議論の場 | RG21

Did Kim Jong Un “Dis” China?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

“Worship of big countries and dependence on foreign forces is the road to national ruin…” (Kim Jong Un, January 1, 2016)

So spoke Kim Jong Un in his New Year 2016 address to the people of North Korea. One wonders what “big country” he had in mind. Not the US, for there is no love lost between the US and the DPRK, so never any worry about “worship” entering that relationship. OK, how about…Russia? No “worship” there either. So what country was Kim referring to? It seems he was talking about China.

It also seems that Mr. Kim was sending a clear message to China that the relationship is no longer what it was, and will be different in the future.

Any proof? Well, five days after Kim’s speech, on January 6, 2016 the DPRK tested what it referred to as a “hydrogen bomb.” The test came with no warning, and more importantly with no warning to China. There was no courtesy, and no fraternal “heads up,” just a fait-accompli. Mr. Kim’s long-time ally got no more warning than the US, Japan or South Korea. Certainly a signal for the change in relations mentioned above, and at least a sign of disrespect from the young Mr. Kim to his elder socialist neighbor.

So what do you think about this matter? Is there a new era in DPRK-PRC relations? Please let us know what you think.

2016—The Year of The Monkey. What Will it Bring?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Here we are, again at the end of another year. To say how fast it went can reveal our age, for as we age, each year seems to fly by and we find ourselves looking at the beginning of another new year.

2015 was filled with events on the world stage, some tragic and some promising and encouraging. British writer Charles Dickens began his famous novel about the French Revolution, A Tale of Two Cities, with the phrase: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…” That seems to sum up the beginning of the 21st century. In some ways it seems a race against time—which trends will prevail, those that lead us down to barbarism and chaos or those that lead us up to the stars?

What thoughts do you have on the world in 2016? Please log in and give us your wisdom.

From all of us at RG21 we wish you a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year 2016!

Checking In With Mr. Putin

For the past two years RG-21 has reported on Russian President Putin’s activities during the year and attempted to draw some conclusions about his ups and downs, and see where he stood at year’s end. This year, again, we will do the same, focusing on his annual year-end press conference in Moscow on Dec. 17th.

Overall it appears that Mr. Putin had a pretty good 2015. He has dealt with a number of issues including falling energy prices, Ukraine, and NATO on his doorstep and a shoot-down of one of his aircraft by NATO member Turkey. His biggest gamble has been to step up military support and put Russian boots on the ground in Syria. He has his own reasons for doing this, including quashing jihad in Syria before jihad comes home to bite him in Russia. Also with his muscling his way into the Middle East comes the fact that he and Russia must now be considered major players in the Middle East conflict.

Attached below is a full English transcript of Mr. Putin’s annual press conference where you can get his exact words on the situation in Russia and the challenges that he sees Russia facing.

Finally, what do you think about Mr. Putin’s year, his policies and future developments in the Middle East in the light of Russia’s inevitable presence and influence in the region?

Please log in and let us know.

Full text of Putin Press Confernce:

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47250

Photo: VOA

Paris 2015—Good COP, Bad COP.

There was a lot of celebration at the closing of the COP21 meeting in Paris on 12 December 2015. An agreement was reached among almost 200 countries on moving forward in dealing with climate change. Most observers are happy that there is a deal, imperfect though it seems. The attendees agreed to:

Find new renewable energy and shift from fossil fuels
Report greenhouse gases every 5 years
Supply $100B/yearly to developing countries by 2020

And while the agreement is not legally binding, major industrial powers like the US, India and China have committed with the other participants to the 1.5°C target by 2020. Meanwhile, small island states like Kiribati and the Maldives have real concerns that rising water levels associated with global warming will make their countries uninhabitable. Also, while fossil fuel produces have been put under the spotlight, the Paris agreement has not focused on the responsibility bore by major fossil fuel users like aviation, shipping and agriculture.

So for this week’s question, we would like to know what you think about the COP21 deal in Paris, and what do you think it will take to bring about the 1.5°C target agreed on at the meeting? Please log in and give us your thoughts.

Photo: U.S. Dept. of State via flickr

Taiwan 2016: Election Results VS Results of the Election

by David Parmer

As for the January 2016 Taiwan national elections, (presidential and legislative) what is interesting will not be the election results, but rather the results of the election. The election results seem pretty much a given: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Tsai Ing-wen will win by a comfortable majority. Kuomintang (KMT) party Chair Eric Chu will finish a respectable second (which is why he was brought in to replace Hung Hsiu-chu, who was headed into the black hole of ignominious defeat, dragging the KMT with her) and People First Party’s James Soong will get the crumbs. Those will be the election results and should come as no surprise to anyone. The big question is what will be the results of the election?

Presumptive winner Tsai has said in effect that she won’t rock the boat regarding cross-strait ties. And that is good news as far as Washington and Beijing are concerned. Perhaps there will be some social legislation and domestic restructuring. The China Post reported on September 6, 2015 that the Tsai proposes using defense spending budget to promote local industries, and that she argues the government should do more for infrastructure projects to promote employment. Specifically this would include upgrading IT, green technology and industries related to people’s daily lives. In foreign policy Tsai is said to focus on Taiwan’s traditional ties with the USA, and might become friendlier with Japan.

Three real questions remain however:

1) How will Beijing react to a DPP victory in the presidential and legislative elections? Will there be “business as usual” as there has been with the KMT, or will there be a cooling down and heating up of cross strait ties?

2) Once the DPP was won, they will become “the establishment.” How will the student movement deal with the new administration? Will the DPP get a pass from the younger generation, or will it have to prove itself by actions?

3) What does the shift toward a “Taiwan Identity” mean? Reports suggest that many people see their identity as Taiwanese and not Chinese. How will 3) affect 1) and 2) above?

