Big Story 2019 #2 – Ghosn But Not Forgotten.

It was just over a year ago on November 19, 2018 that Carlos Ghosn, Chairman and CEO of Nissan-Renault-Mitsubishi was arrested at Tokyo’s Haneda airport.The arrest was the result of a secret investigation and it has been said that it completely blindsided Mr. Ghosn.

Prosecutors have charged Mr. Ghosn with financial misconduct and breach of trust. He been charged with under-reporting his income and moving funds to a Lebanese company connected to his family. Mr. Ghosn denies all charges and claims he is the victim of a conspiracy to prevent the further integration of Renault and Nissan.

Mr. Ghosn was held in confinement for 130 days before being released on bail. He is not allowed to see his wife who is peripherally related to the case. Mr. Ghosn has hired a team of lawyers and called for a dismissal of all charges. There has been criticism of Japan’s legal system as “hostage justice” that gets more than 90% convictions in its cases.

The trail of Carlos Ghosn sometime in 2020 will be the staple of nightly news. It may even eclipse the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. The question is whether Mr. Ghosn was a “king” who became drunk on power and dreams, or an outsider who ran afoul of the Japan Inc. system and “home team” mentality. Whichever you choose to believe, it is certain that it will be hard to ignore the name Carlos Ghosn in 2020.

Photo: WEF via flickr

Air Astana is Doing Something Right.

             by David Parmer / Tokyo

It is seldom that a person or organization gets positive reviews across the board, but that is the case for Kazakhstan’s national carrier, Air Astana. Customers and aviation writers give the airline top marks for both equipment and customer service. Air Astana is a relatively young airline, having first gotten off the ground in 2002. In the past 17 years it has moved from success to success, posting a US$5.3million profit in 2018 and being consistently profitable along the way.

Reviewers note friendly staff, clean aircraft and good service as reasons for customer satisfaction. A factor they also consider is its relatively young fleet: the average age is 7.1 years. (Legacy carriers, on the other hand, can have fleets with an average age of up to double this figure). Moreover, the fleet is constantly being upgraded.

Air Astana is flying mostly the Airbus A320, and has taken delivery of its first A321LR narrow body aircraft. The A321LR will replace its aging Boeing 757s and enable long-haul flights to destinations such as Tokyo, Singapore and Shanghai. In 2020 Air Astana will use the A321LR for its Astana-London route.

Air Astana’s latest success has been the launch of Kazakhstan’s first LCC: Fly Arystan. Launched in 2019, the LCC has already flown nearly half a million passengers. The airline is looking to have a fleet of 15 aircraft by 2022. The business model for Fly Arystan is low fares plus a high quality product.

The only cloud on the horizon for Kazakhstan’s booming airline industry’s seems to be a lack of infrastructure that can keep pace with its ongoing success. New airports and new infrastructure will have to catch up to the demands of a regional national carrier moving onto the world stage.

If you haven’t seen any aircraft with the distinctive Air Astana or Fly Arystan logos yet, there is a good chance that you will, for these two airlines are going places–literally.

photo: Air Astana Airbus, Christian Junker via flickr

Compiled from Web sources.

Georgieva Takes Over At IMF: “Buckle Up!”

On October 1, 2019 Bulgarian economist Kristalina Georgieva took over from Christine Lagarde as Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).  For Georgieva, it was more of a lateral move from one top job to another; she had been CEO the World Bank since January 2017, so the new position was more of a change of focus than something totally new.

Georgieva, who is fluent in Bulgarian, English, and Russian, is a career bureaucrat with an MA in Political Economy, and PhD in Economics and the other of more than 100 academic papers. Her first major job was as European Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Management. Notable achievements were Georgieva’s work in 2010 with the Haiti Earthquake, the Chile Earthquake, and the Pakistan Flood. In 2014 she became Vice President of the European Commission, and this followed with the World Bank position.

Kristalina Georgieva is a strong supporter and promoter of gender equality in the workplace, particularly in the boardroom. When at the World Bank she set and achieved gender parity at the top level. On October 16, Reuters quoted her as saying “Buckle Up!” The meaning is that it will be a bumpy or accelerated transition at the IMF, or that there will be exciting times ahead.

