タグ: China

How Will A Democratic Win in November 2020 Affect US-China Relations?

                        by David Parmer / Tokyo

US-China relations aren’t at their lowest ever–before President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972, the US and the PRC were not even talking to each other. No, things are not that bad, but in many ways they are still pretty bad.

The current US-China tensions are fueled by an ongoing trade war between the two superpowers mostly based on the Trump administration’s underlying assertion that the US has been taken advantage of by China over the decades and that it is now time to the US to stop being victimized by China. The second point of contention is that China is a rising superpower and now the world’s number two economy and that the US must compete with China.

This translates into seeing China as America’s most dangerous potential adversary and building alliances to handle this perceived threat. And of course, there is the question of Taiwan. The US continues to sell weapons and to upgrade weapons systems for Taiwan. China objects to this, but the US ignores those objections.

 What’s more, in 2018 the Trump administration did a $225 million upgrade of its Taiwan mission facilities. On top of this, in 2018 the US Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act which encouraged high-level officials from both the US and Taiwan to make reciprocal visits. As noted earlier, this could be construed by the PRC as the US walking back recognition of the PRC and the One-China Policy and upgrading of the status of Taiwan.

 So US-China relations are not at their worst, but they are certainly not very good. Now there is a good chance that in the 2020 election Donald Trump will not get a second term and that former Vice-President Joe Biden will be elected to replace Donald Trump as president. All indications are that it will be a contentious, dirty, hard fought election with allegations of foreign interference, vote tampering and vote suppression. Past performance indicates that Donald Trump will not be a graceful loser.

So with a Democratic president in the White House in the form of former Vice President Joe Biden, what could we expect with regard to US-China relations?

Indo-Pacific Strategy–Don’t look for much, if any, change here. This area is seen as of significant importance to America’s global power and reach, and is seen as a potent force to counter Chinese influence in the region.

South China Sea–Same again; not much, if any, change. America’s presence in this area will not diminish. It is seen as much too important to the overall US strategy to give any leeway on this issue.

Taiwan–The long-standing US commitment to Taiwan, especially from the US congress is not likely to change. What might change, however, is the US government’s emphasis on Taiwan. The support will be there, but actions by a Biden administration would be less confrontational than those of the Trump administration. US support goes all the way back to its support of Chiang Kai Shek and the Republic of China after WWII. So a less provocative stance by the US might be on the cards, but fundamentally no real change in policy except the avoidance of overtly-provocative actions that the PRC could not ignore like port calls by US warships for example.

Hong Kong–Not much change here either. Democrats are basically liberals, and what they consider human rights will be a priority for them. If US prestige is restored after the Trump debacle presidency, then “human rights” as preached by the US might again have some meaning around the world. Moral support for Hong Kong democracy will continue.

Xinjiang–In the same manner as with Hong Kong, American Democrats will continue to push for human rights in Xinjiang and Tibet.

Trade–This is a real problem for the US, and the Biden administration will have to do some serious “fence mending” with China (and many others). Tough negotiations are part of the game, but politically-motivated trade policies only hurt the perpetrator. One great concern is whether Chinese buyers will trust American suppliers again after relations have been fractured during the Trump Administration’s trade war with China. American products might be attractive in terms of quality and price, but buyers will have to consider whether the flow of commodities will be turned on and turned off like a faucet at a political whim in the future.

Overall: If there is a Biden administration in power, China can expect a return to normalcy in the US, i.e. a government run by professionals and not by ideology. There will be an end to the demonization of China and an end to the racist attitudes towards China, the PRC, and the Chinese people.

We can assume that the Democrats will fill the vacant jobs in the US government at all levels from ambassadors to department heads and again attract dedicated professionals to government service. Finally, a Biden administration might restore some order to the chaos caused by Donald Trump personally and by his ideologue cronies.

Will things return to normal? Will Joe Biden become the next president? It would be good for US-China relations, and probably good for the world. However, if we learn anything from China’s epic novel by Lo Kuan-chung, The Romance of The Three Kingdoms, it is just this: the good guys do not always win.

Photo:Marco Verch via flickr

For China, Tokyo 2020 is Just The Start of A Very Busy Two Years.