Please log in and give us your thoughts on the Taiwan elections 2016.

Photo: DPP Facebook Page

Will There be a European Right Wing Backlash?

The terrorist attacks in Paris on 13 November 2015 that claimed the lives of 129 people and injured 352 more will certainly have a lot of far reaching consequences. Security in the French capital will be tightened even more across the board, particularly for the December 2015 climate summit in Paris. Average people in France and around the world will certainly move and act with more caution in their daily lives.

One result that could very well occur is a pan-Europe right wing backlash. As reported here on September 23, 2015, (http://rg21.jp/?p=2202) in countries from the Baltic to the Aegean, European right-wing parties are on the rise. Non-stop south-to-north immigration has fueled the increase in sympathy and membership. And the Paris attacks, especially with allegations that terrorists used the current wave of immigration to gain access to Europe, will only strengthen the appeal of Europe’s right.

Mainstream media seems to be asleep to the possibility of a backlash, and will probably only wake up when the right has won elections in one or two European capitals.

So, will Europe move to the right in 2016 and beyond? Please log in and give us your opinion.

Photo: France National Front, via wikimedia

N.Y. Times/ Anti-refugee backlash

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/17/opinion/paris-and-europes-anti-refugee-backlash.html?_r=0

Ma-Xi Meeting, What’s Up?

by David Parmer

Republic of China President Ma Ying-jeou will meet PRC President Xi Jinping on November 7, 2015 in Singapore. The schedule includes a short meeting followed by dinner. “Historic” is certainly appropriate to describe this meeting, as heads of the two governments have not met since the Nationalists (KMT) fled to Taiwan in 1949.

But what is the purpose of the sudden meeting? Reuters reported that President Ma said that the meeting is about normalizing future relations and helping reduce hostilities in the short term, but it is not about the January 2016 Taiwan elections.

All things being equal, the KMT will chalk up a loss to the opposition Democratic Progressive Party in the 2016 elections. It looks like it will not be a question of a loss, but rather how big a loss. The KMT apparently realized this and dumped its candidate Hung Hsiu-chu so that it did not suffer a humiliating defeat. Party chair and New Taiwan Mayor Eric Chu has stepped up as the KMT’s presidential candidate.

One reason the KMT is so unpopular is that many see it getting too cozy with the PRC to the detriment of Taiwan’s political and economic interests. So why the meeting? How can the meeting possibly help the KMT in the short run?

Please log in an give us your thoughts on this issue.

COP21—Tackling Climate Change in Paris

Paris 2015 At A Glance

What: 21st Session of the Conference on the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21/CMP11).

When: November 30, 2015—December 11, 2015

Where: Paris, France Le Bourget

Who: World leaders from 80 countries including those of the USA, China, India and Great Britain, and 40,000 delegates from 195 nations.

Why: The meeting will attempt to arrive at an universal and legally-binding agreement to limit greenhouse gassed to keep global warming within 2°C of pre-industrial levels. The meeting will also attempt to generate $100 billion/year support for developing countries to combat climate change.

What else: The World Climate Summit will be held on December 6, 2015 during COP21. The World Climate Summit has been held in parallel with COP since 2010. It Is the premier forum for business, finance and government to exchange views during COP.

Your thoughts: Do you have any thoughts on COP21 or climate change that you would like to share? Log in and let us know.

http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/cop21-cmp11/what-cop21-cmp11

Photo: Paris by night. NASA.

Beijing—Washington Open Space Cooperation Dialogue

The US and China held the first meeting of the Civil Space Dialogue in Beijing on September 28, 2015, and promised to meet again in Washington D.C. in 2016.

That is certainly a good start. The precursor to this meeting was the U.S. China Strategic and Economic Dialogue held June 22-24, 2015 in Washington, where matters related to space were discussed.

In the September 28 meeting, satellite collision, space debris, space science and space weather were discussed as well as global satellite navigations systems. Both sides have expressed optimism for future cooperation.

Moreover, a Chinese experiment dealing with DNA research from the Beijing Institute of Technology will be sent to the International Space Station (ISS) by US company NanoRacks aboard a Space X cargo rocket.

The Wolf Amendment of 2011 is still in place. This law prohibits the NASA from cooperating with the People’s Republic on space matters. So how is the dialogue taking place? The June meeting was done by the State Department, which is not covered by the law, and the DNA research module launch is a commercial deal.

It is clear that cooperation in space is good for all nations, and that the US ban on working with China is outdated and counterproductive. Such cooperation can go a long way toward improving US-China relations, and further human ventures off planet. Do you have any thoughts on this topic? If so, please let us know.

Press Release: U.S. State Department

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2015/09/247394.htm

Press Release: State Council PRC

http://english.gov.cn/news/international_exchanges/2015/09/29/content_281475200710932.htm

Space.com: Chinese experiment to ISS

http://www.space.com/30337-chinese-experiment-international-space-station.html

South China Sea: U.S.—China Heading For A Collision?

According to a Navy Times article on September 7, 2015, the U.S. Navy is planning to send a surface ship to challenge China’s 12-nautical mile territorial limit around disputed islets in the South China Sea’s Spratly islands chain.

China has expressed concern about the possibility of such a move. Earlier this year, U.S. Defense secretary Ash Carter stated on May 27, 2015 at Pearl Harbor :

Second – and there should be no mistake, should be no mistake about this – the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world.

If the U.S. Navy does enter the 12-nautical mile zone, the question is how will China react? Will Chinese vessels shadow, warn, or open fire on the U.S. vessel?

Some may see that as a dangerous game of brinksmanship on the part of both the U.S. and China. What is your opinion? Please leave your comments and let us know.

Photo: US Pacific Fleet via flickr