Pasted below is her first speech at the IMF where MD Georgieva lays out her plans and vision and understanding of the work of the IMF at present and in the years to come. One thing seems clear about the new head of the IMF­–the words “status quo” are not in her dictionary.

_______________________________________________

                                  October 18, 2019

1. Introduction

Mr. Chairman, Governors, distinguished Guests:

It is a great honor to address you for the first time as Managing Director of the IMF—and even more so in the presence of James Wolfensohn, who placed the fight against poverty at the heart of the World Bank.

I am very fortunate to take over from a remarkable woman, whose vision and dedication have made the IMF stronger, more innovative, and more relevant. Thank you, Christine!

And most sincere thanks to David Lipton, who has so ably led the Fund in this interim period.

I am delighted to share the stage with Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum, the Chair of the Board of Governors; and David Malpass, the President of the World Bank Group. It is a privilege to join you in serving our members.

Let me begin by quoting John Maynard Keynes, one of our founding fathers, who once said:

Economics is essentially a moral science and not a natural science. That is to say, it employs introspection and judgments of value.”

These words speak to the purpose of the IMF and its staff.

For all their methodical work, Fund staff are guided by their commitment to improving people’s lives. They are not just employing judgements of value; they are seeking to add real value.

In everything we do, we aim to make a clear connection between our work and the benefits it brings for the economies and people of our member countries.

I have seen this first-hand when the IMF supported my own country, Bulgaria, in its economic transformation—from crisis, to recovery, to more jobs and higher living standards.

I have seen time and again how ordinary people benefit when transitions are well managed, when the IMF is playing its essential role in promoting sound policies for inclusive and sustainable growth.

And I am mindful of the responsibility that comes with my position—especially at a time of accelerating change in technology, climate, and the nature of work, to name just a few.

Change creates huge new opportunities but also risks that we all must navigate.

In this environment, I think of the Fund as being an important “transmission line”—of knowledge, financial resources, good policies, and capacity development. A wealth of experiences and tools that help countries embrace the benefits of change and reduce the risk of falling behind.

2. Global outlook

Being able to transmit the right signals is always important, but even more so when the world economy faces headwinds. Indeed, after a synchronized upswing, we are now facing a synchronized slowdown.

A deceleration in nearly 90 percent of the world [i] means that growth this year is expected to reach only 3 percent [ii] —its lowest rate since the beginning of the decade.

Yes, the global economy is still growing—but too slowly.

This is partly because trade tensions are now taking a toll on business confidence and investment. Add to this increased uncertainty—from Brexit to geopolitical tensions—and a further drag on growth from demographic pressures and record-high debt levels.

This all spells a troubling medium-term outlook, especially in countries already facing difficulties, including some of the Fund’s program countries.

We estimate that 45 developing countries, a total of nearly 1 billion people, will grow more slowly in per capita terms than the advanced world. [iii] Instead of catching up, those countries are set to fall further behind.

To meet this challenge, we need to step up cooperation within and across borders.

What does that mean?

It means that countries must work together to find a lasting solution on trade and keep tensions from spilling over into other critical areas, such as currencies and technology.

We need to move from trade truce to trade peace.

Here, the recent announcement by the United States and China is a step in the right direction. The goal should be to build a better trade system—one that is fairer, more innovative, and more inclusive.

It also means building consensus at home to ensure that a more balanced approach is taken to support growth.

Slower growth requires that monetary policy remain supportive. But we all recognize that it cannot do the job alone. Where space is available, fiscal policymust play a more active role.

Above all, countries need to be committed to structural reforms that can boost productivity and resilience.

Think of lowering barriers to entry in service sectors, tackling gender discrimination in the labor market, and modernizing legal frameworks to reduce red tape and fight corruption.

Structural reforms are never easy to do. They sometimes involve taking on entrenched vested interests. And they require paying careful attention to the impact on vulnerable groups.

But they are critical to avoid getting stuck in mediocre growth—and to promote productivity, job creation, and higher incomes.

How can the IMF best support you in these efforts?

3. Strengthening the connection between policies and people

By further strengthening the connection between policies and people’s lives. By delivering results for you.

I see three priorities:

(a) Economic fundamentals

One is to focus on economic fundamentals. For Fund staff, that is always the starting point. Always recognizing that sound economic policies are not an end in themselves—but rather a means to build more prosperous societies.