                              by David Parmer / Tokyo

There are a lot of expressions to explain the situation surrounding the Tokyo Olympics (Rescheduled) 2020. For example “up in the air”  “undecided”  “unclear” “murky” “fuzzy” “hazy” etc.

From all the news that is available from Japan and the IOC it seems that the rescheduling of the 2020 Olympics will be decided in the spring of 2021. And it seems clear that summer 2021 is “it” i.e. it is either next summer or not at all.

The other news for the Tokyo Olympics 2020 (Rescheduled) is that even if it is held, it will be scaled down in terms of fewer spectators at events and scaled-down opening and closing ceremonies. All well and good, we will just have to wait and see. But for China, there is a problem caused by this rescheduling, and it has to do with events that China will host post-Tokyo 20230.

China has a “full plate” of hosting major international sporting events in the 2021-2022 timeframe. All of these events, to one extent or another, will be affected by the postponement of the 2020 Tokyo Summer games, and the threat of COVID-19 contamination.

The events in question are:

China 14th National Games, (Xian Xiaanxi). China’s internal Olympics are directly affected by the dates of the Tokyo games. While the schedule cannot be confirmed, the dates of August 28-September 9, 2021 have been mentioned. This timeframe would put a strain on China’s athletes who would have to compete in two major international sporting events only 10 days apart.

World Summer University Games in (Chendu, Sichuan). As many as 10,000 student athletes would compete in the games which will be held August 18-29 2021. Again, this event like the China National Games is, just 10 days after the closing of the Tokyo Olympics. Organizers are moving forward with preparations despite the uncertainty surrounding both Tokyo and the threat of continued COVID-19.

Beijing winter Olympics (Beijing and Vicinity). The winter games are a bit farther down the timeline, scheduled to be held from February 4-20, 2022. China has a lot to do to get ready to host the winter games. Also, by this time, a model for the Olympics in the time of COVID-19 should have been established at the Tokyo games. So China and the International Olympic Committee will have a “template” to work from for the winter games.

19th Asian Games 2022 (Hangzhou, Zhejiang). To be held from September 10-25, 2022. Athletes from around Asia will be competing in 37 sports in venues in one of China’s most beautiful cities. The slogan for the 19th Asian Games is “Heart to Heart,@Future” which is a tip of a hat to the digital age being able to connect people.

For the next two years China will be planning and coordinating four major sporting events with thousands of athletes and their teams and many tens of thousands of visitors from around the world. What China learns not only from managing such events, but also in holding mega-events in the post-pandemic world will be lessons well worth learning and well worth sharing.

 

 

 

 

 

Photo: Du Kong, via flickr

Asian Waters–The Hai River and North China Water Supply.

                       by David Parmer / Tokyo

The concept behind Professor Joseph Needham’s massive work, Science and Civilization In China, was that in ancient times China was at the leading edge of technology while the rest of the world more or less muddled along. As for water management, records show that water management technology was known and practiced some 1500 years ago during the Sui Dynasty (581-618).

During the Sui, measures were already being taken to control and channel the Haihe or Hai River. Although we can say that the Hai River flows from Beijing to Tianjin and then to the Bohai Sea and that it is more than 1300km in length, this “linear” description would seriously miss the point.

For the Hai is not “a” river, but five bodies of water including the North Canal, the South Canal, the Yongding River, the Daqing River and the Ziya River that flow through Sandong, Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin. And more appropriately, this whole conglomeration can be seen as the Hai River basin encompassing an area of some 318km2

 

The Hai River in Tianjin is a pretty sight as it flows through the city under a series of attractive low-rise bridges. At night the banks of the river are illuminated, and colorful boats ply the river making for a festive scene.  For the greater Bohai basin however, things are not quite so attractive.  As with many of China’s other water sources, the twin problems of water pollution and water scarcity also affect the Hai River basin.

Water pollution has increased over the years due to uncontrolled economic development and the use of ground water for agriculture has led to varying degrees of water scarcity. Stakeholders including industry, shipping agriculture and recreation vie for Hai water resources and have all contributed to the water management problems facing the Chinese government.

