given even to gradual elimination of tariffs beyond ten years; the top priority given to the holding out of the immunity of five sensitive products in the agriculture, forestry and fisheries industries, and should not hesitate to abandon them in case such a consideration could not be upheld. 

In the TPP negotiations, which aimed at coming up with a comprehensive and high-level agreement, the pressure to eliminate tariffs was extremely strong, but the Government heeded the resolution, and since our official participation in negotiations in July in 2013 we have continued persistent negotiation efforts in line with the resolution right to the very end. As a result, we were able to secure a large number of tariff elimination exemptions, including the five sensitive products, at a level unseen in other free trade agreements concluded by the United States and other nations in recent years. 

With support from the Diet resolution we negotiated tenaciously and in addition to firmly maintaining the State Trading System centered on the five sensitive products as well as maintaining the existing out-of-quota tariff rates applicable to tariff quota items, we were also able to gain approval for effective countermeasures such as the establishment of tariff quotas and safeguards and extended tariff reduction periods.

Agriculture is the very foundation of our nation, and it is the Government’s responsibility to protect Japan’s beautiful rural landscapes. I intend to make the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries industries a field in which ambitious producers can feel secure about continuing their production activities, and which inspire young people to participate.  

We will work on careful scrutiny of possible specific effects. Based on the findings, the Government will, in a responsible manner, put together a set of domestic measures before the Diet approval of the TPP agreement. I also intend to put in place thoroughgoing measures, in line with the measures that we have gained during the course of the negotiations.

REPORTER (NISHIGAKI, FUJI TELEVISION): I am Nishigaki from Fuji Television, one of the coordinators of the press club. I have a related question about the Cabinet reshuffle. A broad agreement has been reached through participation in the TPP negotiation process. One of the Cabinet’s recent policies is the Legislation for Peace and Security, and a minister responsible for that has been appointed and the Cabinet has been working on the issue, but now with this turning point I imagine there will be changes to the duties of Cabinet ministers.

With the upcoming Cabinet reshuffle you are going to pursue the idea of creating a society in which all one hundred million-plus citizens are each dynamically engaged, but how will Cabinet policy change with this turning point? Accordingly, what personnel will you be assigning? I would like to hear your thoughts on those points. 

PRIME MINISTER ABE: Solving the issues of a low birthrate and an aging population, as well as creating a society in which all one hundred million-plus citizens are each dynamically engage, is not a simple process that can be carried out according to a predetermined blueprint. In order to achieve ambitious targets such as raising the desired birthrate (the hypothetical birthrate which would be achieved if the people’s desires regarding marriage and child-rearing were to be realized) to 1.8 and reducing to zero the number of people who leave work in order to provide nursing care, it will be necessary for the Cabinet to work closely together as a team to draft and implement bold new policies that will not be shackled by conventional ideas.

The Minister for Promoting Dynamic Engagement of All Citizens, acting as a “control tower” for the initiatives, will be required to have a broad vision to break down the administrative vertical divides that exist among government ministries and agencies, creativity to establish bold policies, as well as the strong ability to achieve breakthroughs in order to ensure the realization of the policies.

The new Cabinet will not be one that makes displays of originality merely for the sake of it. Rather, it will be one that prioritizes getting down to work and achieving results. I hope to establish a truly new Cabinet that works hard to deliver results. That is the kind of personnel I hope to assign to Cabinet roles.

REPORTER: My name is Sieg from Reuters.

In April this year, Secretary of Defense of the United States Ashton Carter stated that passing the TPP Agreement was as important to him as another aircraft carrier. By this he implied that the TPP not only has economic merits, but it also has tremendous strategic significance in the region. Prime Minister, how do you view the strategic significance of the TPP in terms of the Japan-U.S. relations, Japan-China relations and for the region as a whole? In particular, what message will the TPP Agreement send to China?

PRIME MINISTER ABE: The TPP Agreement will create a free, fair and open international economic system in the Asia-Pacific region with countries that share the fundamental values of freedom, democracy, fundamental human rights and the rule of law and drastically strengthen the rule of law in economic aspects.

The deepening of mutually interdependent relations between such countries based on rules suitable to a new era, particularly in the case that China chooses to participate in this system in the future, will make a large contribution to the security of Japan and the stability of the Asia-Pacific region, and also have tremendous strategic significance.

