Big Story 2019 #2 – Ghosn But Not Forgotten.

It was just over a year ago on November 19, 2018 that Carlos Ghosn, Chairman and CEO of Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi was arrested at Tokyo’s Haneda airport.The arrest was the result of a secret investigation and it has been said that it completely blindsided Mr. Ghosn.

Prosecutors have charged Mr. Ghosn with financial misconduct and breach of trust. He been charged with under-reporting his income and moving funds to a Lebanese company connected to his family. Mr. Ghosn denies all charges and claims he is the victim of a conspiracy to prevent the further integration of Renault and Nissan.

Mr. Ghosn was held in confinement for 130 days before being released on bail. He is not allowed to see his wife who is peripherally related to the case. Mr. Ghosn has hired a team of lawyers and called for a dismissal of all charges. There has been criticism of Japan’s legal system as “hostage justice” that gets more than 90% convictions in its cases.

The trail of Carlos Ghosn sometime in 2020 will be the staple of nightly news. It may even eclipse the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. The question is whether Mr. Ghosn was a “king” who became drunk on power and dreams, or an outsider who ran afoul of the Japan Inc. system and “home team” mentality. Whichever you choose to believe, it is certain that it will be hard to ignore the name Carlos Ghosn in 2020.

Photo: WEF via flickr

What Does “Impeachment” Mean?

The President, Vice President and all Civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”
— U.S. Constitution, Article II, section 4

Impeachment is a fairly straightforward process in the United States.The US House of Representatives brings charges against the president and the US Senate holds a trial. Nothing complicated. In the history of the United States there have only been two impeachments of the president, and both were unsuccessful.

The US House of Representatives in now taking the preliminary steps in the impeachment of President Donald Trump. Trump is accused of setting up a “quid-pro-quo” (something for something) with the president of Ukraine.

Mr. Trump allegedly asked for an investigation by Ukraine into his politicalrival, Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. It is alleged that Trump told Ukraine that the US would withhold military aid until such an investigation took place.

Evidence supporting these charges is now being taken by the House. The issue is pretty much split on party lines, with Republicans defending Trump and Democrats accusing him. Many people believe that Trump may be impeached, but will not be removed from office because the Republicans control the Senate, and there will not be enough votes to convict Mr. Trump.

People around the world are watching this. What do you think? Is Mr. Trump guilty of “high crimes and misdemeanors,” or is he the victim of his political enemies?

Please let us know your opinion.

Photo: US Constitution wikimedia

Air Astana is Doing Something Right.

             by David Parmer / Tokyo

It is seldom that a person or organization gets positive reviews across the board, but that is the case for Kazakhstan’s national carrier, Air Astana. Customers and aviation writers give the airline top marks for both equipment and customer service. Air Astana is a relatively young airline, having first gotten off the ground in 2002. In the past 17 years it has moved from success to success, posting a US$5.3million profit in 2018 and being consistently profitable along the way.

Reviewers note friendly staff, clean aircraft and good service as reasons for customer satisfaction. A factor they also consider is its relatively young fleet: the average age is 7.1 years. (Legacy carriers, on the other hand, can have fleets with an average age of up to double this figure). Moreover, the fleet is constantly being upgraded.

Air Astana is flying mostly the Airbus A320, and has taken delivery of its first A321LR narrow body aircraft. The A321LR will replace its aging Boeing 757s and enable long-haul flights to destinations such as Tokyo, Singapore and Shanghai. In 2020 Air Astana will use the A321LR for its Astana-London route.

Air Astana’s latest success has been the launch of Kazakhstan’s first LCC: Fly Arystan. Launched in 2019, the LCC has already flown nearly half a million passengers. The airline is looking to have a fleet of 15 aircraft by 2022. The business model for Fly Arystan is low fares plus a high quality product.

The only cloud on the horizon for Kazakhstan’s booming airline industry’s seems to be a lack of infrastructure that can keep pace with its ongoing success. New airports and new infrastructure will have to catch up to the demands of a regional national carrier moving onto the world stage.

If you haven’t seen any aircraft with the distinctive Air Astana or Fly Arystan logos yet, there is a good chance that you will, for these two airlines are going places–literally.

photo: Air Astana Airbus, Christian Junker via flickr

Compiled from Web sources.

