Asian Waters–The Hai River and North China Water Supply.

                       by David Parmer / Tokyo

The concept behind Professor Joseph Needham’s massive work, Science and Civilization In China, was that in ancient times China was at the leading edge of technology while the rest of the world more or less muddled along. As for water management, records show that water management technology was known and practiced some 1500 years ago during the Sui Dynasty (581-618).

During the Sui, measures were already being taken to control and channel the Haihe or Hai River. Although we can say that the Hai River flows from Beijing to Tianjin and then to the Bohai Sea and that it is more than 1300km in length, this “linear” description would seriously miss the point.

For the Hai is not “a” river, but five bodies of water including the North Canal, the South Canal, the Yongding River, the Daqing River and the Ziya River that flow through Sandong, Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin. And more appropriately, this whole conglomeration can be seen as the Hai River basin encompassing an area of some 318km2

 

The Hai River in Tianjin is a pretty sight as it flows through the city under a series of attractive low-rise bridges. At night the banks of the river are illuminated, and colorful boats ply the river making for a festive scene.  For the greater Bohai basin however, things are not quite so attractive.  As with many of China’s other water sources, the twin problems of water pollution and water scarcity also affect the Hai River basin.

Water pollution has increased over the years due to uncontrolled economic development and the use of ground water for agriculture has led to varying degrees of water scarcity. Stakeholders including industry, shipping agriculture and recreation vie for Hai water resources and have all contributed to the water management problems facing the Chinese government.

Efforts to deal with the problems of water scarcity and water pollution were addressed in 2016 by an initiative called the Hai River Basin Project. Those involved were the Chinese government, the World Bank and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The World Bank advanced US$9.5 billion for the project to create an integrated water and environmental approach to the problem. The project not only examined to Hai River basin, but also its relation to the Bohai Sea. The target for all concerned was to come up with plans to upgrade the water quality and ecosystem sustainability in the Hai River basin.

At the same time, and to the south the government of China was engaged in a civil engineering project of staggering proportions– the South North Water Transfer Project. This scheme called for the transfer of 44.8 billion m3 of water from the Yangtze River to North China. This audacious project called for water resources from southern China to be pumped north via three separate and unique routes.

The Eastern Route

This route is basically an improvement on the venerable Grand Canal. Work began in 2002 and after delays was finished in 2014. The water transfer involves 13 pumping stations and a tunnel under the Yellow River traveling 1150 km before finally reaching the Tianjin area.

The Central Route

This route was started in 2003 and completed in 2014. It travels 1246km from the Danjiangkou Reservoir on the Han River to the Beijing area. While this route had the force of gravity on its side and did not require the pumping stations found on the eastern route, it did have serious environmental impacts in the form of the necessity to relocate 300,000 people.

The Western Route

Planned, but yet to be built, the Western route is the most ambitious and most audacious of the three routes. The plan is to divert waters of the upper Yangtze River to the Yellow River. It will cross the Tibetan and Yunnan Plateaus through a combination of dams and tunnels and then cross the Bayankala Mountains to northwest China. Besides being the most challenging of the three routes, the Western route also creates challenges in the areas of transboundry waters. Water diversion for this route would affect the great rivers of China’s neighbors; the Mekong, the Brahmaputra and Indus rivers.

There has been criticism of the South North Water Transfer Project in terms of sustainability, environmental damage and the displacement of peoples. In spite of this water flows north to Beijing, Tianjin and the Hai River basin where it is needed for agriculture and industry. The challenge now that water scarcity has been addressed is to keep water quality high in other areas so they can enjoy the benefits of fresh, clean water, as do the inhabitants of Tianjin on a regular basis. More needs to be done in terms of water conservation and wise water use and tough enforcement of water pollution rules, but attention will have to stay focused on this vital resource, not just for the Hai River but also for all water resources throughout China.

Photo: Tianjin Docsteacher Hai River

Illustration: Hai River Basin Wikipedia

Illustration: South North Water Transfer Project Ran Xin

US Election 2020 Who’s Who – Bernie Sanders.

                      David Parmer/Tokyo

It is February 2020, and the race to be the Democratic nominee to face Donald Trump in the general election of 2020 is on. Now, the candidate leading the pack is the senator from Vermont, Bernard “Bernie” Sanders. The senator was born in 1941 making him 78 years old. This is not unusual in a field with former Vice President Joe Biden and Donald Trump himself being in their 70s. 

Senator Sanders graduated the University of Chicago in 1964 and from that time identified himself with left-leaning causes. After being a small town mayor he served in the US House of Representatives for 16 years. In 2007 he was elected to the US Senate where he serves today.