The TPP, formed with the participation of the United States and Japan, the world’s largest and third-largest economies, will become the world’s largest economic zone. It is certain that the TPP will also give further momentum to the ongoing negotiations of the Japan-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA).

The new economic order, which the TPP will create, is not limited to the TPP alone. It will form the basis for creating rules in other initiatives, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the even larger initiative, the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP). It therefore is significant as it will become one of the standards for the 21st century world.

REPORTER: I am Matsumoto from Jiji Press.

Within the opposition parties there are those calling for disclosure of details and information concerning the TPP negotiations and those who believe that deliberations should take place in the near term in the Diet.

On the other hand, the Government and the ruling parties have indicated their intention to postpone the opening of the extraordinary session of the Diet. Prime Minister, how do you intend to respond to the opinions being raised by the opposition parties? Also, could you share with us your current views on the timing for the opening of the extraordinary session of the Diet?

PRIME MINISTER ABE: The TPP Agreement will provide consumers in Japan access to better overseas products conveniently at lower cost.

At the same time, if agricultural businesses produce outstanding products that gain a good reputation overseas, the TPP will enable these businesses to export their products to countries to which it had been difficult to export until now. You could say that the TPP will form an economic system in which added value can be properly and highly appreciated.

Mainly in the emerging economies of Asia, industrial products such as automobiles and automobile parts have been subject to high tariffs, but under the TPP Agreement almost all of these tariffs will ultimately be eliminated.

The TPP Agreement will also relax market entry regulations in the services and investment sectors, including finance and logistics, making it easier for financial institutions in the regions and convenience store chains, for example, to expand overseas. It is also expected that such measures as ensuring conditions for fair competition with state-owned enterprises and expanding entry into infrastructure markets will provide a significant boost to the overseas expansion of Japanese companies.

The harmonization of rules on intellectual property and strengthened measures to combat counterfeiting and piracy will assure the smooth overseas deployment of contents and regional brands that are distinctive strengths of Japan.

The TPP will also create major business opportunities for small- and medium-sized enterprises and leading medium-sized companies in the region. This may not be understood very well. Although people may think that the TPP provides opportunities only for large companies, it will surely create big opportunities for local and regional small- and medium-sized enterprises and micro-businesses.

The development of rules on e-commerce transactions via the internet will open the way for small- and medium-sized enterprises to expand their businesses throughout the Asia-Pacific region while continuing to stay in Japan.

The formulation of rules of origin will make it easier for small- and medium-sized enterprises to expand their businesses overseas, while maintaining their production bases in Japan.

In order for small- and medium-sized enterprises to utilize the advantages provided by the TPP to the maximum extent, the TPP Agreement incorporates a variety of mechanisms that aim to promote utilization of the TPP by small- and medium-sized enterprises, including enhancing information provision and holding seminars.

The TPP will also create advantages for consumers and workers. Consumers will be able to go online to order various products from overseas in an easy-to-use and secure environment. As the TPP incorporated robust rules to protect labor and environmental standards in each country, I believe that a level playing field for workers has been ensured.

I will make every effort to implement all possible measures to ensure that Japanese companies can make maximum use of the TPP Agreement and that the agreement leads to real economic revitalization and the revitalization of local regions.

The Government will continue to provide detailed explanations about the unbiased information of the TPP including the advantages it will provide for Japan.

With regard to your question about the extraordinary session of the Diet, I will be consulting closely with the ruling parties on this matter. As I and other ministers are scheduled to attend many international conferences and overseas events in November, I will consult with the ruling parties and come to a decision regarding the extraordinary session of the Diet.

In any event, the TPP Agreement must be ratified by the Diet and due deliberations in the Diet will of course take place.

PRIME MINISTER ABE: Thank you very much.

 

Asian Waters—Tumen River Development Moves Forward

                                  by David Parmer

Polluted, not very wide and forgotten—this seems to be an apt description of the Tumen river that flows for 521 km from Mount Paektu to the Sea of Japan, and borders China, Korea and Russia. Escapees from North Korea regularly cross the Tumen to China, but not Russia. This quiet river is scheduled to take center stage in the 21st century, and the agent of change is, of course, commerce, not politics.