Georgieva Takes Over At IMF: “Buckle Up!”

On October 1, 2019 Bulgarian economist Kristalina Georgieva took over from Christine Lagarde as Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  For Georgieva, it was more of a lateral move from one top job to another; she had been CEO the World Bank since January 2017, so the new position was more of a change of focus than something totally new.

Georgieva, who is fluent in Bulgarian, English, and Russian, is a career bureaucrat with an MA in Political Economy, and PhD in Economics and the other of more than 100 academic papers. Her first major job was as European Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Management. Notable achievements were Georgieva’s work in 2010 with the Haiti Earthquake, the Chile Earthquake, and the Pakistan Flood. In 2014 she became Vice President of the European Commission, and this followed with the World Bank position.

Kristalina Georgieva is a strong supporter and promoter of gender equality in the workplace, particularly in the boardroom. When at the World Bank she set and achieved gender parity at the top level. On October 16, Reuters quoted her as saying “Buckle Up!” The meaning is that it will be a bumpy or accelerated transition at the IMF, or that there will be exciting times ahead.

Pasted below is her first speech at the IMF where MD Georgieva lays out her plans and vision and understanding of the work of the IMF at present and in the years to come. One thing seems clear about the new head of the IMF­–the words “status quo” are not in her dictionary.

_______________________________________________

                                  October 18, 2019

1. Introduction

Mr. Chairman, Governors, distinguished Guests:

It is a great honor to address you for the first time as Managing Director of the IMF—and even more so in the presence of James Wolfensohn, who placed the fight against poverty at the heart of the World Bank.

I am very fortunate to take over from a remarkable woman, whose vision and dedication have made the IMF stronger, more innovative, and more relevant. Thank you, Christine!

And most sincere thanks to David Lipton, who has so ably led the Fund in this interim period.

I am delighted to share the stage with Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, the Chair of the Board of Governors; and David Malpass, the President of the World Bank Group. It is a privilege to join you in serving our members.

Let me begin by quoting John Maynard Keynes, one of our founding fathers, who once said:

Economics is essentially a moral science and not a natural science. That is to say, it employs introspection and judgments of value.”

These words speak to the purpose of the IMF and its staff.

For all their methodical work, Fund staff are guided by their commitment to improving people’s lives. They are not just employing judgements of value; they are seeking to add real value.

In everything we do, we aim to make a clear connection between our work and the benefits it brings for the economies and people of our member countries.

I have seen this first-hand when the IMF supported my own country, Bulgaria, in its economic transformation—from crisis, to recovery, to more jobs and higher living standards.

I have seen time and again how ordinary people benefit when transitions are well managed, when the IMF is playing its essential role in promoting sound policies for inclusive and sustainable growth.

And I am mindful of the responsibility that comes with my position—especially at a time of accelerating change in technology, climate, and the nature of work, to name just a few.

Change creates huge new opportunities but also risks that we all must navigate.

In this environment, I think of the Fund as being an important “transmission line”—of knowledge, financial resources, good policies, and capacity development. A wealth of experiences and tools that help countries embrace the benefits of change and reduce the risk of falling behind.

2. Global outlook

Being able to transmit the right signals is always important, but even more so when the world economy faces headwinds. Indeed, after a synchronized upswing, we are now facing a synchronized slowdown.

A deceleration in nearly 90 percent of the world [i] means that growth this year is expected to reach only 3 percent [ii] —its lowest rate since the beginning of the decade.

Yes, the global economy is still growing—but too slowly.

This is partly because trade tensions are now taking a toll on business confidence and investment. Add to this increased uncertainty—from Brexit to geopolitical tensions—and a further drag on growth from demographic pressures and record-high debt levels.

This all spells a troubling medium-term outlook, especially in countries already facing difficulties, including some of the Fund’s program countries.

We estimate that 45 developing countries, a total of nearly 1 billion people, will grow more slowly in per capita terms than the advanced world. [iii] Instead of catching up, those countries are set to fall further behind.

To meet this challenge, we need to step up cooperation within and across borders.

What does that mean?

