News | RG21 - Part 4

World’s Toughest Job? Johnny Chiang Takes Helm at Taiwan KMT.

On March 9, 2020 Johnny Chiang took office as the new president of Taiwan’s KMT party. (Some might say “China’s KMT”…) Many observers feel that the relatively youthful Chiang, 48, has a rough road ahead. Chiang won a decisive victory over his rival Hua Ling-pin by collecting 68.8% of the vote in a low-turnout KMT election. Chiang immediately promised to reform and revitalize the venerable KMT. He promised to do this in terms of party culture as well structure. There was also talk of a more de-centralized or localized KMT.

What makes his job difficult is not just the stodgy image of the KMT and its membership, but also the fact that over 50% of the population consider themselves “Taiwanese” and not Chinese. Despite Beijing’s slow but steady chipping away at Taiwan’s diplomatic alliances, many young people see Taiwan as already an independent country. Polls show that just about 4% of Taiwanese consider their island part of China.

All of this makes the KMT’s historically pro-Beijing KMT party line a difficult sell to both to younger people as well as to a majority of the Taiwanese. Chiang’s promises of reform and restructuring may indeed succeed, and the KMT may re-invent itself as a leaner, more modern and robust opposition party.

However, the “panda in the room” is the 1992 Consensus and the One-China policy. From the beginning Mr. Chiang has said that in the short term there will be no announcement on the 1992 Consensus and that a committee will decide. His deft dodging of the question harks back to that master politician himself, Deng Xio-ping, who essentially did the same thing decades before when discussing the fate of Taiwan.

With local elections coming in 2022 and presidential elections again in 2024, the KMT will really have to answer the “one China/ 1992 Consensus” question if it is to have any chance of gaining legislative seats or indeed the presidency itself. What might happen is that the KMT drops its historically pro-Beijing posture and gets closer to the DPP’s position on China. This will get them more votes domestically, but then both parties will have to face the displeasure of the CCP.

Just as Mr. Chiang had won decisively this time, incumbent president Tsai Ing-wen’s Democratic Progressive Party had captured the presidency in the January 2020 elections. After a recent election defeat, Tsai Ing-wen had to step down as DPP party head, and it appeared that the KMT would be resurgent in 2020 and that she would be out. But thanks to the unrest and demonstrations in Hong Kong in 2019, Tsai’s fortunes were reversed and she kept a decisive hold on the presidency.

Here we are in 2020 and now it is being said that Johnnie Chiang and the KMT have little chance to gain power. At this point it might seem true, but if Mr. Chiang sets to work with a purpose, all things may very well change in the coming elections. Fate and the Taiwan voters have a way of making things like that happen.

photo: wikimedia commons

India’s Big Buy of American Defense Equipment: What are the Consequences?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

Just over a month ago, on February 25, 2020, on the occasion of President Donald Trump’s visit to India, the US and India signed a massive arms deal providing India with significant upgrades in its military capabilities. The $3 billion deal centered on several different systems:

24 MH-60R Seahawk helicopters
6 Apache attack helicopters
NASAMS II Integrated Air Defense System
30 Sea Guard Drones
4 Poseidon-81 naval aircraft

The equipment, particularly the MH-60R helicopters, will enable not only enable India protect itself, but also to act in accord with the US in its Indo-Pacific strategy. These helicopters have a menu of functions, and one of the most important is its anti-submarine capability. The new helicopters will help the Indian navy to keep track of submarines operating in their area of interest, particularly Chinese submarines.

Traditionally, India was one of Russia’s best customers, and the signs of this are everywhere, particularly in the Indian air force which has a host of legacy Russian aircraft. While the replacement of Indian fighter aircraft is not on the table, America is looking to sell it newest F-21 fighter to India.

Since 2013 Russian sales of arms to India has steadily declined while American sales during the same period have steadily increased. India still keeps its options open in purchasing defense equipment. This has been shown most clearly by its purchase of Russia’s deadly S-400 Triumph air defense system. Turkey has also ordered the S-400, as has China.

