作者別: RG21管理者

                                    

                               by David Parmer

Jim Rogers is an American investor, author and financial commentator and world traveller whose thoughts and opinions have regularly appeared in the Washington Post, N.Y. Times, Forbes, Fortune, and the Wall Street Journal. His net worth is said to be $300 million. He is Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Breeland Interests Inc., and founder of the Rogers International Commodities Index.

Rogers was born in 1942 and grew up in Alabama. He attended Yale and Oxford, then worked briefly on Wall Street, where he founded the very successful Quantum Fund with international financier George Soros. (Quantum is said to be the most profitable hedge fund in history). At age 37, Rogers “retired” and moved on to other things including becoming a professor at Columbia University School of Business and hosting a TV show.

From 1990 to 1992 Rogers traveled the world by motorcycle logging 100,000 miles. In 1999 he again took a world tour by road, this time with his wife, visiting 116 countries. He has written a number of books including,

• A Bull In China
• Street Smarts
• Adventure Capitalist
• Hot Commodities
• Investment Biker
• A Gift To My Children

 In 2007 Rogers took has family and moved to Singapore where they now live. He has given two reasons for this. First he believes that the future lies in Asia, particularly China, and secondly in order to give his two daughters the best education possible (in the Singapore school system) and to have them become fluent speakers of Mandarin Chinese.

There are  investment opportunities in Myanmar, Russia, and even North Korea as well as China according to Rogers. He is not enthusiastic about India, although in a recent interview with Indian media he said he hoped that Prime Minister Modi could make the necessary reforms to deal with the Indian economy including dealing with an entrenched bureaucracy. Rogers is a frequent guest and commentator on a variety of media. He is very much at ease, always charming, often insightful and never dull.

 Here are some of his thoughts on a number of subjects:

“China is the next great country in the world.” ( J.R. Daily Ticker 13 May 2014)

“China is going to be the most important country in the 21st century whether we like it or not.” (J.R. Sophie Co. Rt.com 26 May 2014)

“China will have plenty of setbacks along the way as does every country, company, family and individual that rises.” ( J.R. Business Insider 17 Feb. 2014)

 “The most sensible skill that I can give anybody born in 2003 is a perfect command of Mandarin.” (J.R. Business Insider 26 Dec. 2011)

 “My top three currencies are the U.S. Dollar, the Chinese Renminbi and the Hong Kong Dollar.” (J.R.  Jim Rogers Talks Markets 27 March 2015)

 

 

                 Oct. 2014 – 21 Asian countries sign on to AIIB   (Photo: People’s Daily)

The deadline for joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) as a founding member is March 31, 2015 . Now, in late March 2015, despite U.S. opposition to the bank, it seems everyone is on board: 22 Asian nations, the Europeans  (UK, France, Germany Italy) and even Australia. Only South Korea and Canada are still on the fence.

 The bank is a done deal, and most observers believe the U.S. made a big mistake by opposing the AIIB, and that it made that mistake very publicly. The U.S. had its reasons for its opposition: it was concerned whether the bank world maintain high standards, be transparent and observe environmental and social safeguards.

The U.S. asked its friends and allies to take a “wait and see” attitude concerning the above points before joining the bank.

 The U.S. has strong influence in the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the Asian Development Bank. Some observers believed that with the AIIB, China would not only get to set the agenda, but also use the bank as a tool of “soft power.”

U.S. friends and allies contended that by joining the bank their very presence will ensure that China runs the bank according to international standards, and will not be able to use it as a tool for its geopolitical agenda.

 One fact that often gets overlooked in this discussion is that there is a real need for funds for Asian infrastructure development.  Estimates of capital needed between 2010-2020 by the Asian Development Bank run to $776 billion. With the present institutions in place, there is a real shortfall of development capital.  Hence the AIIB is a good thing for the region and its growing economies. China’s CCTV ran a story on March 19 with the headline: “China-proposed AIIB is a gift to the world.” The piece ended with the writer suggesting that the U.S. get on board and lend its expertise to the project.

And already it looks like the U.S. is doing damage control. A Wall Street Journal article dated March 22 reports that the U.S. is now holding talks with the Chinese about possible cooperation with the new bank. It seems unlikely that the U.S. will join the AIIB, but cooperation might be another matter.

One thing that can be taken away from this story is the rising arc of Chinese power and influence and the waning arc of post-war U.S. power that has been ascendant and supreme for the past 70 years. In the realm of history, the story of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank will be like a few raindrops on the ocean-maybe a footnote at best.  But what has happened this spring of 2015 around the issue is a major shift. The friends and allies of the U.S. decided to go their own way, publicly and without remorse. And once done, they will do again. This may be the point when history says the post-war period was finally over.