It means that countries must work together to find a lasting solution on trade and keep tensions from spilling over into other critical areas, such as currencies and technology.

We need to move from trade truce to trade peace.

Here, the recent announcement by the United States and China is a step in the right direction. The goal should be to build a better trade system—one that is fairer, more innovative, and more inclusive.

It also means building consensus at home to ensure that a more balanced approach is taken to support growth.

Slower growth requires that monetary policy remain supportive. But we all recognize that it cannot do the job alone. Where space is available, fiscal policymust play a more active role.

Above all, countries need to be committed to structural reforms that can boost productivity and resilience.

Think of lowering barriers to entry in service sectors, tackling gender discrimination in the labor market, and modernizing legal frameworks to reduce red tape and fight corruption.

Structural reforms are never easy to do. They sometimes involve taking on entrenched vested interests. And they require paying careful attention to the impact on vulnerable groups.

But they are critical to avoid getting stuck in mediocre growth—and to promote productivity, job creation, and higher incomes.

How can the IMF best support you in these efforts?

3. Strengthening the connection between policies and people

By further strengthening the connection between policies and people’s lives. By delivering results for you.

I see three priorities:

(a) Economic fundamentals

One is to focus on economic fundamentals. For Fund staff, that is always the starting point. Always recognizing that sound economic policies are not an end in themselves—but rather a means to build more prosperous societies.

I have personally witnessed the power of good policies and the impact of bad policies. During Bulgaria’s currency crisis in the 1990s, my mother lost 98 percentof her life savings to hyperinflation.

That is something I always remember when I look at economic reform programs.

A good example is Jamaica, where two IMF-supported programs have delivered tangible results: a reduction in public debt by 50 percent of GDP, historically low unemployment, and inflation stability.

And I want to congratulate the Jamaican government for being very creative in bringing society on board—using reggae music to communicate the benefits of low inflation.

This focus on results has been driving the ongoing progress in the Fund’s approach: improving the design of our lending programs, including expanding support for low-income countries at zero interest; upgrading our surveillance to enhance traction; and further integrating our capacity development with our surveillance and lending.

Given the precarious outlook, we must go further.

This means even more focus on countries that would be affected most in a downturn—fragile states, for example; and using our tools even more effectively, including precautionary instruments.

Above all, it means making our efforts even more attuned to individual country circumstances. In this way, we can deliver even better service to you.

(b) Inclusive growth

The second priority is to focus on what matters most to people in their daily lives.

Better jobs with higher wages, greater access to finance, and more opportunities for women and young people: these are all areas where we need more potent reforms and more public and private investment.

This will help countries to make their economies both more competitive and more inclusive. The goal is to unlock the full potential of human capital in all countries.

In other words, if you want to be wealthy tomorrow, invest in your people today.

It is appropriate, therefore, that the Fund has significantly stepped up its engagement on social spending issues.

In Ghana, helping to create fiscal space for more education spending. In Georgia, supporting efforts to increase the minimum public pension. In Egypt, helping to expand a cash transfer program for poorer households. [iv]

And in many countries, helping to boost public revenue—which is essential for progress on the Sustainable Development Goals.

We will maintain this momentum and continue to build on the Fund’s strengths. Our global membership gives us a unique cross-country perspective; and a unique perspective over time—75 years of experience, which we are marking this year.

History also teaches us that our success depends on strong partnerships, including with other international organizations like the World Bank.

Think about what our joint efforts have already achieved: from debt relief in low-income countries, to financial stability assessments across a broad range of countries, to effective engagement on fintech and its implications for all countries.

I commit to work with David Malpass to further expand our collaboration in key macro-critical areas, as well as on the ground in program countries.

(c) Reinvigorating international cooperation

This brings me to the third priority— reinvigorating international cooperation.

I have always admired the IMF’s commitment to building bridges between nations. Even as some countries become more reluctant to reach out across borders, the global economy becomes increasingly intertwined.

So many issues can only be effectively addressed by working together. Action on climate is one of them. Here I am greatly encouraged to see the IMF’s continuing work on mitigation and adaptation, especially on carbon pricing and building resilience.

Action on trade also requires more international cooperation, not less.

The same goes for corporate taxation, financial regulation, and fighting money laundering and the financing of terrorism.