With the purchase of modern new equipment and a role in the US Indo-Pacific strategy India is seen as gaining the upper hand in its relations with Pakistan and also with its ongoing engagement with China. India has traditionally held a non-aligned position in its international relations, but now the question seems to be this: How independent can Indian policy remain when American defense equipment and the American global defense strategy have such a big place reserved for its good friend India?

Photo: US Pacific Fleet via flickr

Washington Cherry Blossom Festival Cancelled–Trees Bloom Anyway.

It is March 2020 and the cherry trees are in bloom in Washington D.C. Unfortunately the National Cherry Blossom Festival scheduled from March20–April12 has had its events either cancelled or postponed. The National Cherry Blossom Festival is an annual event first held in 1934, which often draws up to 700,000 visitors.

Cherry trees were first sent by Japan to the United States by the city of Tokyo in 1912. The movement to have cherry trees in the nation’s capital was started in 1885 by Eliza Scidmore, a travel writer and first female board member of the National Geographic Society. Scidmore had seen cherry trees in Japan and had fallen in love with them and wanted to see them adorn Washington D.C.

This year, visitors had to be heartily discouraged from viewing the blossoms to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Even still, many people attempted to view the blossoms. Washington’s cherry trees are of various varieties, but about 70% of them are Some-Yoshino, a hybrid cherry that produces a pale-pink flower much loved by the Japanese of today. Let us hope that in 2021 when the world has returned to “normal” that the cherry blossoms will be able to be enjoyed by many, many people in Washington.

Photo: Courtesy Joe Flood via flickr

US Election 2020 Who’s Who – Kamala Harris.

by David Parmer / Tokyo

On December 3, 2019 Senator Kamala Harris dropped out of the US 2020 presidential race. Funding and low polling and organizational problems were the reasons given for this. Harris had put up a good showing, and 2020 was over for her. Or was it? Or is it?

Kamala Harris, senator from California seems to be back in the 2020 presidential mix, this time not as a possible president, but as a possible vice president.

The race for the 2020 Democratic nomination saw the fortunes of former Vice President Joe Biden take a nosedive in the early days, and then come back strong after South Carolina. From former frontrunner to frontrunner again, Biden was back! And his momentum has been carrying him forward ever since.

Biden’s rivals, like Kamala herself in December, have been dropping out of the race lately. Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Senator Amy Klobuchar are all gone, and soon it looks like Bernie Sanders will see the handwriting on the wall. Where does this leave Senator Kamala Harris? It leaves her as a top contender for Biden’s running mate as vice presidential candidate.

Harris as a prime choice for VP makes an awful lot of sense. She is smart and talented and has real government experience. Before she was a senator from California she was the state’s attorney general, i.e. the head of the state’s legal system. Before that she was a tough prosecutor.

Candidate Harris had a healthcare reform plan in place, had a record of being tough on crime was for sensible immigration but against Trump’s wall and wanted to lower middle class taxes. Nothing radical here. And that is just one thing to recommend her: her agenda was Democratic, but nothing radical.

What VP Biden brings to the 2020 race is “electability” and that is something the Senator Bernie Sanders lacks. The mainstream US media seems determined by sheer force of will to deprive Biden of the concept of “electability.” However the Democratic voters by choosing Biden over Sanders are joining the Biden camp and not the Sanders camp. It is as if the American people, if not the media, realize the absolute importance of electing a Democrat and ending the disastrous presidency of Donald Trump.

And that is why Biden is leading. Now, how does Kamala Harris figure in to all this?

Vice President Biden has two “musts.” He must show himself to be the embodiment of electability and he must unite the Democratic Party. Biden could easily do this with Kamala Harris as his running mate. While there is much excitement among the older generation over Biden, Harris would bring in women, young people, blacks and Latinos, and former Berni and Elizabeth and Pete supporters.

Will this come to pass? The odds are heavily in favor of Harris, but nothing is decided yet. Whether VP Biden has made his decision or not we don’t know. We will just have to wait and see, but one way or another Kamala Harris will be playing on the bigger stage for a long time to come.