I have personally witnessed the power of good policies and the impact of bad policies. During Bulgaria’s currency crisis in the 1990s, my mother lost 98 percentof her life savings to hyperinflation.

That is something I always remember when I look at economic reform programs.

A good example is Jamaica, where two IMF-supported programs have delivered tangible results: a reduction in public debt by 50 percent of GDP, historically low unemployment, and inflation stability.

And I want to congratulate the Jamaican government for being very creative in bringing society on board—using reggae music to communicate the benefits of low inflation.

This focus on results has been driving the ongoing progress in the Fund’s approach: improving the design of our lending programs, including expanding support for low-income countries at zero interest; upgrading our surveillance to enhance traction; and further integrating our capacity development with our surveillance and lending.

Given the precarious outlook, we must go further.

This means even more focus on countries that would be affected most in a downturn—fragile states, for example; and using our tools even more effectively, including precautionary instruments.

Above all, it means making our efforts even more attuned to individual country circumstances. In this way, we can deliver even better service to you.

(b) Inclusive growth

The second priority is to focus on what matters most to people in their daily lives.

Better jobs with higher wages, greater access to finance, and more opportunities for women and young people: these are all areas where we need more potent reforms and more public and private investment.

This will help countries to make their economies both more competitive and more inclusive. The goal is to unlock the full potential of human capital in all countries.

In other words, if you want to be wealthy tomorrow, invest in your people today.

It is appropriate, therefore, that the Fund has significantly stepped up its engagement on social spending issues.

In Ghana, helping to create fiscal space for more education spending. In Georgia, supporting efforts to increase the minimum public pension. In Egypt, helping to expand a cash transfer program for poorer households. [iv]

And in many countries, helping to boost public revenue—which is essential for progress on the Sustainable Development Goals.

We will maintain this momentum and continue to build on the Fund’s strengths. Our global membership gives us a unique cross-country perspective; and a unique perspective over time—75 years of experience, which we are marking this year.

History also teaches us that our success depends on strong partnerships, including with other international organizations like the World Bank.

Think about what our joint efforts have already achieved: from debt relief in low-income countries, to financial stability assessments across a broad range of countries, to effective engagement on fintech and its implications for all countries.

I commit to work with David Malpass to further expand our collaboration in key macro-critical areas, as well as on the ground in program countries.

(c) Reinvigorating international cooperation

This brings me to the third priority— reinvigorating international cooperation.

I have always admired the IMF’s commitment to building bridges between nations. Even as some countries become more reluctant to reach out across borders, the global economy becomes increasingly intertwined.

So many issues can only be effectively addressed by working together. Action on climate is one of them. Here I am greatly encouraged to see the IMF’s continuing work on mitigation and adaptation, especially on carbon pricing and building resilience.

Action on trade also requires more international cooperation, not less.

The same goes for corporate taxation, financial regulation, and fighting money laundering and the financing of terrorism.

In this moment of heightened uncertainty, we also need a strong global financial safety net, with a well-resourced IMF at its center.

Safeguarding the IMF’s financial strength is a top priority—combined with continued efforts to ensure that the IMF’s governance becomes ever more reflective of its dynamic membership.

On this critical point, I am pleased to inform you that earlier this morning the IMFC endorsed a package—to ensure that the Fund will continue to have sufficient resources to provide full confidence that it can adequately support our membership and that quota and governance reforms will continue under the 16thGeneral Review.

A properly resourced, properly representative Fund will be even more effective in addressing your needs.

Being more effective also means continuing to learn from experience and—at the same time—continuing to modernize the Fund: streamlining our systems, leveraging new technology, and further increasing the diversity of our staff—the IMF’s greatest asset. Your greatest asset.

I want to thank them profoundly for their tireless efforts on your behalf.

I also want to thank my Management team and our Executive Directors. Thank you for placing your trust in me.

4. Conclusion

Serving our 189 member countries—large and small, rich and poor—is the greatest honor of my life.

As someone who grew up behind the Iron Curtain, I could never have expected to lead the IMF. That experience holds a simple lesson:

Nothing is impossible. Change is unstoppable. We can build a better world.

Thank you.

______________________________

IMF Georgieva Speech

Reuters: “Buckle Up!”