 Turkish Weekly Article on AIIB

http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/182018/china-led-aiib-attracts-more-and-more-european-members.html 

CCTV Article on AIIB

http://english.cntv.cn/2015/03/19/ARTI1426756432464213.shtml

Wall Street Journal Article on Cooperation With AIIB

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-seek-collaboration-with-china-led-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-1427057486

Asia Society China File: What Went Wrong With U.S. Strategy

http://www.chinafile.com/conversation/what-went-wrong-us-strategy-chinas-new-bank-and-what-should-washington-do-now

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                                      by David Parmer / Tokyo

 Throughout his career Joe Biden has been seen as the straight-talking Average Joe, the man of the people. (For years he took an ordinary Amtrak commuter train from his home in Delaware to his office in Washington.) Senator Biden and now Vice President Biden has often spoken his mind bluntly and frankly, and even mis-spoken. The gregarious Biden is often taken to task for his gaffes and faux pas, causing some to regard him solely as a very likeable Uncle Joe. But style is not the only thing Biden brings to the table. He has wide and varied political and international experience and personal relationships with leaders around the world.

 Joe Biden was born on November 20, 1942 at Scranton, in the heart of Pennsylvania’s coal country. In 1955 his family moved to the state of Delaware. He attended the University of Delaware and then went on to obtain a law degree at the University of Syracuse. After setting up a law office in Delaware and working in local politics he ran for the senate from Delaware and won against his Republican opponent. The 29-year-old Biden was one of the youngest senators in U.S. history. He worked on several powerful senate committees including the Foreign Relations Committee and the Senate Judiciary Committee. During his career Senator Biden worked on a variety of important issues including the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty with Russia, the admission of new NATO partners. With his wide experience he was early on considered a foreign policy expert.

In 1987 Senator Biden entered the race for president, but withdrew after a poor showing at the polls. In 2007, he again made another run for president with similar results. Then Senator Barack Obama asked him to be his running mate, and in 2008 Obama defeated Senator John McCain and was elected president. In 2010 Vice President worked on the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russia. In 2012 President Obama and Vice President Biden were re-elected for another 4-year term.

During his time as Vice President Biden has not only advised the president, but used his immense experience and relationships in the Senate to further the Obama agenda. Now, as the Obama presidency winds down, the question is will Joe Biden make a third run at being president?

As of March 2015, he has not said “No.” But neither has he said that he is in the race. For the Democrats it depends whether former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will run or not. It appears that if she does then Biden will stay out of the race. But if she doesn’t run, then we might see Joe Biden run for a third time, and maybe just make it this time. Biden has a solid record and experience that not many can match. On the minus side is his age: he is about the same age as Ronald Regan was when he was president. And his straight speaking style might be used against him in the cut and thrust of partisan politics. In a New Yorker piece on Joe Biden by Evan Osnos, President Obama wonders if either Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden want to put themselves through another presidential campaign. At this point the Average Joe is not saying, but it is clear that he and others are watching and waiting as the clock ticks down to 2016.

 Biden Biography White House:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/vice-president-biden

 New Yorker Article: The Biden Agenda

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2014/07/28/biden-agenda

Vice President Joe Biden and President Barack Obama (Photo: White House.gov)

 

                                                            (Photo: Hong Kong Gov.)

In June 2014 an unofficial poll was taken in Hong Kong on universal suffrage by non-governmental political groups.The BBC reported that about 20% of registered voters took part.The question of universal suffrage was raised, and this is directly linked with how the Hong Kong chief executive should be elected. The question of the election of the Chief Executive and universal suffrage are covered in Article 45 of the Basic Law.

Article 45

The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be selected by election or through consultations held locally and be appointed by the Central People’s Government.

The method for selecting the Chief Executive shall be specified in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress. The ultimate aim is the selection of the Chief Executive by universal suffrage upon nomination by a broadly representative nominating committee in accordance with democratic procedures.

 But “the devil is in the details” and there is a fundamental disagreement between independent political groups, pro-Beijing groups and the Hong Kong government. The disagreement has to do mainly with the nominating process for Chief Executive.Those against the government position want universal suffrage and direct nomination of the Chief Executive.

The National People’s Congress (NPC) stated its position on the issue on August 31, 2014. The document advocated universal suffrage for the 2017 election and held that the nominating committee should decided on 2-3 candidates to be chosen by popular vote.(Link to document below)  As of March 2015 this position has not changed.  At the same time a referendum on this issue has been proposed by the opposition but vetoed by the Hong Kong government.

In the lead-up to the 2017 election, it looks as if the Beijing government, NPC and Hong Kong government will not budge on this issue. Nor are the various opposition groups likely to give up their demands. It is hard to tell now whether mass protests similar to last year’s Occupy Central will take place once schools are on summer holiday, or if more organized anti-demonstration activities will occur. Whatever the case, this issue will remain clearly in focus for the rest of this year and into next year.