Photo: Kamala Harris by Lorie Shaull via flickr

Growing Worldwide Shortage of Cybersecurity Experts.

A recent report issued in late 2019 by ISC2, one of the world’s leading organization for cyber security, points to a pressing need for more and better cyber security professionals around the world. Cyber security specialist focus on the protection of systems and networks from cyber attacks including:

Phishing
Ransomeware
Malware
Social engineering

The ISC2 is a nonprofit membership organization with a 30-year history that provides industry-recognized certification for cyber security professionals. They publish an annual cyber security workforce study to foster understanding about the trends in the industry and to show strategies for strengthening and improving cyber security.

The 2019 report shows a significant shortage of qualified workers in the cyber security field. The organization estimates that there are 2.8 million professionals worldwide, but that there is a need for more than 4.7 million more people in this industry. There is a need for a growth worldwide of 145% to keep up with current demand. In the US alone the industry is estimated to need to grow by 62%. In the Asia-Pacific region (not counting China and India) there is a shortage of about 2.6 million qualified professionals.

The 2019 report also shows that most cyber security professionals are satisfied with their work and career path and are relatively well paid. Those having advanced certification tend to earn more than their peers who are not certified.

ICS2 2019 report on cyber security

Photo: Richard Patterson Comparitech.com

Asian Waters–The Hai River and North China Water Supply.

by David Parmer / Tokyo

The concept behind Professor Joseph Needham’s massive work, Science and Civilization In China, was that in ancient times China was at the leading edge of technology while the rest of the world more or less muddled along. As for water management, records show that water management technology was known and practiced some 1500 years ago during the Sui Dynasty (581-618).

During the Sui, measures were already being taken to control and channel the Haihe or Hai River. Although we can say that the Hai River flows from Beijing to Tianjin and then to the Bohai Sea and that it is more than 1300km in length, this “linear” description would seriously miss the point.

For the Hai is not “a” river, but five bodies of water including the North Canal, the South Canal, the Yongding River, the Daqing River and the Ziya River that flow through Sandong, Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin. And more appropriately, this whole conglomeration can be seen as the Hai River basin encompassing an area of some 318km²

The Hai River in Tianjin is a pretty sight as it flows through the city under a series of attractive low-rise bridges. At night the banks of the river are illuminated, and colorful boats ply the river making for a festive scene. For the greater Bohai basin however, things are not quite so attractive. As with many of China’s other water sources, the twin problems of water pollution and water scarcity also affect the Hai River basin.

Water pollution has increased over the years due to uncontrolled economic development and the use of ground water for agriculture has led to varying degrees of water scarcity. Stakeholders including industry, shipping agriculture and recreation vie for Hai water resources and have all contributed to the water management problems facing the Chinese government.

Efforts to deal with the problems of water scarcity and water pollution were addressed in 2016 by an initiative called the Hai River Basin Project. Those involved were the Chinese government, the World Bank and the Global Environment Facility (GEF). The World Bank advanced US$9.5 billion for the project to create an integrated water and environmental approach to the problem. The project not only examined to Hai River basin, but also its relation to the Bohai Sea. The target for all concerned was to come up with plans to upgrade the water quality and ecosystem sustainability in the Hai River basin.

At the same time, and to the south the government of China was engaged in a civil engineering project of staggering proportions– the South North Water Transfer Project. This scheme called for the transfer of 44.8 billion m³of water from the Yangtze River to North China. This audacious project called for water resources from southern China to be pumped north via three separate and unique routes.

The Eastern Route

This route is basically an improvement on the venerable Grand Canal. Work began in 2002 and after delays was finished in 2014. The water transfer involves 13 pumping stations and a tunnel under the Yellow River traveling 1150 km before finally reaching the Tianjin area.

The Central Route

This route was started in 2003 and completed in 2014. It travels 1246km from the Danjiangkou Reservoir on the Han River to the Beijing area. While this route had the force of gravity on its side and did not require the pumping stations found on the eastern route, it did have serious environmental impacts in the form of the necessity to relocate 300,000 people.