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Compiled from WEB Sources

 

Sidney Rittenberg and the End of an Era.

                      by David Parmer / Tokyo

On August 24, 2019, Sidney Rittenberg, one of the last of a generation of foreigners involved in the birth or the People’s Republic of China passed away at age 98. That generation included Dr. George Hatem, Edgar Snow, Anna Louise Strong, Agnes Smedley, Rewi Alley, and Dr. Norman Bethune among others. Of this group, it was only Sidney Rittenberg who became well known for his life after October 1, 1949.

Mr. Rittenberg grew up in Charleston, South Carolinian and attended the University of North Carolina where he majored in Philosophy. During this time Mr. Rittenberg became a member of the American Communist Party. During WWII he was sent to Stanford University for language study where he mastered Chinese. He served in the US Army in China during the war, and after his discharge worked for the United Nations, and then eventually made his way to Yan’an where he met Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai. In 1946 Mr. Rittenberg became a member of the Chinese Communist Party.

During his time in China Rittenberg was imprisoned for 15 years, much of it in solitary confinement. His first imprisonment was from 1949 to 1955, allegedly at the order of Joseph Stalin himself who claimed that Rittenberg was a member of an international spy organization. One out of jail he went back to work as a foreign advisor working for the Chinese government.

Sidney Rittenberg immersed himself in the Cultural Revolution; he became a radical and participated in the factional denunciation of others. However, he himself was caught in the net of the Cultural Revolution, being denounced by no one less than Jiang Qing, wife to Mao Zedong. He was imprisoned for another 9 years, and upon his release, in 1980 returned to the US. He said that he held Joseph Stalin and Jiang Qing responsible for his life behind bars and not the Chinese people. 

On his return to the US he found a teaching position at Pacific Lutheran University and established a consulting company, Rittenberg & Associates to capitalize on his Chinese connections created over half a century.

Mr. Rittenberg’s death really closes a tumultuous chapter of Chinese history that set the stage for the birth of China as a world superpower. This new China faces 21st century challenges no less difficult than those witnessed by Sidney Rittenberg and his generation of foreign observers and participants.

Photo: Sidney Rittenberg

 Sidney Rittenberg: China History Podcast

 

Chongqing – Symbol of China’s Dynamic Present.

                        by David Parmer / Tokyo

What might China be like in the next 70 years? A quick look at the PRC’s fourth Provincial Level City of Chongqing might supply a lot of the answer to that question. Located at the confluence of the mighty Yangtze and Jialing rivers in mountainous Sichuan province, Chongqing has become the economic center of western China and a key component of President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) for re-inventing the Silk Road.

Chongqing’s population hovers around 32 million persons with the reported addition of 1300 more people every day. Other cities struggle with the influx of migrants seeking a better life, but it appears that Chongqing has a series of coping mechanisms to deal with this influx.

One such coping mechanism is sheer size. In a country where scale is usually mind boggling, the size of Chongqing is astounding. Its estimated 82,000KM2 makes it the size of a small European country; say Belgium or Austria for example. (And yet, so much of the area where Chongqing is located is mountainous and useable land is finite and being eaten up by constant development.)

So, to a certain extent, the city can handle and utilize the migrant inflow. In addition, the city guarantees certain things to migrants including the right to employment and a pension, public housing and schools for their children. Moreover Chongqing has a modern transportation system consisting of light rail, subway and scenic monorail. This means not only affordable transportation, but also a reduction of automobiles on the road.

Chongqing’s vibrant economy, the magnet for its migrant workers, includes traditional industries like iron and steel production and manufacturing. Chongqing is also China’s largest producer of automobiles and motorcycles with several major players including Ford Motor Company having facilities there.

The city has aimed to up-market its industries to encourage more hi-tech enterprises. One step toward this was the creation of a free trade zone that saw the participation of more than 12,000 firms in fields such as AI, aerospace and medical equipment.

Chongqing features big in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Starting in 2011, the Chongqing-Duisburg Germany rail link has seen more than 4100 trips carrying goods including personal computers to the West in a relatively-short 13-day overland trip. The city is also a party to the China-Singapore (Chongqing) Demonstration Initiative on Strategic Connectivity which met in Beijing in August 2019 to discuss cooperation in several areas including the construction of a land-sea corridor to SE Asia.

