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The Elders Stand Watch Over a Volatile World.

“The Elders are an independent group of global leaders working together for peace, justice and human rights.”

An organization of distinguished former world leaders, The Elders is dedicated to multilateralism and conflict resolution. Major areas of interest for The Elders are governance and leadership, the causes of conflict, inequality, exclusion and injustice.

The organization was founded by Nelson Mandela in 2007 and today has a list of leaders-emeritus including:

Mary Robinson–First woman president of Ireland
Ban Ki-moon–Former UN Secretary General
Graca Machel–First Education Minister of Mozambique
Lakhdar Brahimi–Former Algerian Foreign Minister
Grol Harlem Bruntland–First woman PM of Norway
Zeid Raad Al Hussein–Former UN High Commissionar For Human Rights
Hina Jilani–Lawyer and human rights champion
Ellen Johnson Sirleaf–Former president of Liberia
Ricardo Lagos–Former president of Chile
Juan Manuel Santos-Former president of Columbia
Ernesto Zedillo–Former president of Mexico

The Elders sees a better world coming about through attention and action and real focus on the following areas:

Ethical leadership and multilateral cooperation
Climate change
Refugees and migration
Universal health coverage
Access to justice
Conflict countries and regions

The organization is composed of peace makers and peace builders, social revolutionaries and leading women. They see their function being to open doors to decision makers, bring people together, and work for peace. In her introduction to The Elders 2018 annual report, Chair Mary Robinson said that for 2019 and beyond they must focus on climate change and nuclear proliferation while encouraging ethical leadership and multilateral cooperation.

In April 2019 an Elders delegation consisting of Mary Robinson, Ban Ki-moon, Kakhdar Brahimi, Ricardo Lagos and Ernesto Zedillo met with China’s President Xi Jinping and a group of Chinese leaders to discuss nuclear concerns, and climate. The Elders were also able to meet with students from China’s Foreign Affairs University to discuss a variety of topics including global citizenship and China’s role in the UN.

Certainly the ideas put forth by The Elders are squarely in contrast to nationalism and the attitude of “my country first” as expressed by the Donald Trump administration in Washington. And while the Trump administration does what it can to de-emphasize multinationals, it is good to know that an organization like The Elders is ready to call governments and organizations to account for abuses and misguided and harmful policies. We can all sleep a little more soundly knowing that such an organization exists and has our back.

Photo: The Elders

Advanced F-16 Sales To Taiwan – Ongoing Irritation or A “Red Line” for China?

As for late august 2019 it appears that a deal to sell 60 advanced F1-6 Block 70 fighters will receive US congressional approval and therefore become official. The US State Department has already signed off on the sale. Arms sales to Taiwan have been ongoing since 1979 when the Taiwan Relations Act that mandated US wepons sales to Taiwan was approved.

In the latest F-16 package, Taiwan will spend US$8 billion each for 60 aircraft and basic maintenance add-ons. Taiwan also flies 140 Block 20 F-16Vs that will receive an upgrade. The new Block 70 aircraft have advanced AESA radar similar to that used in the F-35 and the F-22. The new equipment lets pilots track 20 targets at a time and offers high-resolution maps and all-weather targeting and a Center Pedestal Display (CPD) providing greater tactical imaging for pilots.

US arms sales have been an ongoing irritation to the PRC, which views the Taiwan question as an internal matter and has threatened to take military action should any Taiwan independence activity take place. The question is what action China will take about this proposed sale? Is this another in a series of “annoyances” or is this sale a real game changer vis-a-vis China/Taiwan/US relations? Please let us know your thoughts on this.

Photo: Lockheed Martin

Russian Naval Exercises Underscore Strategic Baltic Importance.

In a world where conflict and potential conflict makes front-page news, northern Europe’s Baltic region often gets short shrift. The Indo-Pacific, The Middle East, and even Africa seem to get more coverage. Yet for a long time things have been heating up at the top of the world.

America has its eyes on arctic security and its military has established coverage of the northern areas of the globe particularly the north Atlantic. In addition to keeping an early warning system in place, the US is also committed to freedom of navigation in the North, as it is the China Sea.

Even China has arctic interests related to its Belt and Road initiative although, strictly speaking, it is an interested party and not an Arctic country. Naturally, the true Nordic countries of Sweden, Norway, Finland, Iceland, and Denmark have an interest in this domain, as it is their home neighborhood.

The Nordics have banded together to form NORDEFCO, to address the question of defense, mutual operability, and cooperation. (Some members of NORDEFCO are NATO members, and some are not.)