The Western Route

Planned, but yet to be built, the Western route is the most ambitious and most audacious of the three routes. The plan is to divert waters of the upper Yangtze River to the Yellow River. It will cross the Tibetan and Yunnan Plateaus through a combination of dams and tunnels and then cross the Bayankala Mountains to northwest China. Besides being the most challenging of the three routes, the Western route also creates challenges in the areas of transboundry waters. Water diversion for this route would affect the great rivers of China’s neighbors; the Mekong, the Brahmaputra and Indus rivers.

There has been criticism of the South North Water Transfer Project in terms of sustainability, environmental damage and the displacement of peoples. In spite of this water flows north to Beijing, Tianjin and the Hai River basin where it is needed for agriculture and industry. The challenge now that water scarcity has been addressed is to keep water quality high in other areas so they can enjoy the benefits of fresh, clean water, as do the inhabitants of Tianjin on a regular basis. More needs to be done in terms of water conservation and wise water use and tough enforcement of water pollution rules, but attention will have to stay focused on this vital resource, not just for the Hai River but also for all water resources throughout China.

Photo: Tianjin Docsteacher Hai River

Illustration: Hai River Basin Wikipedia

Illustration: South North Water Transfer Project Ran Xin

Happy Lunar New Year 2020!

We at RG21 would like to wish all of our readers in Asia and around the world a very happy, healthy and prosperous Lunar New Year. We hope you have time to spend with family and friends enjoying everything that this festive season offers. And we hope that you are refreshed, rested and ready to challenge the exciting 2020s. We look forward to having you as our readers this year and for many years to come! Gong Xi Fa Cai!

It’s January, and That Means it’s Time for Davos Again.

David Parmer / Tokyo

This year is the 50th anniversary of the founding of the annual winter meeting of the World Economic Forum. The event is usually simply referred to as “Davos” from its location in Davos-Klosters in Switzerland. The event/organization was founded in 1971 by Professor Klaus Schwab from the University of Geneva. The goal of Professor Schwab’s organization is nothing short of having as its target to “improve the state of the world.”

Over the years with numerous meetings and programs like the Davos meetings the organization has attempted to do just this by bringing together leaders from business, government and academia as well as other members of society to attempt to realize that one lofty goal of improving the state of the world.

Reports have the WEF being supported by no less that 1,000 companies paying a very hefty buy-in to become supporters. As the level of support goes up, so does the financial commitment. In 2018 there were around 3,000 participants at the “Winter Davos” (there is also a “Summer Davos” held in China) from 110 countries. It should also be noted that this year the event itself will be carbon neutral and every possible effort will be made to put sustainability as a key touchstone for the organization and execution of the meeting.

This year the theme of the meeting is “Stakeholders For a Cohesive and Sustainable World.” Professor Schwab has charged the participants with producing the Davos Manifesto 2020 to be a guide for the next 50 years.

Topics addressed at this year’s meeting include six key areas:

Ecology
Economy
Technology
Society
Geopolitics
Industry

Another key topic to be addressed at Davos 2020 will be the future of Capitalism. In the past there has been Shareholder Capitalism and State Capitalism but the proposal going forward is suggested to be Stakeholder Capitalism that includes such features as companies and organizations acting responsibly by:

Paying a fair share of taxes
Having zero tolerance for corruption
Upholding human rights in the supply chain
Advocating for a level playing field

Davos is not without its critics who claim the meeting is just a “talking shop” or a meeting of elites who don’t get things done. While it is hard to measure the effects of both the WEF and Davos it might just be a good idea to have people with real influence getting together and at least talking about how to improve the state of the world than doing nothing.

Bottom line: It’s January 2020 and the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum with be held from 21-24 in Davos-Klosters Switzerland.

Photo: Courtesy WEF via flickr

Taiwan Elections 2020–A Done Deal?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

January 11, 2020 is Election Day in Taiwan. Voters will be choosing both a president and a number of legislators in Saturday’s election. Will there be any surprises in the election? All indications seem to indicate that there will not be any surprises.