Efforts to deal with the problems of water scarcity and water pollution were addressed in 2016 by an initiative called the Hai River Basin Project. Those involved were the Chinese government, the World Bank and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The World Bank advanced US$9.5 billion for the project to create an integrated water and environmental approach to the problem. The project not only examined to Hai River basin, but also its relation to the Bohai Sea. The target for all concerned was to come up with plans to upgrade the water quality and ecosystem sustainability in the Hai River basin.

At the same time, and to the south the government of China was engaged in a civil engineering project of staggering proportions– the South North Water Transfer Project. This scheme called for the transfer of 44.8 billion m3 of water from the Yangtze River to North China. This audacious project called for water resources from southern China to be pumped north via three separate and unique routes.

The Eastern Route

This route is basically an improvement on the venerable Grand Canal. Work began in 2002 and after delays was finished in 2014. The water transfer involves 13 pumping stations and a tunnel under the Yellow River traveling 1150 km before finally reaching the Tianjin area.

The Central Route

This route was started in 2003 and completed in 2014. It travels 1246km from the Danjiangkou Reservoir on the Han River to the Beijing area. While this route had the force of gravity on its side and did not require the pumping stations found on the eastern route, it did have serious environmental impacts in the form of the necessity to relocate 300,000 people.

The Western Route

Planned, but yet to be built, the Western route is the most ambitious and most audacious of the three routes. The plan is to divert waters of the upper Yangtze River to the Yellow River. It will cross the Tibetan and Yunnan Plateaus through a combination of dams and tunnels and then cross the Bayankala Mountains to northwest China. Besides being the most challenging of the three routes, the Western route also creates challenges in the areas of transboundry waters. Water diversion for this route would affect the great rivers of China’s neighbors; the Mekong, the Brahmaputra and Indus rivers.

There has been criticism of the South North Water Transfer Project in terms of sustainability, environmental damage and the displacement of peoples. In spite of this water flows north to Beijing, Tianjin and the Hai River basin where it is needed for agriculture and industry. The challenge now that water scarcity has been addressed is to keep water quality high in other areas so they can enjoy the benefits of fresh, clean water, as do the inhabitants of Tianjin on a regular basis. More needs to be done in terms of water conservation and wise water use and tough enforcement of water pollution rules, but attention will have to stay focused on this vital resource, not just for the Hai River but also for all water resources throughout China.

Photo: Tianjin Docsteacher Hai River

Illustration: Hai River Basin Wikipedia

Illustration: South North Water Transfer Project Ran Xin

The Year Begins With A Bang.

Well, 2020 started off with bang. We are not quiet getting back to things as usual but starting things from a very dangerous place. World tensions were ramped right up to a 9.0 over the US airstrike that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Tensions have been high since Donald Trump became president, and now they have gone to an all-time high.

As written in an earlier RG21 post, Iran is no match for the US one on one. Iran, however, does have the ability to conduct asymmetric warfare against the US through it naval and Special Forces and its proxies throughout the region.

Even before this, there were signs that things are changing in the region. December 2019 saw the first combined Iranian, Chinese, Russian naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman. If there was ever a sign of the waning and waxing of world powers, this could be it. America’s decline in world power and prestige could be traced to these exercises.

2020 also no relief for China in its ongoing problem in Hong Kong. All indications are that this problem will continue throughout the year although council elections in 2019 might have given the democratic opposition the face it needed to be seen as legitimate and to be taken seriously. China’s best bet is to let Hong Kong air its grievances through the ballot box and to responsibly govern under the One Country, Two Systems scheme.

The British people have sent a clear message about Brexit: it is their will that it happen. Before there was doubt, but the election was a “second referendum” and Boris Johnson is empowered to perform Brexit and bring Britain out of the EU.

French President Emmanuel Macron has his own set of problems and demonstrations on a Hong Kong scale minus the violence. It is just possible that Macron will hold on for a long time and join the ranks of France’s most respected presidents.

And the United States is scheduled to have a presidential election in November that will decide whether Donald Trump and the Republicans get another four years, or whether the Democrats can cobble together a coalition of voters strong enough to gain the White House and the senate. The events of the first week of January indicate that 2020 will be truly memorable–that is, if things continue at the current pace.

What is your opinion and what are your predictions for 2020? Please share your ideas with us.