He now proudly calls himself a democratic socialist. He looks to the Nordic model of democratic socialism with high taxes and extensive benefits for all. The senator’s left-leaning positions are highly attractive to idealistic young people, particularly his positions on free university education, raising the minimum wage, protecting the environment, and dealing with global warming.

Sanders has always been an Independent, but he is now running for the nomination of the Democratic Party. The question for the Democrats is electability. Can their candidate be elected by more than a majority of the US populace, and especially in the states of Pennsylvania and Ohio? Can Sanders win against Donald Trump? Many people seem to think so. But is this reality, or thinking inside a bubble?

 Donald Trump would come out hard against the senator’s “socialism.” And in fact, he already has done so and he will continue to do so. Trump, being president, always has the spotlight and the microphone. Moreover, Trump is a ruthless and vicious infighter. Whoever faces Trump this election will be in for a bloody and dirty, tooth and nail fight. Many would argue that this is what Donald Trump does best. Could Bernie stand the test? Probably. The real question, however, is can Sanders get his message across to the majority of the American people, and convince them, against all odds, that HE is the best choice to lead the country?

It is hard to predict, but certainly Bernie Sanders will not give in or give up in this fight. Is it good for the Democrats? Is it good for the US? Let us know what you think about this.

Photo: Gage Skidmore via flickr

The Iran Nuclear Deal: Remains of the Day.

After years of negotiation, on 15 July 2015 the JCPOA or “Iran Deal” was signed. The substance was that in exchange for curbing its nuclear program and allowing extensive inspection sanctions against the Islamic Republic would be lifted, funds released and trade normalized.

The parties to the agreement included:

  • Iran
  • EU
  • China
  • France
  • United Kingdom
  • Russia
  • Germany
  • United States

Things began well and Iran was found to be in compliance with the agreement. However US President Donald Trump had been against the agreement even before he had become US president, and in May 2018 he withdrew the US from the agreement–despite Iran’s full compliance with its obligations.

Trump’s problem with the agreement was that it did not cover Iran’s missile programs or its support of proxy actors in the region. Despite that that had never been part of the agreement, Trump balked at re-signing and withdrew the US from the JCPOA. Ironically, it was Iran hardliners who were happy with this since they didn’t like the deal any more that Trump and his closest allies.

Since the US withdrawal France, Germany and the UK have tried to keep the agreement afloat. The Europeans even created a barter system for food and medicine named INSTEX, but the US threatened to sanction anyone participating in the program.

In the face of continuing and crippling sanctions Iran returned to uranium enrichment. In early January 2020, the EU leaders held an emergency meeting to urge Iran to stick with the deal and cease enrichment. Iran has not complied, but neither have they ejected nuclear inspectors from the west.

US sanctions are heavy and crippling and are damaging an already ill Iranian economy. So far, it seems that sanctions have not done much to curb Iran’s support of its proxies in the region. One approach to diplomacy and life is if something is not working, do more of it. This seems to be the Trump administration’s policy with regard to Iran.

Even if the Europeans do not abandon the agreement, as Mr. Trump wants, the agreement might simply dissolve in the face of continued US pressure on Iran and the other signers. The Iranians see no need to re-negotiate, and would lose considerable face if they did so. And the US seems to see no need to get another deal anytime soon.

The 2015 agreement may have been flawed, and maybe not inclusive enough. But it was working and continued to work. Now what?

Can anything good come of this situation? Please let us know your thoughts.

Photo: US Dept. of State via flickr

 

 

Happy Lunar New Year 2020!

We at RG21 would like to wish all of our readers in Asia and around the world a very happy, healthy and prosperous Lunar New Year. We hope you have time to spend with family and friends enjoying everything that this festive season offers. And we hope that you are refreshed, rested and ready to challenge the exciting 2020s. We look forward to having you as our readers this year and for many years to come! Gong Xi Fa Cai!

It’s January, and That Means it’s Time for Davos Again.

                           David Parmer / Tokyo

This year is the 50th anniversary of the founding of the annual winter meeting of the World Economic Forum. The event is usually simply referred to as “Davos” from its location in Davos-Klosters in Switzerland. The event/organization was founded in 1971 by Professor Klaus Schwab from the University of Geneva. The goal of Professor Schwab’s organization is nothing short of having as its target to “improve the state of the world.”

Over the years with numerous meetings and programs like the Davos meetings the organization has attempted to do just this by bringing together leaders from business, government and academia as well as other members of society to attempt to realize that one lofty goal of improving the state of the world.