On the southern and eastern flank of the NORDEFCO countries lie the Baltic Sea and the vitally important states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These states form a buffer between the Russian Federation and the Baltic Sea. Russia’s only window on the Baltic are at the head of the Gulf of Finland and at Kalingrad (former East Prussia) where they have significant military assets.

For the second time in 2 years, Russia has put on a massive summer military exercise in the Baltic Sea. The exercise ran from 1 August to 9 August 2019. Dubbed “Ocean Shield 2019”, the exercise tested Russian equipment and tactics and fleet readiness with the US and NATO as its undeclared opponent. The exercise, which included amphibious landings, involved 10,000 Russian troops, 49 ships, and 58 aircraft.

NATO is well aware of Russia’s ability to project power in this part of the North. To bolster its own flanks, NATO proposed and implemented the Enhanced Forward Presence program (eFP) where NATO units would integrate, train and operate with the militaries of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. The result was 4 multinational battle groups supported by the UK, Germany, Canada, and the US. Their mission is to ensure the Baltic countries’ security. Units train with host nations and rotate every 6 months.

With global warming making Arctic transit more possible for longer times, and the never ending search for resources and China’s ongoing Belt and Road, access to the North whether it be the Arctic or the Baltic region will grow in importance. US officials predict that human activity will increase in what was heretofore remote and inaccessible land and sea areas. The Indo-Pacific and Middle East will continue to simmer, but from now on all major powers will have to keep their eyes looking north a lot of the time.

Photo: Russia MOD

British Troops in Estonia via flickr

Asian Waters–Nu River Development Offers Only Hard Choices.

by David Parmer / Tokyo

China’s Nujiang or Nu River runs a course of 3200km from the Tibet plateau through Myanmar and Thailand to eventually empty into the Andaman Sea. Once outside of China, the Nu River becomes the Salween River or Thanlwin River. The Nujiang is China’s last undammed river and one of the longest free-flowing rivers in the world, and that is its blessing and its curse.

Nujiang Prefecture in China’s southwest is home to some of its poorer minorities who are isolated both physically and culturally. These are the people of the Nu minority and the Lisu minority. (Strangely, some of the Nu people were converted to Catholicism and still maintain that affiliation.) A major drawback for them is a lack of knowledge of Mandarin Chinese, the language of their central government in Beijing.

The Nu River basin is an area of immense biodiversity having an estimated 6,000 unique plant species and 47 fish and amphibian species unique to the area and 143 other species of fish and amphibians. Other wildlife includes wild Ox, small pandas, and monkeys (World Atlas). The danger to this pristine ecosystem is development–development that would bring a higher standard of living to the poor minorities but would also threaten the ecosystem of the river as it winds its way from the highlands to the sea.

A “higher standard of living” really has to do with bringing the minorities to a power grid, and that power would come from energy generated hydroelectrically. To get that kind of power dams are necessary. And just as with the Mekong River, dams bring problems of their own. The Nu River flows over several earthquake faults, and dams in these areas could cause catastrophic damage should an earthquake occur.

Moreover, damming the free-flowing river waters would also have serious side effects on the fragile ecosystem. A series of 15 dams were proposed for the Nujiang in the early 2000s, but most have been put on hold. However, China-supported dam projects in the lower Salween River in Myanmar are ongoing.

In an effort to preserve the wild Nu areas, local authorities have created two national parks: the Nujiang Gran Canyon National Park and the Dulongjiang National Park. Perhaps tourism can bring world attention to this precious resource so that it can continue to benefit the local people, the countries through which the river flows and our planet.

Photo: Axel Drainville via flickr

Iran Relies on Asymmetric Strategy For Defense.

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Tensions between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran have continued to escalate during 2019, and while both countries say they do not want war there have been no talks and no detente. Much has been written about what a war between the US and Iran would look like, and what the consequences would be. One concept that is repeated in almost all writing on this topic is asymmetric (al) warfare.

The concept is quite simple. When two sides face off in a conflict situation, if one side is much stronger or more technologically advanced than the other side, then the weaker side might consider it necessary to resort to asymmetric warfare to even things up. Asymmetric warfare can be broadly considered to be any strategy, tactics, or technology to undermine the stronger adversary’s numerical and/or technological advantages.

Traditional guerrilla warfare is usually considered a form of asymmetric warfare, as is certain forms of terrorism. Often it is a question of non-state actors against state actors, for example, the ANC against the government of South Africa, or the Taliban against the government of Afghanistan.

If we compare conventional military resources available to both the US and Iran, we can clearly see a huge imbalance in favor of the US. In terms of manpower and technology the US is far superior to Iran. Iran’s air force is still flying some aircraft that are now museum pieces in the US–the F4 Phantom and the French Mirage fighters for example.