Photo: Ancient Persian Guardsman via flickr.

China 2020 – Goodbye Cash, Hello Digital Currency?

                by David Parmer / Tokyo

North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un says the DPRK may give the US a surprise “Christmas present” in 2019. This could be anything from a nuclear test to sending more long-range missiles out over the ocean or over Japan. Whatever Kim does will be “big news.” However, bigger and more important news seems to be forthcoming from China.

Reports suggest that China is on the verge of launching the world’s first central bank digital currency. The People’s Bank Of China (PCOB) has been working on digital currency for five years, and now a small-scale launch in the eastern cities of Shenzhen and Suzhou might be just around the corner.

While China is “pro” digital currency, it is “anti” crypto currency. China has banned Bitcoin and coin exchanges and has banned Initial Coin Offering (ICO) since 2017, and overseas exchanges are not able to serve Chinese customers.  

In October 2019 President Xi Jinping gave the green light to for further digitalization by stating that China should embrace the blockchain technology needed for digital currency. One big upside for China with the introduction of an accountable digital currency is to create the real possibility of the internationalization of the Yuan. This will aid in China’s Belt and Road scheme, and ultimately challenge the long time supremacy of the US dollar.

A national digital currency would go a long way to putting an end to China’s nagging problem of currency counterfeiting. Moreover, online payments in China are dominated by Ali Pay and We Chat Pay and the new currency would theoretically dovetail with this trend toward a truly cashless-society. 

The bottom line is that while the world might focus on Kim Jong-un’s dramatic antics toward the end of 2019, the really important developments are taking place in China without as much fanfare. Chia’s development and immanent launch of a secure, national digital currency leading to the internationalization of the Yuan is a story without fireworks, but one worth watching very closely.

(Compiled from online sources.)

Photo: DP/Tokyo

Chongqing – Symbol of China’s Dynamic Present.

                        by David Parmer / Tokyo

What might China be like in the next 70 years? A quick look at the PRC’s fourth Provincial Level City of Chongqing might supply a lot of the answer to that question. Located at the confluence of the mighty Yangtze and Jialing rivers in mountainous Sichuan province, Chongqing has become the economic center of western China and a key component of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for re-inventing the Silk Road.

Chongqing’s population hovers around 32 million persons with the reported addition of 1300 more people every day. Other cities struggle with the influx of migrants seeking a better life, but it appears that Chongqing has a series of coping mechanisms to deal with this influx.

One such coping mechanism is sheer size. In a country where scale is usually mind boggling, the size of Chongqing is astounding. Its estimated 82,000KM2 makes it the size of a small European country; say Belgium or Austria for example. (And yet, so much of the area where Chongqing is located is mountainous and useable land is finite and being eaten up by constant development.)

So, to a certain extent, the city can handle and utilize the migrant inflow. In addition, the city guarantees certain things to migrants including the right to employment and a pension, public housing and schools for their children. Moreover Chongqing has a modern transportation system consisting of light rail, subway and scenic monorail. This means not only affordable transportation, but also a reduction of automobiles on the road.

Chongqing’s vibrant economy, the magnet for its migrant workers, includes traditional industries like iron and steel production and manufacturing. Chongqing is also China’s largest producer of automobiles and motorcycles with several major players including Ford Motor Company having facilities there.

The city has aimed to up-market its industries to encourage more hi-tech enterprises. One step toward this was the creation of a free trade zone that saw the participation of more than 12,000 firms in fields such as AI, aerospace and medical equipment.

Chongqing features big in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Starting in 2011, the Chongqing-Duisburg Germany rail link has seen more than 4100 trips carrying goods including personal computers to the West in a relatively-short 13-day overland trip. The city is also a party to the China-Singapore (Chongqing) Demonstration Initiative on Strategic Connectivity which met in Beijing in August 2019 to discuss cooperation in several areas including the construction of a land-sea corridor to SE Asia.

 Finally, Chongqing has had, and continues to have, a robust tourist industry featuring scenic spots around the city, abundant tourist attractions, the Three Gorges Dam and its famous Sichuan cuisine including hotpot and other spicy dishes.