Reports have the WEF being supported by no less that 1,000 companies paying a very hefty buy-in to become supporters. As the level of support goes up, so does the financial commitment. In 2018 there were around 3,000 participants at the “Winter Davos” (there is also a “Summer Davos” held in China) from 110 countries. It should also be noted that this year the event itself will be carbon neutral and every possible effort will be made to put sustainability as a key touchstone for the organization and execution of the meeting.

This year the theme of the meeting is “Stakeholders For a Cohesive and Sustainable World.” Professor Schwab has charged the participants with producing the Davos Manifesto 2020 to be a guide for the next 50 years.

Topics addressed at this year’s meeting include six key areas:

  • Ecology
  • Economy
  • Technology
  • Society
  • Geopolitics
  • Industry

Another key topic to be addressed at Davos 2020 will be the future of Capitalism. In the past there has been Shareholder Capitalism and State Capitalism but the proposal going forward is suggested to be Stakeholder Capitalism that includes such features as companies and organizations acting responsibly by:

  • Paying a fair share of taxes
  • Having zero tolerance for corruption
  • Upholding human rights in the supply chain
  • Advocating for a level playing field

Davos is not without its critics who claim the meeting is just a “talking shop” or a meeting of elites who don’t get things done. While it is hard to measure the effects of both the WEF and Davos it might just be a good idea to have people with real influence getting together and at least talking about how to improve the state of the world than doing nothing.

Bottom line: It’s January 2020 and the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum with be held from 21-24 in Davos-Klosters Switzerland.

Photo: Courtesy WEF via flickr

Taiwan Elections 2020–A Done Deal?

                          by David Parmer / Tokyo

January 11, 2020 is Election Day in Taiwan. Voters will be choosing both a president and a number of legislators in Saturday’s election. Will there be any surprises in the election? All indications seem to indicate that there will not be any surprises.

Most bettors would probably put their money on incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen to be re-elected and to defeat her opponents: KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu and People’s First Party James Soong Chu-yu. Barring some last-minute catastrophic change or event, Tsai will get another 4 years. What will be interesting to see is if the opposition parties gain legislative seats or even a significant number of seats.

President Tasi’s first four years have been unremarkable. Perhaps stability in a tense situation is what she brings to the Taiwan-PRC equation.Tsai’s DPP suffered legislative defeat in 2019 and Tsai resigned as party head to take responsibility. What might have followed was a resurgence of the KMT and the DPP being swept away were it not for the social unrest in Hong Kong. Tsai’s long-standing rejection of Beijing’s One Country, Two Systems offer may have a strong resonance among Taiwan voters looking west.

Cross-Strait relations are always in the forefront when considering Taiwan and the PRC. Relations warmed up under KMT President Ma Jing-yeou but immediately cooled when the DPP took over. At present Beijing has barred individual travel to Taiwan, thus damping the tourist industry and eliminating valuable cash inflow. Also, at the same time, President Tsai has had some success in luring Taiwanese companies home to Taiwan.

Improved ties and a melding of the two Taiwan and Mainland economies would be an attractive outcome for Beijing. For cultural and economic reasons the two entities would draw closer. A virtually seamless economy might make One Country, Two Systems more palatable to many people in Taiwan. In addition this would negate the necessity of a costly military option that would bring negative outcomes to all parties involved.

Some reports say that President Tsai and the DPP might be working on improving these cross-Strait relations, and this has stolen some thunder from Han Ku-yu’s program. However, as long as the DPP and President Tsai do not reaffirm the “1992 Consensus” and the “Once China” policy, it is likely that there will be little significant warming of relations between Taiwan and the PRC.

In the beginning of 2020 China has its hands full with the situation in Hong Kong and its public relations fail in convincing the world of what it describes as its fair treatment of its Uighur population. So it is unlikely that Beijing will ratchet up tensions with Taiwan (barring the crossing of the reddest of red lines, i.e. a declaration of Taiwan independence) in the short term, and that it will be pretty much “business as usual” in Taiwan in 2020 following the election of January 11.

Photo: National Renewable Energy Lab via flickr

The Year Begins With A Bang.

Well, 2020 started off with bang. We are not quiet getting back to things as usual but starting things from a very dangerous place. World tensions were ramped right up to a 9.0 over the US airstrike that killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. Tensions have been high since Donald Trump became president, and now they have gone to an all-time high.

As written in an earlier RG21 post, Iran is no match for the US one on one. Iran, however, does have the ability to conduct asymmetric warfare against the US through it naval and Special Forces and its proxies throughout the region.

Even before this, there were signs that things are changing in the region. December 2019 saw the first combined Iranian, Chinese, Russian naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman. If there was ever a sign of the waning and waxing of world powers, this could be it. America’s decline in world power and prestige could be traced to these exercises.