Considering these factors, it would seem that any US vs. Iran conflict would be over very quickly as the US would bring the power of its massive military machine (with help from its allies) to bear in a swift and lethal strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, its military forces and their bases, and the infrastructure of Iran itself. And Iran would be finished militarily–or would it?

In fact, Iran already has asymmetric capabilities in place to counter such a strike. Iran’s naval forces, in addition to some traditional naval assets, consist of small boats, many of them with anti-ship missiles on board which could attack and harass US and allied naval forces. More importantly, Iran has a developed missile program that includes short, medium, and long-range missiles. Many of these missiles would be on mobile launchers that would be hard to detect and eliminate. An example of this capability is the NOOR missile shown above. It is an anti-ship missile with an effective range of 170km. The NOOR is just one of a series of sophisticated anti-ship missiles in Iran’s arsenal.

Missiles like the NOOR can bring a real advantage to Iranian forces and enable it to enforce its own Anti Access Area Denial (A2AD) zone of influence and control. Denying a potential adversary from operating in its territorial waters and littoral areas is also a big part of China’s strategy, and it too has powerful anti-ship missiles ready to prevent any third party interference should there be a military confrontation with Taiwan.

Missiles and fast boats are only one part of Iran’s asymmetric capabilities. Equally lethal and troubling to the US would be Iran’s proxy partners.

While the US has its own allies in the region including some Arab states, Saudi Arabia and Israel, Iran has its own collection of potential allies. And while Iran’s allies are mostly non-state actors, they nonetheless pose a very lethal and robust threat to the US and its potential coalition partners.

These include, but are not limited to:

Yemen: Houti rebels

Afghanistan: Shia population

Iraq: Shia militia

Lebanon: Hezbollah

Gaza Strip: Hamas

Should a war break out between the US and Iran, a call to arms would go out to these various groups for support, one that would be readily answered. These groups could engage in all sorts of asymmetrical attacks (Improvised Explosive Devices, suicide bombing, truck bombing) to undermine and damage the US and its coalition partners.

The deployment of a US aircraft carrier and B52 bombers might send a strong message to Iran and to potential coalition partners, but such massive force may only succeed in winning Round #1 of any potential armed conflict.

The US needs to know that an attack on Iran would not be like earlier expeditions against Panama or Grenada in the 1980s, it would be more like Vietnam or occupied Iraq or Afghanistan. Such an adventure would be long, costly, and bloody, with destabilizing waves going out throughout the Middle East and around the world.

Asymmetric War: A Conceptual Understanding M R Sudhir

Photo: Iran NOOR anti-ship missile via wikipedia

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Person of Interest : Ursula von der Leyen, President-elect of the European Commission

Germany’s defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen has been narrowly elected to be the first female President of the European Commission. Von der Leyen will assume office 1 November 2019, one day after Britain’s promised departure from the EU.

Mrs. von der Leyen is a loyal ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and has held several important positions including the Ministry of Labor and the Ministry of Defense since 2013. As defense minister she performed oversight on military procurement and managed the withdrawal of German forces from Afghanistan.

Von der Leyen, 60 is the daughter of a career civil servant. She attended the London School of Economics and Hanover Medical School where she received her M.D. She is married to a fellow physician with whom they have 7 children. In addition to German, she speaks French and English.

As President of the European Commission, it is likely that she will continue to focus on women’s rights and environmental issues as well as strongly supporting European unity. Mrs. von der Leyen was though to be a strong candidate to replace Angela Merkel as German chancellor, but now it looks like her career will be capped with another and different challenge of equal, if not greater, importance.

Photo: Archive of the Sec. of Defense via flickr

Sands of Time–China’s Taklamakan Desert

inhospitable : adjective

1: not showing hospitality : not friendly or receptive

2: providing no shelter or sustenance an inhospitable environment

Merriam-Webster.com

From all accounts, China’s Taklamakan Desert is one of the most inhospitable places on earth. Bordered by the Kunlun Mountains to the south, the Pamir Mountains to the west, the Tian Shan Mountains to the north, and the Gobi Desert to the east, the Taklamakan is often referred to as the “sea of death” or the “place of no return.”

The Taklamakan, which occupies 330,000km²in China’s westernmost Xinjiang Uighur region, has an annual rainfall from 38-10mm, and temperatures that range from 40⁰C to -20⁰C. The topography consists of constantly-shifting sand dunes that can range from a height of around 240m to around 500m.