Most bettors would probably put their money on incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen to be re-elected and to defeat her opponents: KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu and People’s First Party James Soong Chu-yu. Barring some last-minute catastrophic change or event, Tsai will get another 4 years. What will be interesting to see is if the opposition parties gain legislative seats or even a significant number of seats.

President Tasi’s first four years have been unremarkable. Perhaps stability in a tense situation is what she brings to the Taiwan-PRC equation.Tsai’s DPP suffered legislative defeat in 2019 and Tsai resigned as party head to take responsibility. What might have followed was a resurgence of the KMT and the DPP being swept away were it not for the social unrest in Hong Kong. Tsai’s long-standing rejection of Beijing’s One Country, Two Systems offer may have a strong resonance among Taiwan voters looking west.

Cross-Strait relations are always in the forefront when considering Taiwan and the PRC. Relations warmed up under KMT President Ma Jing-yeou but immediately cooled when the DPP took over. At present Beijing has barred individual travel to Taiwan, thus damping the tourist industry and eliminating valuable cash inflow. Also, at the same time, President Tsai has had some success in luring Taiwanese companies home to Taiwan.

Improved ties and a melding of the two Taiwan and Mainland economies would be an attractive outcome for Beijing. For cultural and economic reasons the two entities would draw closer. A virtually seamless economy might make One Country, Two Systems more palatable to many people in Taiwan. In addition this would negate the necessity of a costly military option that would bring negative outcomes to all parties involved.

Some reports say that President Tsai and the DPP might be working on improving these cross-Strait relations, and this has stolen some thunder from Han Ku-yu’s program. However, as long as the DPP and President Tsai do not reaffirm the “1992 Consensus” and the “Once China” policy, it is likely that there will be little significant warming of relations between Taiwan and the PRC.

In the beginning of 2020 China has its hands full with the situation in Hong Kong and its public relations fail in convincing the world of what it describes as its fair treatment of its Uighur population. So it is unlikely that Beijing will ratchet up tensions with Taiwan (barring the crossing of the reddest of red lines, i.e. a declaration of Taiwan independence) in the short term, and that it will be pretty much “business as usual” in Taiwan in 2020 following the election of January 11.

Photo: National Renewable Energy Lab via flickr

China 2020 – Goodbye Cash, Hello Digital Currency?

by David Parmer / Tokyo

North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un says the DPRK may give the US a surprise “Christmas present” in 2019. This could be anything from a nuclear test to sending more long-range missiles out over the ocean or over Japan. Whatever Kim does will be “big news.” However, bigger and more important news seems to be forthcoming from China.

Reports suggest that China is on the verge of launching the world’s first central bank digital currency. The People’s Bank Of China (PCOB) has been working on digital currency for five years, and now a small-scale launch in the eastern cities of Shenzhen and Suzhou might be just around the corner.

While China is “pro” digital currency, it is “anti” crypto currency. China has banned Bitcoin and coin exchanges and has banned Initial Coin Offering (ICO) since 2017, and overseas exchanges are not able to serve Chinese customers.

In October 2019 President Xi Jinping gave the green light to for further digitalization by stating that China should embrace the blockchain technology needed for digital currency. One big upside for China with the introduction of an accountable digital currency is to create the real possibility of the internationalization of the Yuan. This will aid in China’s Belt and Road scheme, and ultimately challenge the long time supremacy of the US dollar.

A national digital currency would go a long way to putting an end to China’s nagging problem of currency counterfeiting. Moreover, online payments in China are dominated by Ali Pay and We Chat Pay and the new currency would theoretically dovetail with this trend toward a truly cashless-society.

The bottom line is that while the world might focus on Kim Jong-un’s dramatic antics toward the end of 2019, the really important developments are taking place in China without as much fanfare. Chia’s development and immanent launch of a secure, national digital currency leading to the internationalization of the Yuan is a story without fireworks, but one worth watching very closely.

(Compiled from online sources.)

Photo: DP/Tokyo