 Finally, Chongqing has had, and continues to have, a robust tourist industry featuring scenic spots around the city, abundant tourist attractions, the Three Gorges Dam and its famous Sichuan cuisine including hotpot and other spicy dishes.

Chongqing could be considered the face of China future, but right now it gives a great insight into the life, struggles and triumphs of a once sleepy backwater turning itself into a truly global city of the future.

Photo: Wikipedia

Lake Chad Today–A Template for Tomorrow’s Conflicts And For Tomorrow’s Solutions.

               by David Parmer / Tokyo

A Model For Future Conflicts and Their Solution?

Central Africa’s Sahel region between the Sahara Desert and equatorial Africa might just hold the model for world conflicts in the second quarter of the 21st century and beyond. The geopolitical situation around Lake Chad with its environmental and social problems could very well be the first in a series of eviro-conflicts that beg for a simple solution, but are in fact a complex interweave of factors.

Causes of the Problem I: Water Use and Climate Change

Four countries border Lake Chad; Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria, but another four use the lake water. These include Algeria, Central African Republic, Libya, and Sudan. Lake Chad has, however, shrunk significantly since the 1970s. It has gone from an area of 20,000 KM2to an area of 2, 000 KM2  this been attributed to global warming or climate change and also to an increasing demand for water. Add to this an increase in population and the displacement of populations (up to 2.3 million people) due to the ongoing insurgency lead by Boko Haram, and the plot begins to thicken. A decrease in water has also created friction between herders and farmers, both stakeholders in the water use debate.

 Causes of the Problem II: Boko Haram Islamist Insurgency

 Since 2009 Boko Haram, a militant fundamentalist group, has been on the offensive in an attempt to establish an Islamist state in central Africa. Boko Haram has been designated as a terrorist group by Britain, the United States, New Zealand, and the United Nations. Forces from Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria have been working together for 8 years in an attempt to defeat Boko Haram. In one recent high-profile operation Boko Haram kidnapped 100 schoolgirls from a technical college in Dapachi bringing worldwide attention and concern to the problem. Many say there is no military solution to this insurgency, and therefore a political settlement is in order. Owing to the extreme positions of the organization and its promotion of strict Sharia law, it is no wonder that a solution has not been reached. Moreover, it is doubtful that a solution acceptable to all parties will ever be reached.

Solutions to the Problem I

 In September 2019 Nigeria, Niger and Chad agreed on a joint trans-border agro-ecosystem program designed to restore livelihoods and to restore the lake. The parties agreed on the occasion of a joint meeting in New Delhi dealing with desertification.

Solutions to the Problem II

One grand scheme to save the lake is the Transaqua Project that has gained financial commitment from both China and Italy. PowerChina has pledged a $1.8 million investment while Italy’s Bonifica has pledged $2.5 million. The project calls for the refilling of Lake Chad by bringing water from the River Congo in the Democratic Republic of Congo through a navigable canal 2400KM long to the Chari River and then to Lake Chad. Additional benefits of the project (in addition to saving the lake) would be water for agriculture, hydroelectric power for the region and rail and road transportation along the canal. This scheme was proposed decades ago but has now been dusted off and is gaining traction in the 21st century.

Solutions to the Problem III

Another plan calls for water to be pumped up from the Ubangi River over the mountains to the Chari River using solar power. The group behind this scheme is called The Solar Option. Benefits of The Solar Option include the fact that the equipment would come on line rapidly as opposed to the long timeline for the Transaqua project. Also the Solar Option requires no dams, and costs a projected 10% of the cost of the Transaqua.

Solutions to the Problem IV

To add further nuance to the problem/solution matrix of the Lake Chad situation we only have to consult a new report, building on the work of a previous G7 report, which is entitled Shoring up Stability, Addressing Climate and Fragility Risks in the Lake Chad Region. The findings of the report suggest that the popular belief that Lake Chad is continuing to shrink is not correct. The fluctuations in the water level are normal and ground water is stable while surface water has shrunk. The key finding of the report is that it is conflict and not climate change that is to blame in the Lake Chad situation. A number of social issues are what is fueling the problem not just the climate change factor, which is indeed important but not key when compared to the social and political causes of the situation.

