議論の場 | RG21

Tokyo 2020: IOC Lights Torch, Mori Says It’s a “Go!”

by David Parmer / Tokyo

The torch-lighting ceremony for the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics was held in Olympia, Greece on March 12. IOC President Thomas Bach attended the colorful ceremony where men and women in ancient Greek costume danced, soldiers in traditional uniform stood to attention and the fire was passed to the Olympic torch.

The day before, March 11, Mr. Yoshiro Mori, president of the Tokyo Olympics Organizing Committee held a press conference in Tokyo and said that the games would open as scheduled and would not be postponed or cancelled. Mori said that the committee’s stance was to proceed with preparations for a safe Olympics.

Mori’s sentiments were echoed by Minister Seiko Hashimoto who told the Diet it was inconceivable to cancel the Olympics. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Tokyo Mayor Yuriko Koike were all on board with the same message.

Organizers are monitoring the Corona Virus epidemic which has recently been upgraded to “pandemic.” and will hold a more meetings this spring to assess the situation.

What do you think about this? Should the Olympics be postponed or cancelled, or should they go forward as scheduled? Give us your thoughts on this or any other current topics.

Photo: Tsutomu Takasu via flickr

US Election 2020 Who’s Who – Bernie Sanders.

David Parmer/Tokyo

It is February 2020, and the race to be the Democratic nominee to face Donald Trump in the general election of 2020 is on. Now, the candidate leading the pack is the senator from Vermont, Bernard “Bernie” Sanders. The senator was born in 1941 making him 78 years old. This is not unusual in a field with former Vice President Joe Biden and Donald Trump himself being in their 70s.

Senator Sanders graduated the University of Chicago in 1964 and from that time identified himself with left-leaning causes. After being a small town mayor he served in the US House of Representatives for 16 years. In 2007 he was elected to the US Senate where he serves today.

He now proudly calls himself a democratic socialist. He looks to the Nordic model of democratic socialism with high taxes and extensive benefits for all. The senator’s left-leaning positions are highly attractive to idealistic young people, particularly his positions on free university education, raising the minimum wage, protecting the environment, and dealing with global warming.

Sanders has always been an Independent, but he is now running for the nomination of the Democratic Party. The question for the Democrats is electability. Can their candidate be elected by more than a majority of the US populace, and especially in the states of Pennsylvania and Ohio? Can Sanders win against Donald Trump? Many people seem to think so. But is this reality, or thinking inside a bubble?

Donald Trump would come out hard against the senator’s “socialism.” And in fact, he already has done so and he will continue to do so. Trump, being president, always has the spotlight and the microphone. Moreover, Trump is a ruthless and vicious infighter. Whoever faces Trump this election will be in for a bloody and dirty, tooth and nail fight. Many would argue that this is what Donald Trump does best. Could Bernie stand the test? Probably. The real question, however, is can Sanders get his message across to the majority of the American people, and convince them, against all odds, that HE is the best choice to lead the country?

It is hard to predict, but certainly Bernie Sanders will not give in or give up in this fight. Is it good for the Democrats? Is it good for the US? Let us know what you think about this.

Photo: Gage Skidmore via flickr

The Iran Nuclear Deal: Remains of the Day.

After years of negotiation, on 15 July 2015 the JCPOA or “Iran Deal” was signed. The substance was that in exchange for curbing its nuclear program and allowing extensive inspection sanctions against the Islamic Republic would be lifted, funds released and trade normalized.

The parties to the agreement included:

Iran
EU
China
France
United Kingdom
Russia
Germany
United States

Things began well and Iran was found to be in compliance with the agreement. However US President Donald Trump had been against the agreement even before he had become US president, and in May 2018 he withdrew the US from the agreement–despite Iran’s full compliance with its obligations.

Trump’s problem with the agreement was that it did not cover Iran’s missile programs or its support of proxy actors in the region. Despite that that had never been part of the agreement, Trump balked at re-signing and withdrew the US from the JCPOA. Ironically, it was Iran hardliners who were happy with this since they didn’t like the deal any more that Trump and his closest allies.