Tumen River Map

Starting in 1990 at the Conference on Northeast Asian Economic and Technical Cooperation in Jilin, China there has been talk of creating an economic zone in the Tumen River area. Things moved slowly, and in 1991 the Tumen River Area Development Program (TRADP) was established. In 1995 five member countries agreed to a consultative commission. These countries were, Russia, China, DPRK, Mongolia and Republic of Korea. Re-named the Greater Tumen Imitative (GTI) in 2005, the organization looked at cooperation in Transport, Tourism, Energy, Investment and Environment. In 2012 mechanisms were created to support future development projects. The GTI says its purpose is to build “a great partnership for common prosperity between neighbours.”

The GTI strategic action plan aims to:

  • Promote the rehabilitation and construction of basic transportation infrastructure and major transportation hubs to support economic cooperation and development in the GTR; 
  • Deregulate the border-crossing procedures for the efficient movement of goods and passengers in the GTR; 
  • Create a favourable environment to facilitate trade and attract private sector investment in the GTR, and improve access to international financial institutions for both public and private sector investment; 
  • Promote the GTR as a globally attractive tourism destination and increase the cross-border tourist flows in the GTR; 
  • Establish an effective institutional mechanism for energy policy support and reduce non-physical barriers to energy transmission and trade in the GTR; 
  • Promote environmental sustainability in the GTR while conducting economic activities; 
  • Strengthen the partnerships with Japan and DPRK and their participation in GTI cooperation for common prosperity in NEA;  

Enhance the capacity of the GTI as a significant regional economic and political partnership in NEA and transition it into an international organisation.

These are big plans, and things seem to be moving. One of the most interesting developments was reported by the Washington Post on October 15, 2015. China has completed an high-speed rail line from Changchun to Hunchun, and South Korean companies have established the Hunchun Posco Hyundia International Logistics facility.

For the area to begin to achieve its potential much work still needs to be done, but things are moving forward. Eventually, traffic will flow down the Tumen to Rason port in North Korea and on to the Sea of Japan. When this happens, its real-development will have begun.

Greater Tumen Initative

http://www.tumenprogramme.org

 

Along the Silk Road to Tajikistan

First, the good news. Tajikistan has stunningly-beautiful mountain scenery and nature abounds. Next, 70% of the population is under 30, another good thing. More promising is the fact that the literacy rate is at 99%. Minerals found here include silver, gold, uranium and tungsten. Tajikistan also grows a lot of cotton. And by all accounts the people are friendly. Lastly, the Lonely Planet guidebook says this about Tajikistan:

Where ‘Great Game’ spies and explorers once ventured, Tajikistan’s awesomely dramatic highland landscapes are now testing playgrounds for hardy climbers, trekkers and adventure travellers. Nascent rural homestay programs mean you might stay in timelessly photogenic rural villages hosted by gold-toothed, white-bearded patriarchs in iridescent joma robes. (Lonely Planet, Tajikistan intro.)

500px-Tajikistan_regions_map

Now for the rest. Tajikistan is rated as the poorest nation in central Asia. The country, a former Soviet republic, has been independent since 1991. A civil war which pitted the government against radical Islamists following independence has repercussions being felt even today. Thirty five percent of the population is classified as below the poverty line. Much like in the Philippines, many workers are forced to seek employment overseas and remit the money to support families. This remittance economy is said to make up as much as half of GDP.

Tajikistan has a Russian military base in its capital, Dushanbe, and has ongoing military relations with the US. It has also conducted anti-terror drills with China.

The country’s long-serving president, Emomali Rakhmon heads a secularist government that, according to an RFE report, is cracking down on religious extremism. On August 28, 2015 the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan was banned and told to dissolve.

Besides terrorism, Tajikistan is also plagued with corruption, economic mis-management and drugs; it is a major transit point for drugs from Afghanistan headed for Russia and the outside world. Limited local poppy cultivation is also reported.

While Lonely Planet paints a rather rosy picture of travel in exotic Tajikistan, the US State Department is a bit less upbeat:

Terrorist attacks involving suicide bombers have occurred in Tajikistan and in neighboring Uzbekistan. Minor explosions occasionally occur in Dushanbe…

Terrorists may target residential areas, clubs and restaurants, places of worship, hotels, outdoor recreation events, and other venues. The limited number of facilities catering to Westerners in Tajikistan presents a heightened risk. (US Dept. of State, Bureau of Consular Affairs, website)

And Canada adds:

 Regional Advisory for areas bordering Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan

Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada advises against non-essential travel to the areas bordering Afghanistan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan because of security concerns. See Security for more information.