Conclusion

 The problems and solutions relating to the ecological and social impacts on the Lake Chad region are varied. No single, simple solution will bring relief to the lake, to the region and to the displaced people who live there. A clear vision of the problem, and cooperation among stakeholders will be the only way forward in saving this wonderful lake and in saving the livelihoods of the people who inhabit this region and this vitally important part of Africa.

Photo: Lake Chad, Cameroon and Sahara from ISS. NASA via flickr

Photo: Lake Chad basin crisis via flickr

The Elders Stand Watch Over a Volatile World.

“The Elders are an independent group of global leaders working together for peace, justice and human rights.”

An organization of distinguished former world leaders, The Elders is dedicated to multilateralism and conflict resolution. Major areas of interest for The Elders are governance and leadership, the causes of conflict, inequality, exclusion and injustice.

The organization was founded by Nelson Mandela in 2007 and today has a list of leaders-emeritus including:

  • Mary Robinson–First woman president of Ireland
  • Ban Ki-moon–Former UN Secretary General
  • Graca Machel–First Education Minister of Mozambique
  • Lakhdar Brahimi–Former Algerian Foreign Minister
  • Grol Harlem Bruntland–First woman PM of Norway
  • Zeid Raad Al Hussein–Former UN High Commissionar For Human Rights
  • Hina Jilani–Lawyer and human rights champion
  • Ellen Johnson Sirleaf–Former president of Liberia
  • Ricardo Lagos–Former president of Chile
  • Juan Manuel Santos-Former president of Columbia
  • Ernesto Zedillo–Former president of Mexico

 The Elders sees a better world coming about through attention and action and real focus on the following areas:

  • Ethical leadership and multilateral cooperation
  • Climate change
  • Refugees and migration
  • Universal health coverage
  • Access to justice
  • Conflict countries and regions

The organization is composed of peace makers and peace builders, social revolutionaries and leading women. They see their function being to open doors to decision makers, bring people together, and work for peace. In her introduction to The Elders 2018 annual report, Chair Mary Robinson said that for 2019 and beyond they must focus on climate change and nuclear proliferation while encouraging ethical leadership and multilateral cooperation.

In April 2019 an Elders delegation consisting of Mary Robinson, Ban Ki-moon, Kakhdar Brahimi, Ricardo Lagos and Ernesto Zedillo met with China’s President Xi Jinping and a group of Chinese leaders to discuss nuclear concerns, and climate. The Elders were also able to meet with students from China’s Foreign Affairs University to discuss a variety of topics including global citizenship and China’s role in the UN.

Certainly the ideas put forth by The Elders are squarely in contrast to nationalism and the attitude of “my country first” as expressed by the Donald Trump administration in Washington. And while the Trump administration does what it can to de-emphasize multinationals, it is good to know that an organization like The Elders is ready to call governments and organizations to account for abuses and misguided and harmful policies. We can all sleep a little more soundly knowing that such an organization exists and has our back.

Photo: The Elders

 

 

 

Russian Naval Exercises Underscore Strategic Baltic Importance.

In a world where conflict and potential conflict makes front-page news, northern Europe’s Baltic region often gets short shrift. The Indo-Pacific, The Middle East, and even Africa seem to get more coverage. Yet for a long time things have been heating up at the top of the world.

America has its eyes on arctic security and its military has established coverage of the northern areas of the globe particularly the north Atlantic. In addition to keeping an early warning system in place, the US is also committed to freedom of navigation in the North, as it is the China Sea.

 Even China has arctic interests related to its Belt and Road initiative although, strictly speaking, it is an interested party and not an Arctic country. Naturally, the true Nordic countries of Sweden, Norway, Finland, Iceland, and Denmark have an interest in this domain, as it is their home neighborhood.

The Nordics have banded together to form NORDEFCO, to address the question of defense, mutual operability, and cooperation. (Some members of NORDEFCO are NATO members, and some are not.)

On the southern and eastern flank of the NORDEFCO countries lie the Baltic Sea and the vitally important states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These states form a buffer between the Russian Federation and the Baltic Sea. Russia’s only window on the Baltic are at the head of the Gulf of Finland and at Kalingrad (former East Prussia) where they have significant military assets.