Since the US withdrawal France, Germany and the UK have tried to keep the agreement afloat. The Europeans even created a barter system for food and medicine named INSTEX, but the US threatened to sanction anyone participating in the program.

In the face of continuing and crippling sanctions Iran returned to uranium enrichment. In early January 2020, the EU leaders held an emergency meeting to urge Iran to stick with the deal and cease enrichment. Iran has not complied, but neither have they ejected nuclear inspectors from the west.

US sanctions are heavy and crippling and are damaging an already ill Iranian economy. So far, it seems that sanctions have not done much to curb Iran’s support of its proxies in the region. One approach to diplomacy and life is if something is not working, do more of it. This seems to be the Trump administration’s policy with regard to Iran.

Even if the Europeans do not abandon the agreement, as Mr. Trump wants, the agreement might simply dissolve in the face of continued US pressure on Iran and the other signers. The Iranians see no need to re-negotiate, and would lose considerable face if they did so. And the US seems to see no need to get another deal anytime soon.

The 2015 agreement may have been flawed, and maybe not inclusive enough. But it was working and continued to work. Now what?

Can anything good come of this situation? Please let us know your thoughts.

Photo: US Dept. of State via flickr

The Year Begins With A Bang.

Well, 2020 started off with bang. We are not quiet getting back to things as usual but starting things from a very dangerous place. World tensions were ramped right up to a 9.0 over the US airstrike that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Tensions have been high since Donald Trump became president, and now they have gone to an all-time high.

As written in an earlier RG21 post, Iran is no match for the US one on one. Iran, however, does have the ability to conduct asymmetric warfare against the US through it naval and Special Forces and its proxies throughout the region.

Even before this, there were signs that things are changing in the region. December 2019 saw the first combined Iranian, Chinese, Russian naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman. If there was ever a sign of the waning and waxing of world powers, this could be it. America’s decline in world power and prestige could be traced to these exercises.

2020 also no relief for China in its ongoing problem in Hong Kong. All indications are that this problem will continue throughout the year although council elections in 2019 might have given the democratic opposition the face it needed to be seen as legitimate and to be taken seriously. China’s best bet is to let Hong Kong air its grievances through the ballot box and to responsibly govern under the One Country, Two Systems scheme.

The British people have sent a clear message about Brexit: it is their will that it happen. Before there was doubt, but the election was a “second referendum” and Boris Johnson is empowered to perform Brexit and bring Britain out of the EU.

French President Emmanuel Macron has his own set of problems and demonstrations on a Hong Kong scale minus the violence. It is just possible that Macron will hold on for a long time and join the ranks of France’s most respected presidents.

And the United States is scheduled to have a presidential election in November that will decide whether Donald Trump and the Republicans get another four years, or whether the Democrats can cobble together a coalition of voters strong enough to gain the White House and the senate. The events of the first week of January indicate that 2020 will be truly memorable–that is, if things continue at the current pace.

What is your opinion and what are your predictions for 2020? Please share your ideas with us.

Photo: Ancient Persian Guardsman via flickr.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays From RG-21!

All of us at RG21 would like to wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! We hope that 2019 has been a good year for you and that 2020 will be even better.

Also, thank you for following RG-21 throughout the year. Our aim is to report events and provide analysis that will be of significant value to our readers and ultimately lead to understanding and peace in our world. We look forward to hearing from you again in 2020.

Photo: Theo C. via flickr

Big Story 2019 #1 – Evolution of “One-Country, Two Systems.”

This year has seen severe testing of the One Country Two Systems (OCTS) principle in Hong Kong. While there have been demonstrations in the past (e.g. Umbrella Movement, 2014) there has been nothing on the scale of the protests in 2019 sparked by the government’s proposed extradition bill. And while the bill was later withdrawn, widespread and sustained protests have been ongoing for the second half of 2019.

Protests have been both peaceful and violent with clashes between demonstrators and Hong Kong police. Social unrest and widespread property damage have marked the protests, and some elements have targeted Beijing-affiliated businesses.