In this moment of heightened uncertainty, we also need a strong global financial safety net, with a well-resourced IMF at its center.

Safeguarding the IMF’s financial strength is a top priority—combined with continued efforts to ensure that the IMF’s governance becomes ever more reflective of its dynamic membership.

On this critical point, I am pleased to inform you that earlier this morning the IMFC endorsed a package—to ensure that the Fund will continue to have sufficient resources to provide full confidence that it can adequately support our membership and that quota and governance reforms will continue under the 16thGeneral Review.

A properly resourced, properly representative Fund will be even more effective in addressing your needs.

Being more effective also means continuing to learn from experience and—at the same time—continuing to modernize the Fund: streamlining our systems, leveraging new technology, and further increasing the diversity of our staff—the IMF’s greatest asset. Your greatest asset.

I want to thank them profoundly for their tireless efforts on your behalf.

I also want to thank my Management team and our Executive Directors. Thank you for placing your trust in me.

4. Conclusion

Serving our 189 member countries—large and small, rich and poor—is the greatest honor of my life.

As someone who grew up behind the Iron Curtain, I could never have expected to lead the IMF. That experience holds a simple lesson:

Nothing is impossible. Change is unstoppable. We can build a better world.

Thank you.

______________________________

IMF Georgieva Speech

Reuters: “Buckle Up!”

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Compiled from WEB Sources

 

Turkey’s Military Fully Capable Of Projecting Power.

                            by David Parmer / Tokyo

The Turks live in a rough neighborhood–their country borders Iran, Iraq, Syria, and just across the Black Sea is Russia. So for defense alone they have to have credible military power. Moreover challenges often lie across the border, and they must have the ability to project power cross-border to defend what they see as their national interests. An example of this cross-border power projection was their October 2019 incursion into northern Syria in the wake of US withdrawal.

The Kurdish insurgency has always been a stone in their shoe, and so when the Kurds lost their American shield, it was the perfect vacuum in which to cross the border and deal with the long-standing issue of the Kurdish threat. Turkey easily has the power to do that, and their strength is impressive.

Estimates are that Turkey has 3/4 of a million soldiers under arms with another 1/2 million in reserve. They also have 4200 tanks of all types and 10,000 assorted armored vehicles, 475 helicopters, 1300 self-propelled artillery pieces and 1500 towed artillery pieces. They have over 500 combat aircraft including 270 F16 fighters-the biggest fleet outside of the US military. Although not playing a role in the current cross-border situation, they have a robust but small naval force of 16 frigates and 14 type-209 submarines. They also possess cruise missiles with a range of more that 150 miles.

Kurdish forces were, and are, no match for Turkish might, particularly without their American “allies.” News reports suggest that in the vacuum left by the Americans, the Kurds turned to President Bashar al Assad’s regime and its Russian allies for help. The Russians are now co-patrolling northern Syria with the Turks. It is indeed a complicated situation, for Turkey is a staunch NATO ally, and NATO faces off mainly against Russia.

Turkey gets its military hardware mainly from the US and Germany, NATO allies of theirs. They also have their own defense industry to make equipment like armored vehicles of all types. A surprise for NATO was President Erdogan’s decision to buy the powerful and deadly Russian S-400 Triumph air defense missile system instead of comparable equipment from American or other non-Russian suppliers.

That being said, President Erdogan has to walk a thin line between Russian and the US, its main supplier of military equipment, its NATO partner and the tenant at his Inchlink airbase. However, it is fairly clear that Turkey will not only act in what it sees as its self-interest, but will use its massive military power as it sees fit and will be willing to face criticism or even harsh sanctions to do so.

It is a complicated situation for all parties concerned. What is your opinion on this matter?

Photo:BMC Turkey, https://www.bmc.com.tr/en/corporate/press-center

Sidney Rittenberg and the End of an Era.

                      by David Parmer / Tokyo

On August 24, 2019, Sidney Rittenberg, one of the last of a generation of foreigners involved in the birth or the People’s Republic of China passed away at age 98. That generation included Dr. George Hatem, Edgar Snow, Anna Louise Strong, Agnes Smedley, Rewi Alley, and Dr. Norman Bethune among others. Of this group, it was only Sidney Rittenberg who became well known for his life after October 1, 1949.