Regional Advisory for Gorno-Badakhshan

Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada advises against all travel to Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (province), including to the city of Khorough, due to the unpredictable security situation. See Security for more information. (Govt. of Canada, website)

Finally, what does the future hold for the country? Probably much of the same. It does not seem that the country’s two big challenges, radical Islam and drugs, will disappear any time soon. Economically, however, there might be a chance for Tajik life to improve across the board. Some spinoffs from the modern, re-vitalized Silk Road might trickle down to Tajikistan, and warm relations with China may help to create some real prosperity. With security and prosperity, anything is possible.

 

Photos:

Top: FRDA

Map: Wikitravel

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A News Story from the DPRK

Here is a news story published by the North Korean media on October 16, 2015. The subject is a visit by Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un to a military unit. What should be of interest are the assumptions and world view of the DPRK expressed in the article. It is easy enough to dismiss the article and its assumptions as “propaganda” but more useful to take it and similar writings as a starting point to develop strategy for solving difficult problems not only on the Korean peninsula, but for the whole neighborhood bordering the DPRK.

                         Kim Jong Un Inspects KPA Unit 350

Supreme Commander of the Korean People’s Army Kim Jong Un, first secretary of the Workers’ Party of Korea and first chairman of the National Defence Commission of the DPRK, inspected KPA Unit 350.

He went round the monument to field guidance of leader Kim Jong Il, the room for education in the revolutionary history and the room devoted to the history of the unit.

Watching the precious historic materials, he recalled the proud course covered by the unit for its development under the guidance of Kim Jong Il.

He stressed the need to intensify the education in undying leadership exploits of Kim Jong Il and train all servicepersons to be persons strong in idea and faith alike Kim Jong Il and a-match-for-a-hundred fighters crossing any high mountain and marshland at a go and stalwart warriors beating back any formidable enemy at a stroke.

He also toured the operation study room, military lecture room and the general training room to learn in detail about the unit’s combat duty and training.

He praised the officers and soldiers of the unit for having performed admirable feats in the training for this year out of their desire to adorn the 70th founding anniversary of the WPK with signal achievements in combat and political training.

The unit has a very important mission to discharge, the Supreme Commander said, advancing the tasks to be carried out by it in increasing its combat strength in every way.

Going round the library and soldiers’ hall of the unit, he said it should train servicepersons to be those possessed of versatile knowledge so that their military service may become a course of the revolutionary university. 

He underlined the need to direct efforts to intensifying the five-point education set forth by the Party in order to train all servicepersons to be indomitable fighters keeping their revolutionary faith though they may die.

He also went round a mess, daily provision store, bean store, etc.

Saying that to do supply service well for soldiers is essential to rounding off the combat preparations, he urged the commanding officers to always pay deep attention to it, mindful that the supply service is just for defending socialism.

Walking for a while in the compound of the unit command that reminds one of a rest home, he had talks with its commanding officers and acquainted himself with its management.

Pleased to see thick forests in surrounding mountains, he said the People’s Army should take the lead without fail in implementing the noble intention of the Party to turn the country into a thick woodland and greenery.

He gave the unit a pair of binoculars and an automatic rifle as gifts and posed for a picture with its service persons. Accompanying him were Hwang Pyong So and O Kum Chol. (Political News Team)

Photo and Story: Rodong Shinmum

Beijing—Washington Open Space Cooperation Dialogue

The US and China held the first meeting of the Civil Space Dialogue in Beijing on September 28, 2015, and promised to meet again in Washington D.C. in 2016.

That is certainly a good start. The precursor to this meeting was the U.S. China Strategic and Economic Dialogue held June 22-24, 2015 in Washington, where matters related to space were discussed.

In the September 28 meeting, satellite collision, space debris, space science and space weather were discussed as well as global satellite navigations systems. Both sides have expressed optimism for future cooperation.

Moreover, a Chinese experiment dealing with DNA research from the Beijing Institute of Technology will be sent to the International Space Station (ISS) by US company NanoRacks aboard a Space X cargo rocket.

The Wolf Amendment of 2011 is still in place. This law prohibits the NASA from cooperating with the People’s Republic on space matters. So how is the dialogue taking place? The June meeting was done by the State Department, which is not covered by the law, and the DNA research module launch is a commercial deal.