The real question raised by these protests is whether OCTS can survive and adapt. The former Portuguese territory of Macau is under OCTS and continues to function without major problems. For strategic reasons it would be to the benefit of Beijing for OCTS to work, as this would be the most painless way that Taiwan could be integrated back into greater China.

For a resolution of the Hong Kong question it seems that Hong Kong people must acknowledge that the former British territory is in fact part of China. For Beijing and its 70-year-old one party system, it might be time to re-think how the system can adapt to this new challenge. Historically China has always found a way to Sinicize peoples and systems and to make appropriate adjustments to new realities. Can Beijing do this with OCTS?

RG-21 will soon be publishing several reports on this topic. In the meantime, please feel free to give us your opinion on this very important matter.

Photo: Etan Liam via flickr

What Does “Impeachment” Mean?

The President, Vice President and all Civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors.”
— U.S. Constitution, Article II, section 4

Impeachment is a fairly straightforward process in the United States.The US House of Representatives brings charges against the president and the US Senate holds a trial. Nothing complicated. In the history of the United States there have only been two impeachments of the president, and both were unsuccessful.

The US House of Representatives in now taking the preliminary steps in the impeachment of President Donald Trump. Trump is accused of setting up a “quid-pro-quo” (something for something) with the president of Ukraine.

Mr. Trump allegedly asked for an investigation by Ukraine into his politicalrival, Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. It is alleged that Trump told Ukraine that the US would withhold military aid until such an investigation took place.

Evidence supporting these charges is now being taken by the House. The issue is pretty much split on party lines, with Republicans defending Trump and Democrats accusing him. Many people believe that Trump may be impeached, but will not be removed from office because the Republicans control the Senate, and there will not be enough votes to convict Mr. Trump.

People around the world are watching this. What do you think? Is Mr. Trump guilty of “high crimes and misdemeanors,” or is he the victim of his political enemies?

Please let us know your opinion.

Photo: US Constitution wikimedia

Turkey’s Military Fully Capable Of Projecting Power.

by David Parmer / Tokyo

The Turks live in a rough neighborhood–their country borders Iran, Iraq, Syria, and just across the Black Sea is Russia. So for defense alone they have to have credible military power. Moreover challenges often lie across the border, and they must have the ability to project power cross-border to defend what they see as their national interests. An example of this cross-border power projection was their October 2019 incursion into northern Syria in the wake of US withdrawal.

The Kurdish insurgency has always been a stone in their shoe, and so when the Kurds lost their American shield, it was the perfect vacuum in which to cross the border and deal with the long-standing issue of the Kurdish threat. Turkey easily has the power to do that, and their strength is impressive.

Estimates are that Turkey has 3/4 of a million soldiers under arms with another 1/2 million in reserve. They also have 4200 tanks of all types and 10,000 assorted armored vehicles, 475 helicopters, 1300 self-propelled artillery pieces and 1500 towed artillery pieces. They have over 500 combat aircraft including 270 F16 fighters-the biggest fleet outside of the US military. Although not playing a role in the current cross-border situation, they have a robust but small naval force of 16 frigates and 14 type-209 submarines. They also possess cruise missiles with a range of more that 150 miles.

Kurdish forces were, and are, no match for Turkish might, particularly without their American “allies.” News reports suggest that in the vacuum left by the Americans, the Kurds turned to President Bashar al Assad’s regime and its Russian allies for help. The Russians are now co-patrolling northern Syria with the Turks. It is indeed a complicated situation, for Turkey is a staunch NATO ally, and NATO faces off mainly against Russia.

Turkey gets its military hardware mainly from the US and Germany, NATO allies of theirs. They also have their own defense industry to make equipment like armored vehicles of all types. A surprise for NATO was President Erdogan’s decision to buy the powerful and deadly Russian S-400 Triumph air defense missile system instead of comparable equipment from American or other non-Russian suppliers.

That being said, President Erdogan has to walk a thin line between Russian and the US, its main supplier of military equipment, its NATO partner and the tenant at his Inchlink airbase. However, it is fairly clear that Turkey will not only act in what it sees as its self-interest, but will use its massive military power as it sees fit and will be willing to face criticism or even harsh sanctions to do so.