Mr. Rittenberg grew up in Charleston, South Carolinian and attended the University of North Carolina where he majored in Philosophy. During this time Mr. Rittenberg became a member of the American Communist Party. During WWII he was sent to Stanford University for language study where he mastered Chinese. He served in the US Army in China during the war, and after his discharge worked for the United Nations, and then eventually made his way to Yan’an where he met Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai. In 1946 Mr. Rittenberg became a member of the Chinese Communist Party.

During his time in China Rittenberg was imprisoned for 15 years, much of it in solitary confinement. His first imprisonment was from 1949 to 1955, allegedly at the order of Joseph Stalin himself who claimed that Rittenberg was a member of an international spy organization. One out of jail he went back to work as a foreign advisor working for the Chinese government.

Sidney Rittenberg immersed himself in the Cultural Revolution; he became a radical and participated in the factional denunciation of others. However, he himself was caught in the net of the Cultural Revolution, being denounced by no one less than Jiang Qing, wife to Mao Zedong. He was imprisoned for another 9 years, and upon his release, in 1980 returned to the US. He said that he held Joseph Stalin and Jiang Qing responsible for his life behind bars and not the Chinese people. 

On his return to the US he found a teaching position at Pacific Lutheran University and established a consulting company, Rittenberg & Associates to capitalize on his Chinese connections created over half a century.

Mr. Rittenberg’s death really closes a tumultuous chapter of Chinese history that set the stage for the birth of China as a world superpower. This new China faces 21st century challenges no less difficult than those witnessed by Sidney Rittenberg and his generation of foreign observers and participants.

Photo: Sidney Rittenberg

 Sidney Rittenberg: China History Podcast

 

Chongqing – Symbol of China’s Dynamic Present.

                        by David Parmer / Tokyo

What might China be like in the next 70 years? A quick look at the PRC’s fourth Provincial Level City of Chongqing might supply a lot of the answer to that question. Located at the confluence of the mighty Yangtze and Jialing rivers in mountainous Sichuan province, Chongqing has become the economic center of western China and a key component of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for re-inventing the Silk Road.

Chongqing’s population hovers around 32 million persons with the reported addition of 1300 more people every day. Other cities struggle with the influx of migrants seeking a better life, but it appears that Chongqing has a series of coping mechanisms to deal with this influx.

One such coping mechanism is sheer size. In a country where scale is usually mind boggling, the size of Chongqing is astounding. Its estimated 82,000KM2 makes it the size of a small European country; say Belgium or Austria for example. (And yet, so much of the area where Chongqing is located is mountainous and useable land is finite and being eaten up by constant development.)

So, to a certain extent, the city can handle and utilize the migrant inflow. In addition, the city guarantees certain things to migrants including the right to employment and a pension, public housing and schools for their children. Moreover Chongqing has a modern transportation system consisting of light rail, subway and scenic monorail. This means not only affordable transportation, but also a reduction of automobiles on the road.

Chongqing’s vibrant economy, the magnet for its migrant workers, includes traditional industries like iron and steel production and manufacturing. Chongqing is also China’s largest producer of automobiles and motorcycles with several major players including Ford Motor Company having facilities there.

The city has aimed to up-market its industries to encourage more hi-tech enterprises. One step toward this was the creation of a free trade zone that saw the participation of more than 12,000 firms in fields such as AI, aerospace and medical equipment.

Chongqing features big in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Starting in 2011, the Chongqing-Duisburg Germany rail link has seen more than 4100 trips carrying goods including personal computers to the West in a relatively-short 13-day overland trip. The city is also a party to the China-Singapore (Chongqing) Demonstration Initiative on Strategic Connectivity which met in Beijing in August 2019 to discuss cooperation in several areas including the construction of a land-sea corridor to SE Asia.

 Finally, Chongqing has had, and continues to have, a robust tourist industry featuring scenic spots around the city, abundant tourist attractions, the Three Gorges Dam and its famous Sichuan cuisine including hotpot and other spicy dishes.