The Basic Law, Full Text:

http://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/

NPC on Hong Kong Basic Law, August 31, 2014:

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-08/31/c_133609238.htm

 

 

    ASEAN Def. Ministers Meeting 2014 ( Singapore.mindef)

The 9th ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting will be held in Langkawi, Malaysia from March 15-17, 2015. While this meeting is a highlight during Malaysia’s year as ASEAN chair, it is just one of a series of defence-related events planned for 2015 throughout the region.

The full calendar started in January with the ASEAN Defense Senior Officials’ Meeting Working Group, and will continue until the ADMM-Plus meeting in November.

 Meetings of Ministers, Senior Officials and Working Groups will take place throughout the year and in even in various parts of the world outside the geographical ASEAN region. Meetings will be held as far away as Japan, the U.S., Australia, China and Finland. 

A quick glance at the wide range of topics to be covered in this year’s meetings will give a clear picture of the challenges facing the region.

Topics include:

• Maritime security and counterrorism
• Disaster relief planning
• Cooperation on illegal drugs
• Counter-piracy and armed robbery in Asia
• Defense industry cooperation
• Wildlife trafficking in Asia
• Humanitarian mine action

The ADDM meeting has been held since 2006, and its objectives include promoting regional peace and security, to promote mutual trust and confidence through greater understanding of defense challenges. (ADDM website).

2015 ADDM Schedule:

https://admm.asean.org/index.php/events/current-calendar-year.html 

 ASEAN-Closer Military Ties in 2015, The Diplomat:

http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/asean-eyes-closer-military-ties-in-2015

 

                 Nixon-Mao Meeting Feb. 21, 1972 Beijing 

                             by David Parmer

 This week we celebrate the 43rd anniversary of “the week that changed the world.” After much diplomatic back and forth with secret meetings and negotiations, U.S. President Richard M. Nixon, his wife Pat Nixon, U.S. Secretary of State William Rodgers, National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger and accompanying staff landed in Beijing on February 21, 1973. Films show President Nixon striding up to Premier Zhou Enlai and extending his hand in friendship. A delegation of Chinese officials and an honor guard were on hand to meet him, a band played the national anthems of both countries, and the U.S. party was whisked away to their guest quarters on a cold and sunny early spring day.

                       The Nixon-Zhou Handshake  

Premier Zhou Enlai accompanied the Americans to their quarters and took his leave. Then the unexpected happened. In a short time, Zhou was back and had a message for Dr. Kissinger: Chairman Mao Zedong would see the President-now. No meeting had been scheduled with the ailing Chairman, and there was no telling when another opportunity would arise. President Nixon and his advisors hastened to Mao’s villa where a meeting was held in his library/study. 

 The conversation was recorded for the American side by Winston Lord, assistant to Dr. Kissinger. (A link to the transcript at the Nixon library is posted below.) The meeting is described by Dr. Kissinger in his book, On China, and by Mr. Lord in an article on the website of the Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training,( also linked below.) Lord’s transcript is invaluable: although we can read his reminiscences as well as Dr. Kissinger’s, the transcript lets us become a “virtual participant” at this world-changing meeting.

Dr. Kissinger and others describe Chairman Mao as a philosopher maintaining the high ground. (And the word is used a lot in the transcript.) You could also see him as a Tai Chi player; he feints, he flows, he retreats, and he off-balances his opponent. President Nixon is more of a tough middleweight boxer; he has his chin down, elbows close to the ribs, guard up ready to punch, but Mao is nowhere to be found. The President says: “The Chairman’s moved a nation and changed the world.” The Chairman replies famously: ” I haven’t been able to change it. I’ve only been able to change a few places in the vicinity of Peking.”  Nixon lays out substantive issues, and Mao feints and says we will leave that to these people, meaning Kissinger and Zhou. Nixon thinks its time for somkin’ and jokin’ and Mao lays Lin Biao and the Russians on him. It is pretty much Chairman Mao’s show from beginning to end. The Good Old Boy from Hunan VS the Earnest Quaker from Yorba Linda. It’s no match.

 While this might be an amusing metaphor regarding the dynamics of the meeting, in the short and long run both parties came away from the meeting winners. Chairman Mao had publicly given his blessing to the President’s visit, and this meeting was widely reported by the Chinese and U.S. media. It was a bold step for both leaders, and both knew there were elements in their countries who were against it.

What followed days later was the Shanghai Communique, then  later the re-establishment of US-China relations, and finally the re-emergence of China during the Deng years. Indeed, President Nixon’s trip to China is an event worth celebrating and remembering, even 43 years later.

 Transcript of The Meeting  (Nixon Library):

http://www.nixonlibrary.gov/forkids/Chinadocs/Memo%20of%20Convo-%20Monday,%20February%2021,%201972-%202.50%20p.m%20-%203.55%20p.m.pdf

 Winston Lord remembers the Nixon-Mao Meeting:

http://adst.org/2013/02/nixon-goes-to-china/

Photos:

Top:  China.org.cn

Lower: Embassy of PRC