Wildlife, such as it is, consists of Camels, wild asses, foxes, wolves and gazelle. The peoples of the area are Uighurs of Turkic origin and Han Chinese. In ancient times peoples of all ethnicities transversed the area. Between 2005-2009, archeologists excavated a desert site called Xiaohe where they found almost perfectly-preserved mummies of people of Caucasian origin from an estimated 2000 BCE.

In modern times the People’s Republic of China has built roads across the vast emptiness of the Tarim Basin and the Taklamakan, but it ancient times travelers along the Silk Road avoided a direct crossing and skirted the desert on either a northern or southern route. A main Oasis on the fringe of the desert was Kashgar, which remains important today as a Chinese gate to Pakistan and a key station on the modern Silk Road.

From an economic standpoint, the only significant activity connected with this area is the Tarim Basin Oilfield which is rated as China’s 4th largest and covers an estimated 560,000km². Yields of crude oil exceeding 5 million tons have been reported by PetroChina for the Tarim Oilfield. In addition, the company reports supplying 25 billion m³of natural gas annually.

Several companies offer tourists a chance to explore a part of this vast desert wilderness by road. There is only one report of a brave soul, a Korean man, who crossed the desert on foot in modern times.

Visiting the Taklamakan might not be an ideal vacation, but it would certainly be an adventure. Times change, trends come and go, but places like this (despite the shifting sands) seem to change little as the centuries go by.

photo: Aftab Uzzaman via flickr

Hong Kong, Summer 2019 – A Thorny Problem for Beijing.

Hong Kong in the summer of 2019 really is a thorny problem for Beijing. All things considered, it looks like there is no “win” for Beijing, only a “not lose.”

A “Perfect Storm”

A perfect storm of conditions is coming together to make an almost impossible situation in which the Chinese government cannot get a positive outcome. The Hong Kong government has been tasked with dealing with the massive demonstrations opposing the now-defunct extradition bill. The kidnapping of anti-Beijing booksellers in the not-so-distant past gave demonstrators just the ammunition they needed for their protest, as it proved to them that the true purpose of the bill was not to extradite criminals to face justice, but to smother dissent in Hong Kong.

This has been a near impossible situation to deal with for the government of the SAR considering that university students are on holiday and out in full force, and that the world is watching via international media. While there were accusations of excessive force, the demonstrators did enter and vandalize the Legislative Council Building despite police presence.

As of mid-July 2019, protests continue. The second round of protests have been against mainland traders who buy up huge amounts of goods in Hong Kong for resale on the mainland which drives up inflation in Hong Kong. Police and protesters scuffled at a shopping mall and injuries were reported.

Demands from the protesters, in addition to the permanent scrapping of the extradition bill, now include an investigation into police brutality and the resignation of Chief Executive Carrie Lam.

The Use of Minimal Force

At present, it appears that Bejing’s decision is to continue to let the Hong Kong government handle the situation. The use of excessive force by the SAR or the Beijing government would damage the “soft power” that the PRC has been developing for decades culminating in the “Belt and Road” initiative.

The specter of the CCP’s handling of the 1989 Tian An Men Square incident also hangs over the Chinese government. Moreover, those “on the fence” in Taiwan regarding re-unification might be pushed to the pro-independence side if they were to see the PRC clamp down.

And the “no win” situation is just not for the government of the PRC.The protesters who are acting in such a way to preserve the freedom of Hong Kong under the One Country-Two Systems arrangement might just be putting an end to it.

Beijing’s Red Line

China’s long-term strategy is not yet clear. In the short term, the strategy is not to use excessive force. However there is a point where protest becomes anarchy. If anarchy were to ensue, then the PLA would be called in to maintain order. Once order had been restored, those “freedoms” that the protesters were fighting so hard to preserve might be lost forever.

No one knows where the red line is with the powers in Beijing and we are not privy to the thinking of the CCP. But be sure, there is a red line. When the passions of the protesters are aroused, it is unlikely that long-term thinking will prevail, and it is highly likely that anarchy will ensue. When anarchy does ensue, the CCP and PLA will act, and act decisively.

The above outcomes are not good for Hong Kong, and ultimately not good for China. But history has a way of being history, and in Hong Kong and other places around the world we can see history unfold from the comfort of our own homes on big-screen TVs.

What do you think about this matter? Please let us know.

photo: Etan Liam via flickr

Person of Interest: Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, President of Kazakhstan.

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Plus ca Change, Plus C’est La Meme Chose

In the case of the leadership of Kazakhstan, the French might be right: the more things change, the more they remain the same. On March 20, 2019, Kazakhstan’s first post-Soviet president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, stepped down after 29 years in office. Mr. Nazarbayev was replaced by career diplomat and government minister Kassym-Jomart Tokayev from his own Nur Otan party.