Chongqing could be considered the face of China future, but right now it gives a great insight into the life, struggles and triumphs of a once sleepy backwater turning itself into a truly global city of the future.

Photo: Wikipedia

China at 70 – Where From Here?

October 1, 2019 marked exactly 70 years since the late Mao Zedong stood atop the gate at Beijing’s Tiananmen Square and declared that the Chinese people had stood up, and henceforth China would be the People’s Republic of China.

The 70 year period was not without its challenges including armed clashed with three other world powers, the US, India and Russia and the growing, flowering, decline and growing again of one of the world’s biggest economies. Add to this the tumult brought about by the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution which was aimed at revitalizing the revolution and keeping ideology pure, but which resulted in the death of countless citizens and the doling out of large doses of misery to millions of others.

With Reform and Opening up in the early 1980s the pent up energy of the Chinese people was released and the world saw a real miracle as so many in the new China were lifted out of poverty as the economy showed almost unstoppable growth. China rose to be the #2 economy in the world defying all odds.

While economic growth has slowed, China is now set on a course to become a “moderately prosperous society” by the middle of this century. This vision, combined with the establishment of the Belt and Road initiative to revitalize the Silk Road are both visions of China’s future set forth by its president, Xi Jinping.

China is not without its problems going forward however. The ongoing trade war with the United States is one major headache. The Uighur minority in Xinjiang is another matter that must be addressed with wisdom and fairness. And now Hong Kong seems a problem with no easy solution that must be addressed in a creative way to ensure democracy and guarantee the rule of law. China’s claim to the South China Sea and its relations with Taiwan are also thorny issues going forward.

So what will the future be for China? A “moderately prosperous” society for the majority of its people as President Xi Jinping suggests, Or a rethinking of the China Dream in light of 21st century realities?

Please log in and give us your thoughts on this.

 

Alibaba in Transition: Will the Magic Continue?

“No company can rely solely on its founders” (Jack Ma)

“Our goal is that in five years we will serve more than one billion customers globally.” (Daniel Zhang)

As transitions go, the ascent of Daniel Zhang and the bowing out of Jack Ma at Alibaba was seamless. One year before Alibaba’s 20th anniversary on September 10, 2019, Jack Ma announced his retirement as Executive Chair of the world’s most valuable e-commerce company.

Founder Jack Ma’s story is the stuff of legend, and as such it will most likely be embellished and repeated for a long time to come.

Start with a skinny teacher of English who pedaled his bicycle through the rain to have a chance to chat with tourists to improve his English, add to that a guy who applied to, and was rejected by Harvard University 10 times, drop in the fact that he was also rejected by Kentucky Fried Chicken when they came to China, and then finish by retelling the part where the same guy had a vision of the Internet in China and subsequently became the richest man in China. Considering all of this, Jack Ma, or Ma Yun, is indeed a hard act to follow.

Daniel Zhang, by all accounts, seems to be up to the job.

A graduate of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Daniel Zhang joined Alibaba in 2007 at Taobao, the world’s biggest e-commerce website. Mr. Zhang’s background in finance might make him seem a bit lackluster compared to Alibaba’s founder, but clearly his is not without vision and imagination. On Zhang’s watch Single’s Day or Double 11, the wildly-successful online shopping spree was launched in 2009 on the T-Mall platform. Fast-forward to 2018 where Single’s Day saw sales reached $30.8 billion over a 24-hour period, easily eclipsing the Black Friday shopping day in the west.

The actual transition at Alibaba was celebrated with a huge party. Two short speeches were presented: one by Jack Ma, and one by the incoming Executive Chair, Daniel Zhang.

In his short speech Zhang outlined the vision for the future of Alibaba. Key points included:

  • To serve more than one billion customers worldwide in 5 years
  • To have the capability to handle 10 trillion RMB in transactions
  • To continue to create value for society
  • To solve society’s problems
  • To be a company that shoulders social responsibility

And now, with Jack Ma out of the picture it is up to Daniel Zhang and his team to make these goals and this vision for Alibaba’s future a reality. Will they succeed? Please let us know what you think about this.

 

 

 

 

 

Lake Chad Today–A Template for Tomorrow’s Conflicts And For Tomorrow’s Solutions.

               by David Parmer / Tokyo

A Model For Future Conflicts and Their Solution?