Chongqing could be considered the face of China future, but right now it gives a great insight into the life, struggles and triumphs of a once sleepy backwater turning itself into a truly global city of the future.

Photo: Wikipedia

China at 70 – Where From Here?

October 1, 2019 marked exactly 70 years since the late Mao Zedong stood atop the gate at Beijing’s Tiananmen Square and declared that the Chinese people had stood up, and henceforth China would be the People’s Republic of China.

The 70 year period was not without its challenges including armed clashed with three other world powers, the US, India and Russia and the growing, flowering, decline and growing again of one of the world’s biggest economies. Add to this the tumult brought about by the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution which was aimed at revitalizing the revolution and keeping ideology pure, but which resulted in the death of countless citizens and the doling out of large doses of misery to millions of others.

With Reform and Opening up in the early 1980s the pent up energy of the Chinese people was released and the world saw a real miracle as so many in the new China were lifted out of poverty as the economy showed almost unstoppable growth. China rose to be the #2 economy in the world defying all odds.

While economic growth has slowed, China is now set on a course to become a “moderately prosperous society” by the middle of this century. This vision, combined with the establishment of the Belt and Road initiative to revitalize the Silk Road are both visions of China’s future set forth by its president, Xi Jinping.

China is not without its problems going forward however. The ongoing trade war with the United States is one major headache. The Uighur minority in Xinjiang is another matter that must be addressed with wisdom and fairness. And now Hong Kong seems a problem with no easy solution that must be addressed in a creative way to ensure democracy and guarantee the rule of law. China’s claim to the South China Sea and its relations with Taiwan are also thorny issues going forward.

So what will the future be for China? A “moderately prosperous” society for the majority of its people as President Xi Jinping suggests, Or a rethinking of the China Dream in light of 21st century realities?

Please log in and give us your thoughts on this.

 

Alibaba in Transition: Will the Magic Continue?

“No company can rely solely on its founders” (Jack Ma)

“Our goal is that in five years we will serve more than one billion customers globally.” (Daniel Zhang)

As transitions go, the ascent of Daniel Zhang and the bowing out of Jack Ma at Alibaba was seamless. One year before Alibaba’s 20th anniversary on September 10, 2019, Jack Ma announced his retirement as Executive Chair of the world’s most valuable e-commerce company.

Founder Jack Ma’s story is the stuff of legend, and as such it will most likely be embellished and repeated for a long time to come.

Start with a skinny teacher of English who pedaled his bicycle through the rain to have a chance to chat with tourists to improve his English, add to that a guy who applied to, and was rejected by Harvard University 10 times, drop in the fact that he was also rejected by Kentucky Fried Chicken when they came to China, and then finish by retelling the part where the same guy had a vision of the Internet in China and subsequently became the richest man in China. Considering all of this, Jack Ma, or Ma Yun, is indeed a hard act to follow.

Daniel Zhang, by all accounts, seems to be up to the job.

A graduate of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Daniel Zhang joined Alibaba in 2007 at Taobao, the world’s biggest e-commerce website. Mr. Zhang’s background in finance might make him seem a bit lackluster compared to Alibaba’s founder, but clearly his is not without vision and imagination. On Zhang’s watch Single’s Day or Double 11, the wildly-successful online shopping spree was launched in 2009 on the T-Mall platform. Fast-forward to 2018 where Single’s Day saw sales reached $30.8 billion over a 24-hour period, easily eclipsing the Black Friday shopping day in the west.

The actual transition at Alibaba was celebrated with a huge party. Two short speeches were presented: one by Jack Ma, and one by the incoming Executive Chair, Daniel Zhang.

In his short speech Zhang outlined the vision for the future of Alibaba. Key points included:

  • To serve more than one billion customers worldwide in 5 years
  • To have the capability to handle 10 trillion RMB in transactions
  • To continue to create value for society
  • To solve society’s problems
  • To be a company that shoulders social responsibility

And now, with Jack Ma out of the picture it is up to Daniel Zhang and his team to make these goals and this vision for Alibaba’s future a reality. Will they succeed? Please let us know what you think about this.