2020 also no relief for China in its ongoing problem in Hong Kong. All indications are that this problem will continue throughout the year although council elections in 2019 might have given the democratic opposition the face it needed to be seen as legitimate and to be taken seriously. China’s best bet is to let Hong Kong air its grievances through the ballot box and to responsibly govern under the One Country, Two Systems scheme.

The British people have sent a clear message about Brexit: it is their will that it happen. Before there was doubt, but the election was a “second referendum” and Boris Johnson is empowered to perform Brexit and bring Britain out of the EU.

French President Emmanuel Macron has his own set of problems and demonstrations on a Hong Kong scale minus the violence. It is just possible that Macron will hold on for a long time and join the ranks of France’s most respected presidents.

And the United States is scheduled to have a presidential election in November that will decide whether Donald Trump and the Republicans get another four years, or whether the Democrats can cobble together a coalition of voters strong enough to gain the White House and the senate. The events of the first week of January indicate that 2020 will be truly memorable–that is, if things continue at the current pace.

What is your opinion and what are your predictions for 2020? Please share your ideas with us.

Photo: Ancient Persian Guardsman via flickr.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays From RG-21!

All of us at RG21 would like to wish you a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays! We hope that 2019 has been a good year for you and that 2020 will be even better.

Also, thank you for following RG-21 throughout the year. Our aim is to report events and provide analysis that will be of significant value to our readers and ultimately lead to understanding and peace in our world. We look forward to hearing from you again in 2020.

Photo: Theo C. via flickr

China 2020 – Goodbye Cash, Hello Digital Currency?

                by David Parmer / Tokyo

North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un says the DPRK may give the US a surprise “Christmas present” in 2019. This could be anything from a nuclear test to sending more long-range missiles out over the ocean or over Japan. Whatever Kim does will be “big news.” However, bigger and more important news seems to be forthcoming from China.

Reports suggest that China is on the verge of launching the world’s first central bank digital currency. The People’s Bank Of China (PCOB) has been working on digital currency for five years, and now a small-scale launch in the eastern cities of Shenzhen and Suzhou might be just around the corner.

While China is “pro” digital currency, it is “anti” crypto currency. China has banned Bitcoin and coin exchanges and has banned Initial Coin Offering (ICO) since 2017, and overseas exchanges are not able to serve Chinese customers.  

In October 2019 President Xi Jinping gave the green light to for further digitalization by stating that China should embrace the blockchain technology needed for digital currency. One big upside for China with the introduction of an accountable digital currency is to create the real possibility of the internationalization of the Yuan. This will aid in China’s Belt and Road scheme, and ultimately challenge the long time supremacy of the US dollar.

A national digital currency would go a long way to putting an end to China’s nagging problem of currency counterfeiting. Moreover, online payments in China are dominated by Ali Pay and We Chat Pay and the new currency would theoretically dovetail with this trend toward a truly cashless-society. 

The bottom line is that while the world might focus on Kim Jong-un’s dramatic antics toward the end of 2019, the really important developments are taking place in China without as much fanfare. Chia’s development and immanent launch of a secure, national digital currency leading to the internationalization of the Yuan is a story without fireworks, but one worth watching very closely.

(Compiled from online sources.)

Photo: DP/Tokyo

Big Story 2019 #1 – Evolution of “One-Country, Two Systems.”

This year has seen severe testing of the One Country Two Systems (OCTS) principle in Hong Kong. While there have been demonstrations in the past (e.g. Umbrella Movement, 2014) there has been nothing on the scale of the protests in 2019 sparked by the government’s proposed extradition bill. And while the bill was later withdrawn, widespread and sustained protests have been ongoing for the second half of 2019.

Protests have been both peaceful and violent with clashes between demonstrators and Hong Kong police. Social unrest and widespread property damage have marked the protests, and some elements have targeted Beijing-affiliated businesses.

The real question raised by these protests is whether OCTS can survive and adapt. The former Portuguese territory of Macau is under OCTS and continues to function without major problems. For strategic reasons it would be to the benefit of Beijing for OCTS to work, as this would be the most painless way that Taiwan could be integrated back into greater China.

For a resolution of the Hong Kong question it seems that Hong Kong people must acknowledge that the former British territory is in fact part of China. For Beijing and its 70-year-old one party system, it might be time to re-think how the system can adapt to this new challenge. Historically China has always found a way to Sinicize peoples and systems and to make appropriate adjustments to new realities. Can Beijing do this with OCTS?

RG-21 will soon be publishing several reports on this topic. In the meantime, please feel free to give us your opinion on this very important matter.

Photo: Etan Liam via flickr