Central Africa’s Sahel region between the Sahara Desert and equatorial Africa might just hold the model for world conflicts in the second quarter of the 21st century and beyond. The geopolitical situation around Lake Chad with its environmental and social problems could very well be the first in a series of eviro-conflicts that beg for a simple solution, but are in fact a complex interweave of factors.

Causes of the Problem I: Water Use and Climate Change

Four countries border Lake Chad; Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria, but another four use the lake water. These include Algeria, Central African Republic, Libya, and Sudan. Lake Chad has, however, shrunk significantly since the 1970s. It has gone from an area of 20,000 KM2to an area of 2, 000 KM2  this been attributed to global warming or climate change and also to an increasing demand for water. Add to this an increase in population and the displacement of populations (up to 2.3 million people) due to the ongoing insurgency lead by Boko Haram, and the plot begins to thicken. A decrease in water has also created friction between herders and farmers, both stakeholders in the water use debate.

 Causes of the Problem II: Boko Haram Islamist Insurgency

 Since 2009 Boko Haram, a militant fundamentalist group, has been on the offensive in an attempt to establish an Islamist state in central Africa. Boko Haram has been designated as a terrorist group by Britain, the United States, New Zealand, and the United Nations. Forces from Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria have been working together for 8 years in an attempt to defeat Boko Haram. In one recent high-profile operation Boko Haram kidnapped 100 schoolgirls from a technical college in Dapachi bringing worldwide attention and concern to the problem. Many say there is no military solution to this insurgency, and therefore a political settlement is in order. Owing to the extreme positions of the organization and its promotion of strict Sharia law, it is no wonder that a solution has not been reached. Moreover, it is doubtful that a solution acceptable to all parties will ever be reached.

Solutions to the Problem I

 In September 2019 Nigeria, Niger and Chad agreed on a joint trans-border agro-ecosystem program designed to restore livelihoods and to restore the lake. The parties agreed on the occasion of a joint meeting in New Delhi dealing with desertification.

Solutions to the Problem II

One grand scheme to save the lake is the Transaqua Project that has gained financial commitment from both China and Italy. PowerChina has pledged a $1.8 million investment while Italy’s Bonifica has pledged $2.5 million. The project calls for the refilling of Lake Chad by bringing water from the River Congo in the Democratic Republic of Congo through a navigable canal 2400KM long to the Chari River and then to Lake Chad. Additional benefits of the project (in addition to saving the lake) would be water for agriculture, hydroelectric power for the region and rail and road transportation along the canal. This scheme was proposed decades ago but has now been dusted off and is gaining traction in the 21st century.

Solutions to the Problem III

Another plan calls for water to be pumped up from the Ubangi River over the mountains to the Chari River using solar power. The group behind this scheme is called The Solar Option. Benefits of The Solar Option include the fact that the equipment would come on line rapidly as opposed to the long timeline for the Transaqua project. Also the Solar Option requires no dams, and costs a projected 10% of the cost of the Transaqua.

Solutions to the Problem IV

To add further nuance to the problem/solution matrix of the Lake Chad situation we only have to consult a new report, building on the work of a previous G7 report, which is entitled Shoring up Stability, Addressing Climate and Fragility Risks in the Lake Chad Region. The findings of the report suggest that the popular belief that Lake Chad is continuing to shrink is not correct. The fluctuations in the water level are normal and ground water is stable while surface water has shrunk. The key finding of the report is that it is conflict and not climate change that is to blame in the Lake Chad situation. A number of social issues are what is fueling the problem not just the climate change factor, which is indeed important but not key when compared to the social and political causes of the situation.

Conclusion

 The problems and solutions relating to the ecological and social impacts on the Lake Chad region are varied. No single, simple solution will bring relief to the lake, to the region and to the displaced people who live there. A clear vision of the problem, and cooperation among stakeholders will be the only way forward in saving this wonderful lake and in saving the livelihoods of the people who inhabit this region and this vitally important part of Africa.

Photo: Lake Chad, Cameroon and Sahara from ISS. NASA via flickr

Photo: Lake Chad basin crisis via flickr