 

 

 

 

 

Asian Waters–Nu River Development Offers Only Hard Choices.

               by David Parmer / Tokyo

China’s Nujiang or Nu River runs a course of 3200km from the Tibet plateau through Myanmar and Thailand to eventually empty into the Andaman Sea. Once outside of China, the Nu River becomes the Salween River or Thanlwin River. The Nujiang is China’s last undammed river and one of the longest free-flowing rivers in the world, and that is its blessing and its curse.

Nujiang Prefecture in China’s southwest is home to some of its poorer minorities who are isolated both physically and culturally. These are the people of the Nu minority and the Lisu minority. (Strangely, some of the Nu people were converted to Catholicism and still maintain that affiliation.) A major drawback for them is a lack of knowledge of Mandarin Chinese, the language of their central government in Beijing.

The Nu River basin is an area of immense biodiversity having an estimated 6,000 unique plant species and 47 fish and amphibian species unique to the area and 143 other species of fish and amphibians. Other wildlife includes wild Ox, small pandas, and monkeys (World Atlas). The danger to this pristine ecosystem is development–development that would bring a higher standard of living to the poor minorities but would also threaten the ecosystem of the river as it winds its way from the highlands to the sea.

A “higher standard of living” really has to do with bringing the minorities to a power grid, and that power would come from energy generated hydroelectrically. To get that kind of power dams are necessary. And just as with the Mekong River, dams bring problems of their own. The Nu River flows over several earthquake faults, and dams in these areas could cause catastrophic damage should an earthquake occur.

Moreover, damming the free-flowing river waters would also have serious side effects on the fragile ecosystem. A series of 15 dams were proposed for the Nujiang in the early 2000s, but most have been put on hold. However, China-supported dam projects in the lower Salween River in Myanmar are ongoing.

In an effort to preserve the wild Nu areas, local authorities have created two national parks: the Nujiang Gran Canyon National Park and the Dulongjiang National Park. Perhaps tourism can bring world attention to this precious resource so that it can continue to benefit the local people, the countries through which the river flows and our planet.

Photo: Axel Drainville via flickr

Sands of Time–China’s Taklamakan Desert

inhospitable : adjective 

1: not showing hospitality : not friendly or receptive

2: providing no shelter or sustenance an inhospitable environment

Merriam-Webster.com

From all accounts, China’s Taklamakan Desert is one of the most inhospitable places on earth. Bordered by the Kunlun Mountains to the south, the Pamir Mountains to the west, the Tian Shan Mountains to the north, and the Gobi Desert to the east, the Taklamakan is often referred to as the “sea of death” or the “place of no return.”

The Taklamakan, which occupies 330,000km2 in China’s westernmost Xinjiang Uighur region, has an annual rainfall from 38-10mm, and temperatures that range from 400C to -200C. The topography consists of constantly-shifting sand dunes that can range from a height of around 240m to around 500m.

Wildlife, such as it is, consists of Camels, wild asses, foxes, wolves and gazelle. The peoples of the area are Uighurs of Turkic origin and Han Chinese. In ancient times peoples of all ethnicities transversed the area. Between 2005-2009, archeologists excavated a desert site called Xiaohe where they found almost perfectly-preserved mummies of people of Caucasian origin from an estimated 2000 BCE.

In modern times the People’s Republic of China has built roads across the vast emptiness of the Tarim Basin and the Taklamakan, but it ancient times travelers along the Silk Road avoided a direct crossing and skirted the desert on either a northern or southern route. A main Oasis on the fringe of the desert was Kashgar, which remains important today as a Chinese gate to Pakistan and a key station on the modern Silk Road.

From an economic standpoint, the only significant activity connected with this area is the Tarim Basin Oilfield which is rated as China’s 4th largest and covers an estimated 560,000km2. Yields of crude oil exceeding 5 million tons have been reported by PetroChina for the Tarim Oilfield. In addition, the company reports supplying 25 billion m3of natural gas annually.

Several companies offer tourists a chance to explore a part of this vast desert wilderness by road. There is only one report of a brave soul, a Korean man, who crossed the desert on foot in modern times.

Visiting the Taklamakan might not be an ideal vacation, but it would certainly be an adventure. Times change, trends come and go, but places like this (despite the shifting sands) seem to change little as the centuries go by.

photo: Aftab Uzzaman via flickr