In June 2019 Mr. Tokayev was duly elected president (not without some protest in the country) with 71% of the popular vote. Mr. Tokayev has a solid resume of important positions giving him the experience and broad view to assume the presidency. He graduated from the Moscow State Institute of International relations in 1975 and began working for the Soviet Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He then had postings to Singapore and Beijing where he attended the Beijing Language Institute.

From 2002-2007 Mr. Tokayev served as Prime Minister of Kazakhstan. In 2011 he went to Geneva to work as Director General of the United Nations. In 2013 he became Chairman of the Senate of Kazakhstan. 2019 saw him start his term as president.

One of the legacies of President Nursultan Nazarbayev is the Astana International Financial Center (AFIC). AFIC was launched in 2018 and is designed to be a regional finance hub. It has relationships with the US NASDAQ and the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Kazakhstan is a key to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and has been described as by Forbes Magazine as “the most stable economy in the ‘stans’.” (Central Asia). Kazakhstan’s economy can also be compared to that of China in the1980s in that it has several state-run enterprises that must be sold off and made private.

While Mr. Nazarbayev is no longer president, he has not gone away. As Kazakhstan’s first president he is accorded elder statesman status for life. The Nazarbayev-Tokayev dynamic is similar to the current situation in Cuba where an elder statesman, Raul Castro, shadows a younger president, Miguel Diaz-Canel.

Kazakhstan has had a relatively smooth transition of power, and it looks like the work of the country’s first president will continue and his legacy remain intact. Everyone might not agree, but at least in this case, the sameness of change might just be a good thing for the country, the people of Kazakhstan, and the region.

Photo: UN Geneva via flickr

Abe to Lead G20 Summit in Osaka.

by David Parmer / Tokyo

On June 28 the leaders of 19 countries and the EU plus assorted invited organizations will converge on Osaka Japan for the 2019 Summit of Financial Markets and the World Economy, more commonly know as “The G20.”

Preceded and followed by a number of “satellite” ministerial meetings around the country, these leaders and guests at the Osaka venue will discuss global issues and issues related to the world economy. Topics will include:

Global economy
Trade
Innovation
Environment and Energy
Employment
Women’s empowerment
Development
Health

Host for this 14th meeting will be Japan, and point man will be her prime minister, Shinzo Abe. In his January 2019 speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland Abe laid out his hopes for the June 2019 Osaka summit.

His biggest priority was data governance:

“I would like Osaka G20 to be long remembered as he summit that started world-wide data governance.”

Mr. Abe’s second point was his desire for disruptive technology to address climate change:

“In Osaka, here comes my second point, ladies and gentlemen, I would very much like to highlight what innovation does and how much innovation counts in tackling climate change, because, and this is an important “because,” we NEED disruptions.”

And finally, in the Davos speech Mr. Abe said:

“My third and last point is about Japan’s commitment. Japan is determined to preserve and committed to enhancing the free, open, and rules-based international order.”

On the official Japanese G20 website, Mr. Abe defined Japan’s further aims at the G20:

“At the Osaka Summit, Japan is determined to lead global economic growth by promoting free trade and innovation, achieving both economic growth and reduction of disparities, and contributing to the development agenda and other global issues with the SDGs at its core. Through these efforts, Japan seeks to realize and promote a free and open, inclusive and sustainable, “human-centered future society.”

In addition, we will lead discussions on the supply of global commons for realizing global growth such as quality infrastructure and global health. As the presidency, we will exert strong leadership in discussions aimed towards resolving global issues such as climate change and ocean plastic waste.

Furthermore, we will discuss how to address the digital economy from an institutional perspective and issues that arise from an aging society. We will introduce Japan’s efforts, including the productivity revolution amid a “Society 5.0” era, towards achieving a society where all individuals are actively engaged.”

Mr. Abe ended his welcome with pledge:

“With great support from you all, I am determined to lead the Osaka Summit towards great success.”

News reports leading up to the G20 summit have been focusing on a possible Trump-Xi meeting on the sidelines to discuss the US-China trade war. This is indeed of great importance to all concerned; to the parties involved, to the region and to the world.

Having said that, Mr. Abe’s strong commitment to get things done, and important things at that, would deserve a bit more coverage and focus than say Japan’s world-renowned ometenashi hospitality and the Trump-Xi meeting.

Speech by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe Davos 2019

Message by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe G20 Website

Photo: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe official photo via wikipedia