It is clear that cooperation in space is good for all nations, and that the US ban on working with China is outdated and counterproductive. Such cooperation can go a long way toward improving US-China relations, and further human ventures off planet. Do you have any thoughts on this topic? If so, please let us know.

Press Release: U.S. State Department

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/09/247394.htm

Press Release: State Council PRC

http://english.gov.cn/news/international_exchanges/2015/09/29/content_281475200710932.htm

Space.com: Chinese experiment to ISS

http://www.space.com/30337-chinese-experiment-international-space-station.html

Asian Waters—China’s Venerable Grand Canal

 The Grand Canal represents the greatest masterpiece of hydraulic engineering in the history of mankind, because of its very ancient origins and its vast scale, along with its continuous development and its adaptation to circumstances down the ages. It provides tangible proof of human wisdom, determination and courage. It is an outstanding example of human creativity, demonstrating technical capabilities and a mastery of hydrology in a vast agricultural empire that stems directly from Ancient China.   (UNESCO World Heritage List)

                 by David Parmer / Tokyo

Unlike China’s other great treasure, the Great Wall, the Grand Canal is not only an historical relic, but it is also a vibrant part of China’s culture and economy, important today as it was in the 13th century. The 1776 km Hangzhou-Beijing canal, or the Grand Canal, runs from Hangzhou in Zhejiang province through Jiangsu, Shandong, and Hebei provinces. In the North, its route passes Tianjin and ends up in Beijing.

Modern_Course_of_Grand_Canal_of_China

The Grand Canal was started in the late Spring and Autumn period (770-470 BC). The officially agreed upon date seems to be 486 BC. Various sections were linked together during the Sui Dynasty (581-618 AD) and the project reached completion and its near 2,000km length during the Yuan dynasty (1279-1386 AD). Today only the section from Hangzhou to Jining (see illustration above) is navigable. Some sections in the North have dried up and become impassable or are severely polluted. Historically the canal was used to transport grain from southern China to northern China. The bricks for the Forbidden City in Beijing and the timbers for the Ming Tombs also came north along the canal. Since the end of WWII it has been used to transport building materials and fuel. Estimates are that some 100,000 vessels ply the waters of the Grand Canal every year.

China’s rivers generally flow from west to east, and this is one reason why the south to north flow of the Grand Canal is so important. It not only permits the transport of goods from south to north, but also links five of China’s rivers. In addition to the Yangtze and Yellow rivers, it also links the Huaihe, Haihe and Qiantang rivers.

The Grand Canal is indeed an engineering marvel; it is 10 times longer than the Suez Canal and 22 times longer than the Panama Canal. It is also the longest artificial river in the world. The canal is 1.0m below sea level in Hangzhou but 38.5m above sea level in its modern navigational terminus and Jining in Shandong province. There are 24 locks along the river that make this possible.

Grand-Canal

In 2014, the once-neglected Grand Canal was declared an UNESCO World Heritage Site. It is valued for its cultural value as well as its ongoing contribution to China’s economy. Throughout history the canal has brought goods and culture from one part of vast China to the other. Efforts are ongoing to improve not only the maintenance of the waterway but also the communities along its way. It is clear that the Hangzhou-Beijing canal will continue to have a major influence on the region and the country in this century and for centuries to come.

 

UNESCO World Heritage Centre

http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1443

China Daily: Multi-part video series on Grand Canal in Chinese with English subtitles

http://video.chinadaily.com.cn/2013/1031/1518.shtml

 

Photos:

Top: China Discovery

Map: Wikipedia

Bottom: CNTO

 

South China Sea: U.S.—China Heading For A Collision?

According to a Navy Times article on September 7, 2015, the U.S. Navy is planning to send a surface ship to challenge China’s 12-nautical mile territorial limit around disputed islets in the South China Sea’s Spratly islands chain.

China has expressed concern about the possibility of such a move. Earlier this year, U.S. Defense secretary Ash Carter stated on May 27, 2015 at Pearl Harbor :

Second – and there should be no mistake, should be no mistake about this – the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world.

 If the U.S. Navy does enter the 12-nautical mile zone, the question is how will China react? Will Chinese vessels shadow, warn, or open fire on the U.S. vessel?

Some may see that as a dangerous game of brinksmanship on the part of both the U.S. and China. What is your opinion? Please leave your comments and let us know.

Photo: US Pacific Fleet via flickr