For the second time in 2 years, Russia has put on a massive summer military exercise in the Baltic Sea. The exercise ran from 1 August to 9 August 2019. Dubbed “Ocean Shield 2019”, the exercise tested Russian equipment and tactics and fleet readiness with the US and NATO as its undeclared opponent. The exercise, which included amphibious landings, involved 10,000 Russian troops, 49 ships, and 58 aircraft.

British Forces in Estonia.

NATO is well aware of Russia’s ability to project power in this part of the North. To bolster its own flanks, NATO proposed and implemented the Enhanced Forward Presence program (eFP) where NATO units would integrate, train and operate with the militaries of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. The result was 4 multinational battle groups supported by the UK, Germany, Canada, and the US. Their mission is to ensure the Baltic countries’ security. Units train with host nations and rotate every 6 months.

With global warming making Arctic transit more possible for longer times, and the never ending search for resources and China’s ongoing Belt and Road, access to the North whether it be the Arctic or the Baltic region will grow in importance. US officials predict that human activity will increase in what was heretofore remote and inaccessible land and sea areas. The Indo-Pacific and Middle East will continue to simmer, but from now on all major powers will have to keep their eyes looking north a lot of the time.

Photo: Russia MOD

British Troops in Estonia via flickr

Asian Waters–Nu River Development Offers Only Hard Choices.

               by David Parmer / Tokyo

China’s Nujiang or Nu River runs a course of 3200km from the Tibet plateau through Myanmar and Thailand to eventually empty into the Andaman Sea. Once outside of China, the Nu River becomes the Salween River or Thanlwin River. The Nujiang is China’s last undammed river and one of the longest free-flowing rivers in the world, and that is its blessing and its curse.

Nujiang Prefecture in China’s southwest is home to some of its poorer minorities who are isolated both physically and culturally. These are the people of the Nu minority and the Lisu minority. (Strangely, some of the Nu people were converted to Catholicism and still maintain that affiliation.) A major drawback for them is a lack of knowledge of Mandarin Chinese, the language of their central government in Beijing.

The Nu River basin is an area of immense biodiversity having an estimated 6,000 unique plant species and 47 fish and amphibian species unique to the area and 143 other species of fish and amphibians. Other wildlife includes wild Ox, small pandas, and monkeys (World Atlas). The danger to this pristine ecosystem is development–development that would bring a higher standard of living to the poor minorities but would also threaten the ecosystem of the river as it winds its way from the highlands to the sea.

A “higher standard of living” really has to do with bringing the minorities to a power grid, and that power would come from energy generated hydroelectrically. To get that kind of power dams are necessary. And just as with the Mekong River, dams bring problems of their own. The Nu River flows over several earthquake faults, and dams in these areas could cause catastrophic damage should an earthquake occur.

Moreover, damming the free-flowing river waters would also have serious side effects on the fragile ecosystem. A series of 15 dams were proposed for the Nujiang in the early 2000s, but most have been put on hold. However, China-supported dam projects in the lower Salween River in Myanmar are ongoing.

In an effort to preserve the wild Nu areas, local authorities have created two national parks: the Nujiang Gran Canyon National Park and the Dulongjiang National Park. Perhaps tourism can bring world attention to this precious resource so that it can continue to benefit the local people, the countries through which the river flows and our planet.

Photo: Axel Drainville via flickr

Person of Interest : Ursula von der Leyen, President-elect of the European Commission

Germany’s defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen has been narrowly elected to be the first female President of the European Commission. Von der Leyen will assume office 1 November 2019, one day after Britain’s promised departure from the EU.

Mrs. von der Leyen is a loyal ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and has held several important positions including the Ministry of Labor and the Ministry of Defense since 2013. As defense minister she performed oversight on military procurement and managed the withdrawal of German forces from Afghanistan.

Von der Leyen, 60 is the daughter of a career civil servant. She attended the London School of Economics and Hanover Medical School where she received her M.D. She is married to a fellow physician with whom they have 7 children. In addition to German, she speaks French and English.

As President of the European Commission, it is likely that she will continue to focus on women’s rights and environmental issues as well as strongly supporting European unity. Mrs. von der Leyen was though to be a strong candidate to replace Angela Merkel as German chancellor, but now it looks like her career will be capped with another and different challenge of equal, if not greater, importance.

Photo: Archive of the Sec. of Defense via flickr