It is a complicated situation for all parties concerned. What is your opinion on this matter?

Photo:BMC Turkey, https://www.bmc.com.tr/en/corporate/press-center

China at 70 – Where From Here?

October 1, 2019 marked exactly 70 years since the late Mao Zedong stood atop the gate at Beijing’s Tiananmen Square and declared that the Chinese people had stood up, and henceforth China would be the People’s Republic of China.

The 70 year period was not without its challenges including armed clashed with three other world powers, the US, India and Russia and the growing, flowering, decline and growing again of one of the world’s biggest economies. Add to this the tumult brought about by the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution which was aimed at revitalizing the revolution and keeping ideology pure, but which resulted in the death of countless citizens and the doling out of large doses of misery to millions of others.

With Reform and Opening up in the early 1980s the pent up energy of the Chinese people was released and the world saw a real miracle as so many in the new China were lifted out of poverty as the economy showed almost unstoppable growth. China rose to be the #2 economy in the world defying all odds.

While economic growth has slowed, China is now set on a course to become a “moderately prosperous society” by the middle of this century. This vision, combined with the establishment of the Belt and Road initiative to revitalize the Silk Road are both visions of China’s future set forth by its president, Xi Jinping.

China is not without its problems going forward however. The ongoing trade war with the United States is one major headache. The Uighur minority in Xinjiang is another matter that must be addressed with wisdom and fairness. And now Hong Kong seems a problem with no easy solution that must be addressed in a creative way to ensure democracy and guarantee the rule of law. China’s claim to the South China Sea and its relations with Taiwan are also thorny issues going forward.

So what will the future be for China? A “moderately prosperous” society for the majority of its people as President Xi Jinping suggests, Or a rethinking of the China Dream in light of 21st century realities?

Please log in and give us your thoughts on this.

Alibaba in Transition: Will the Magic Continue?

“No company can rely solely on its founders” (Jack Ma)

“Our goal is that in five years we will serve more than one billion customers globally.” (Daniel Zhang)

As transitions go, the ascent of Daniel Zhang and the bowing out of Jack Ma at Alibaba was seamless. One year before Alibaba’s 20th anniversary on September 10, 2019, Jack Ma announced his retirement as Executive Chair of the world’s most valuable e-commerce company.

Founder Jack Ma’s story is the stuff of legend, and as such it will most likely be embellished and repeated for a long time to come.

Start with a skinny teacher of English who pedaled his bicycle through the rain to have a chance to chat with tourists to improve his English, add to that a guy who applied to, and was rejected by Harvard University 10 times, drop in the fact that he was also rejected by Kentucky Fried Chicken when they came to China, and then finish by retelling the part where the same guy had a vision of the Internet in China and subsequently became the richest man in China. Considering all of this, Jack Ma, or Ma Yun, is indeed a hard act to follow.

Daniel Zhang, by all accounts, seems to be up to the job.

A graduate of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Daniel Zhang joined Alibaba in 2007 at Taobao, the world’s biggest e-commerce website. Mr. Zhang’s background in finance might make him seem a bit lackluster compared to Alibaba’s founder, but clearly his is not without vision and imagination. On Zhang’s watch Single’s Day or Double 11, the wildly-successful online shopping spree was launched in 2009 on the T-Mall platform. Fast-forward to 2018 where Single’s Day saw sales reached $30.8 billion over a 24-hour period, easily eclipsing the Black Friday shopping day in the west.

The actual transition at Alibaba was celebrated with a huge party. Two short speeches were presented: one by Jack Ma, and one by the incoming Executive Chair, Daniel Zhang.

In his short speech Zhang outlined the vision for the future of Alibaba. Key points included:

To serve more than one billion customers worldwide in 5 years
To have the capability to handle 10 trillion RMB in transactions
To continue to create value for society
To solve society’s problems
To be a company that shoulders social responsibility

And now, with Jack Ma out of the picture it is up to Daniel Zhang and his team to make these goals and this vision for Alibaba’s future a reality. Will they succeed? Please let us know what you think about this.